Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 101710 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1210 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms sweeping
northwestward in waves this afternoon, with one wave now reaching
KMFE and one about 30 miles south of KBRO. These bands will
continue to sweep through today, with TEMPO TSRA at all locations,
with prevailing SCT CU field and blowoff cirrus overhead.
Conditions become more tranquil overnight with loss of daytime
heating, with only an isolated chance for a shower at KBRO is any
showers move in off the Gulf. A few shower may develop again
tomorrow in daytime heating, but drier air moving in from the
north will decrease rain chances and cloud cover through the
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across deep
south Texas this morning. Deep tropical moisture from Tropical
Storm Franklin will continue to surge northward, well displaced
from its center. KBRO radar currently shows isolated to scattered
convection across the lower Texas Gulf waters. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop and move northwest across
the area today. VFR conditions should prevail through the next 24
hours, but MVFR conditions will be possible in any of the heavier
convection. Will continue to mention a TEMPO group at all local
airports for convective activity late this morning into the
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 443 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Recently downgrade Tropical Storm
Franklin made landfall as a hurricane overnight along the eastern
Mexican coast, well to the south of the Rio Grande valley. The main
impacts from Franklin will be along the lower Texas coast as swells
from the storm move towards the coast today. Expect the risk of rip
currents to remain high today and tonight. In addition...the swells
will provide high surf and minor tidal overwash near high tide along
area beaches this morning through late this evening. In addition to
the coastal impacts...rain chances will increase this morning into
the afternoon hours as tropical moisture from Franklin surges across
northeast Mexico and the Rio Grande valley. Precipitable water
values between 2.25 to 2.40 inches expected across deep south Texas
today. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible today. The MAV/MET
MOS POPS look a bit high so will lean towards the drier ECMWF for
pops today. Abundant cloud cover and increase rain chances should
keep high temperatures generally down into the low to mid 90s area
wide.

Rain chances will diminish tonight as Franklin continues to weaken
and moves further inland across eastern Mexico. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the mid to upper 70s inland to around 80
near the coast. The combination of lingering moisture and daytime
heating should trigger some sea breeze convection across the CWA on
Friday. High temperatures Friday will range from lower 90s near the
coast to around 100 inland under partly cloudy skies. Elevated
dewpoints will support heat index values of 105 to 110 across
portions of the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands Friday
afternoon.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): Unfortunately, 500 mb
high pressure will assert itself during the period as it remains
generally centered over the Lone Star State and dominant over Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. With precipitable water
values that will hover near 1.5 inches, dry weather is forecast
for the BRO CWFA. With no chance of rain and limited cloud cover
also likely, temperatures will soar to well above normal levels.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds
around 8 knots with gusts near 12 knots and seas of 6.6 feet (mostly
southeast swell) with a period of 9 seconds at 03 CST/08 UTC. A
small craft advisory remains in effect for the lower Texas Gulf
waters today and tonight due to hazardous seas. Light east to
southeast winds will prevail across the lower Texas coast today and
tonight as Franklin continues to move further inland across eastern
Mexico and surface high pressure continues across the northeast Gulf
of Mexico. Marine conditions are expected to gradually improve
tonight and Friday as swell from Franklin subsides.

Friday Night through Wednesday: Generally moderate winds and seas
are expected along the Lower Texas Coast with high pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico interacting with lower pressure inland. Small
Craft Exercise Caution is possible on the Laguna Madre Sunday
through Wednesday due to winds.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251-
     256-257.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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