Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 071944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS APPEAR
TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE TODAY WITH FAIRLY FLAT CU BEING STRETCHED
ALONG FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE LFC AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY STILL
CREEP UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES TO
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE FAIRLY ABUNDANT LOW LAYER
MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY...MID AND LOW LEVEL GULF RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE
STRETCHING WESTWARD AS IT DOES. THIS SHOULD STEP WIND SPEEDS UP
ANOTHER 2 TO 3 MPH IN THE AREA AND FURTHER STRETCH OUT ANY SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES FURTHER LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW LAYER RH
SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER TOMORROW THAN WE STARTED THE DAY OUT WITH
TODAY AS WELL. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO
THE LAST FEW...MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER IN SPOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 5 TO 15 MPH UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A 500MB LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTH
AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A RESULT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  92  79  91 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  94  78  93 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            76  96  77  94 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              77  98  77  96 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  98  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  89  80  88 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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