Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 210053 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
753 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...KBRO radar shows the current convection over the
region forming up along and west of a line roughly from the
McAllen to Corpus Christi area south southwest fairly quickly. The
latest surface analysis indicates that the cold front is likely
located just north of Deep South Texas despite the presence of the
of east northeast or northeast winds around the area. Surface
dewpoints around the RGV remain pretty high in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Lightning remains pretty active in the ongoing
convection with strikes reported still as fair north as Corpus
Christi. So believe that we still have some fairly unstable air in
place over the area. Until the drier air to our north pushes
further south in the wake of the cold front expect fairly decent
convection to linger on for a few more hours expecially near the
MFE area. Outflow for convection earlier this afternoon appears to
have stabilized the atms over the eastern counties. So will limit
the potential convection to the MFE area over the next few hours.
Drier and more stable air filtering steadily southwards over the
next 24 hours will maintain general VFR conditions for the RGV


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night): The cold front continue to
march through the Hill Country and approaching Deep South Texas.
The front will likely reach Deep South Texas around and after
sunset. An inverted trough the coastal waters and extreme West
Gulf of Mexico has been a focus for showers and thunderstorms
today. Some compressional heating ahead of the front and limited
shower activity have allowed a few locations to the reach the
lower to mid 90s this afternoon. The cold front will finally pass
through the region later this evening, with a final round of
showers lingering near coast over coastal waters through Friday
morning. Most significant cold air advection will reach the area
Friday morning after sunrise. As a result, lows tonight may drop
to the mid 60s. The frontal zone is expected to slow and
remain around KBRO through Friday. This will keep the threat for
showers continuing for the lower valley near the coast on Friday.
The rest of the region will see gradual clearing as the drier air
moves in with the core of the surface high.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday Night): The associated
trough axis will slowly shift east through the weekend. Thickness
layers will increase on Sunday with the upper level ridge axis
builds over the Southern Plains late Saturday through Monday.
Moisture return becomes an issue next week as models reveal some
uncertainty Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Meanwhile, Saturday morning will start cool start and remain dry
as high pressure remain in play at the surface and aloft. Surface
high will build over Central Gulf Coast on Saturday but shift east
Sunday through Monday. As a result, dry will retreat and shallow
moisture return Sunday and deep moisture Monday and Tuesday.

GFS continue to trend a more aggressive with deeper moisture and
higher pops than Euro. A weak short wave is expected to track on
front side of ridge from Big Bend to Central Texas may provide
lift over forecast area Monday and Tuesday. Will maintain 20 POPS
for next week during this time. The rest of the week with remain
dry as a ridge builds over Western Texas and NW Mexico.

MARINE:(Now through Friday night): Winds will remain light
through sunset with seas around 2 feet. The cold front will track
across the coastal waters later this evening with a surge of
northerly winds reaching 20 knots. Small Craft Advisories remain
posted this evening through Friday. Gusty north winds will build
seas up to 8 to 9 feet offshore through the short term period. The
front is also expected to be accompanied scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms.

Saturday through Monday night...Surface high will build over the
northwest Gulf and allow winds and seas will gradual lower Friday
night into Saturday. Small craft advisories to linger into Friday
night with seas slower to lower. High pressure builds over the
Gulf Sunday then moves east next week with a moderate east to
southeast flow returning. Some showers or even a few thunderstorms
may enter the picture next Sunday night trough Tuesday as Gulf
moisture returns along with the southeast flow.


GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM
     CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.



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