Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 250002
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
702 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TSRA WINDING DOWN ACROSS
ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES CURRENTLY WITH THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2000
LATER TONIGHT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE ABOVE 12 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO
RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
HAS FIRED OFF A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONV THAT IS STRADDLING THE RIO
GRANDE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL CONV IS FIRING
FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE BUT WILL LIKELY DIE OFF AS IT GETS CLOSER TO
THE MORE STABLE OUTFLOW LEFT OVER FROM THE SEA BREEZE CONV.
OTHERWISE EXPECT THE CONV TO MOVE FURTHER WEST AND DISIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES WEST AND THE DIURNAL HEATING
DIES OFF.

THE 500 MB RIDGING WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN STATES THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A GENERAL BROAD
WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN HANGING NEAR THE TX COASTLINE
EXTENDING OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEX. SOME BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL MOVE SOUTH SOUTHWEST LATE TOMORROW AND WILL EDGE INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CONV
POTENTIAL TOMORROW NIGHT.

WILL GO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WARMER ECMWF AND MAV TEMPS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WHICH TEND TO LEAN CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE. THE NAM
LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COOL ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN LIGHT
OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WELL ESTABLISHED H5
RIDGINGFROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES INTO THE GULF IN THE SHORT
TERMWILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHILE GIVING WAY TO
DEEPER H5TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHEAST
GULF BY MIDWEEK.

INITIALLY...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST TO INCREASE
MUCHOVER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FROM MID
TOLATEWEEK...BUT THE NEW PATTERN WILL CREATE NEARBY INSTABILITY
ANDCONDITIONS MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO INCOMING GULF CONVECTION
ANDEVEN DAILY SEA BREEZE ACITIVITY.

WORTH WATCHING IS A LOW PRESS SYS ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSERANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVERTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF TENDS TO CURVE THE
DEVELOPED SYSTEM TOTHE NORTH ALONG THE BAHAMAS AT AN ULTIMATELY
SOMEWHAT SLOWER PACETHAN THE GFS BY THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS IT TOWARD AND EVENINTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHWEST
GULF. THE PATH WILL DEPENDSOMEWHAT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITEDSTATES. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE
A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BE LEFTBEHIND OVER THE GULF BY THE
WEEKEND...TURNING INTO AN INVERTEDTROUGH OF ITS OWN AND LEADING TO
A RENEWED ROUND OF UNSETTLEDCOASTAL WEATHER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING PREVAILING OVER THE GULF OF MEX EXPECT THE MSL FIELD TO
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND
SEAS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
HELPMAINTAIN LARGE SCALE TRANQUILITY OVER THE MARINE AREAS. A
WEAKPRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE GULF WILL ALSO POINT
TOWARDGENERALLY FAIR MARINE WEATHER. EVEN SO...STREAMER AND
COASTALSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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