Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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539
FXUS64 KBRO 261955
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500MB
TROUGH TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD PULL UP STATIONARY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND RETURN NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY.

FOR TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND
LOW LEVEL INVERSION LOWERS TOWARDS THE SURFACE. WINDS MAINTAIN
MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO QUICKLY ALLOW HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RECOVER...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST...AND ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARM AND SULTRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS AND MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT ON THE
VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY. WEAK FRONT OR DRY LINE TRACKS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD PULL UP STATIONARY
JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 281/69E CORRIDOR AND MAY REACH THE
NORTHERN COASTLINE IN KENEDY COUNTY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
CAMERON COUNTY. MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS LIMITED AND STRONG CAP IN THE
MORNING LIMITS MOST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE CAP WEAKENS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT MAY HAVE ENOUGH FORCING
BEFORE SURFACE MOISTURE MIXES OUT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ANYTIME BETWEEN 11AM AND 7 PM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE KENEDY
COUNTY AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCES. SPC
KEEPS OUR REGION IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WITH ANY SEVERE
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH WHERE THE THE BETTER
LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE AS HOT OR MAY
EVEN EXCEED YESTERDAY`S HIGH ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND NO COLD OR COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH THE WEAK FRONT
RETREATING NORTHWARD AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS. LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND A MODEST SOUTH WIND
OFF THE GULF TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL IN THE
EAST AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS MEANDER ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. THE FIRST WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY
WHILE THE SECOND DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN ITS WAKE THEN
MOVES BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS CAPPED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLIES WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE ABOVE 925MB. AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...IT WILL SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS. BEST FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE
RANCHLANDS AND FURTHER NORTH. WINDS QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE MODELS DIVERGE
ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURS BEGINNING
MONDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. ANOTHER FRONT IN
THE AREA AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE COULD LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT AND PLACES THE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FURTHER
NORTH AND A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELAXES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PERSIST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK FRONT PULLING UP
STATIONARY WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ADVERSE AND WINDS STRENGTHEN AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCEC CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATER THURSDAY WITH SCA POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS AND AS WELL AS
SATURDAY FOR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS
SATURDAY. A RETURN TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  90  75  87 /   0  20   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          76  92  75  90 /   0  20   0  10
HARLINGEN            75  94  73  93 /   0  20   0  10
MCALLEN              74  97  74  94 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      73 100  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  82  75  83 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD



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