Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221804 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ZAPATA TO RIO GRANDE CITY TO SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND. AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN KENEDY COUNTY TO EAST OF HRL TO NEAR BRO. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID
MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SOME LOCALIZED THICKER FOG NOW AT HRL...WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNUP. LOOKS LIKE IFR CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
BACKING TO EAST AND NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE AREA TODAY.

PATCHY LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. LOW CLOUD DECKS WILL LIFT BY AFTERNOON
AS A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SETS UP. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO
THE MID 80S TODAY. LOW END POPS...SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE FRONT AS A FOCUS...BUT GUIDANCE
NUMBERS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER THAN THE GENEROUS 20 TO 30 PERCENT
ADVERTISED FOR TODAY.

DRY AIR WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH SOMEWHAT OF
AN RH GRADIENT FROM THE 30S NORTH TO THE 60S SOUTH BY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO EAST WHILE MORE HUMID AIR REMAINS OR RECOVERS IN AREAS
CLOSE TO THE RIVER. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH NO
RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MORNING FOG MAY SET UP AGAIN
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS BUT WITH A
STILL SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSION.

SATURDAY WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR THE UPPER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FROM MCALLEN WEST ALONG THE RIVER AS MOISTURE
POOLS ON THE MEX SIDE OF THE RIVER AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST OVER MEXICO. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80S WITH
LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS. A 500 MB TROUGH...THE RESULT OF OPENING AND
FILLING 500 MB LOW PRESSURE...WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LONE STAR STATE. MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OCCURRING
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME...AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN A GENERAL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY COURTESY OF A FLAT ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE BRO CWFA. DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW
SEAS WILL DOMINATE WITH A WEAK SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL SHIFT TO EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...COMPLETING THE RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS...FEATURING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS...ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THIS PERIOD...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN BECOME ADVERSE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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