Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 120600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
100 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings and light northwest winds
prevail across deep south Texas early this morning. Brownsville
radar continues to indicate some convection across the Gulf
waters with patches of stratiform rainfall across Cameron county.
Expect a mix of low-end VFR/MVFR ceilings overnight into the mid-
morning hours with ceilings dropping to around 2000 feet at times.
Ceilings are expected to gradually increase to VFR levels by this
afternoon as slightly drier air moves overhead. Light northwest
winds this morning will turn to the northeast and east by late
this afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...MVFR conditions will dominate the next 24 hours as low
level moisture remains in place across Deep South Texas. Most of
the rainfall has ended, but light to moderate onshore flow will
continue to push moisture into the region through the night.
Little change in the low level winds tomorrow will mean a
continuation of lowered cigs well into the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Low to mid level
moisture will remain high across northeast Mexico and the Rio
Grande valley tonight with the 500mb ridge across the northern
Gulf coast providing an easterly flow aloft. At the surface...the
combination of a stationary frontal boundary across the northwest
Gulf of Mexico and a coastal trough across the western Gulf will
continue to cause scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms...
some elevated...across portions of the lower Texas coast and
offshore into Thurs. Some drier air will move into the northwest
Gulf Thurs afternoon and rain chances...mainly across the coastal
sections of the CWA...will diminish Thursday into Thurs night.
Temperatures will be near normal tonight into Thursday before
returning to above normal Thurs night as an onshore flow returns
late Thursday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Unsettled conditions will
continue right through the weekend. Ridging aloft will be centered
over the northwest Gulf on Friday, limiting stronger convection,
but moisture return on a generally east fetch based on high
pressure over the north Gulf will support sea breeze convection
under a mix of clouds and sun and warmer than normal temperatures.
Similar conditions will occur on Saturday.

The mid level ridge will break down slightly on Sunday and
surface winds will back slightly to northeast with the models
suggesting a weak low level circulation in the south central Gulf.
In addition, a cold front will push south into Texas. The front
will arrive Sunday night to Monday morning, bringing north winds
and slightly cooler temperatures, lower 80s on Monday as opposed
to upper 80s on Sunday. A weak coastal trough will develop Monday
into Tuesday in the wake of the front.

Abundant dry air will filter in late Tuesday through Wednesday as
high pressure spreads over the area. A return to more typical
conditions will arrive Wednesday as winds turn to southeast and
cloudiness decreases.

Tonight through Thursday night: Seas were near 6 feet with north
to northeast winds near 18 knots at buoy019 and near 4 feet with
east to northeast winds near 12 knots at buoy002 this afternoon.
Moderate to strong north to northeast winds across the coastal
waters this afternoon will diminish late tonight even as a coastal
trough across the western Gulf of Mexico continues to produce
showers and thunderstorms offshore the lower Texas coast. Will
continue to mention SCEC for the offshore waters this evening for
winds and seas. Light to moderate northeast winds late tonight
will diminish and veer to the east on Thursday. Light east winds
will prevail across the western Gulf as the pressure gradient
continues to weaken across the lower TX coast.

Friday through Monday Night: An easterly fetch will develop
Friday through Saturday night as high pressure controls the north
Gulf. Light east winds and low to moderate seas will prevail.
Winds will shift to light northeast Sunday in response to
slightly lower pressure forming near the southwest Gulf and ahead
of a cold front in north Texas. The front will push through Sunday
night bringing fresh north winds and higher seas. A brief period
of low end small craft advisory conditions will be possible on
Monday in the wake of the front. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along the front and along the
coast in the wake of the front in weak coastal troughing.




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