Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 162339
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
539 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS TO LOWER AS WINDS DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS FILLING IN BEHIND. THE TAFS INDICATE LOW END MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPORARILY IFR IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MID MORNING
MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS
TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AND NOT LET
UP UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO OUR
NORTH HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE MUCH OF CENTRAL TX AND IS PROGRESSING
STEADILY SOUTHWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FROM
THE MAV/MET AND THE ECMWF IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER VERSUS THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS
BUT NOT BY MUCH. SURFACE OBS FROM CENTRAL TX INDICATE PLENTY OF COLD
AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SO EXPECT A
PRETTY QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THROUGHOUT LATE TONIGHT...MONDAY AND TUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE MAIN ISSUE TO DEAL WITH THIS AFTERNOON CONCERNS ADVISORIES AND
POTENTIAL ADVISORIES. THE POST FRONTAL GRADIENT FLOW APPEARS TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO FORCE THE
SURFACE WINDS UP INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY FOR THE EAST
HALF OF THE BRO CWA. THE PGF WILL DECREASE ENOUGH LATER TOMORROW TO
ALLOW THE WINDS TO FALL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE EDGING TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT LOWER FOR MINS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT AS BOTH THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS ARE COMING IN A
LITTLE BIT COLD VERSUS YESTERDAYS SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR NEAR FREEZING TEMPS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA WHERE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPS FOR BOTH HBV AND BKS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OF ON MENTIONING ANY FREEZING TEMPS OR FREEZE WATCHES AT THIS TIME
IN ORDER TO SEE IF THE SHORT TERM MODELS MAINTAIN THIS TREND ON THE
FUTURE RUNS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND STRONG CAA WILL RESULT
IN PRETTY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. HOWEVER CURRENT FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES APPEAR TO REMAIN
JUST ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REGION. SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON THIS ADVISORY FOR NOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES POOLING
AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ACCORDINGLY POPS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE FROPA AND WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE COASTLINE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM WILL SETTLE INTO TX/LA AREA
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN /BETTER CHANCES ALBEIT SLIGHT WILL EXIST NEAR THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS/. THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SFC
WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL HANG AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY FOR NOW WITH SOUTHERLY CONTINUING
AHEAD OF A STRONGER S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY AHEAD OF WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
EAST WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE WITH 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
INCREASING TO LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY AND MID/UPPER 70S TO APPROACHING
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE MARINE WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE PRETTY QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AS
THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN
THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. THE PGF
WILL START TO WEAKEN LATE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE
WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER EXPECT THE SCA
CONDITIONS TO LIKELY PERSIST ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MARINE
FORECAST AND ADVISORY ALIGNMENT LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ELEVATED SEAS AND STRONG WINDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE MODERATE FRIDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS DECREASING BUT EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  41  52  43  60 /  30  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          41  50  42  60 /  30  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            42  51  38  59 /  30  10  10  20
MCALLEN              43  53  38  57 /  30  10   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      43  55  35  56 /  20  10   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   45  54  48  61 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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