Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 231719
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED AND MIXED OUT SETTING UP A DAY
OF FAVORABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER FOG EVENT THIS MORNING AND A
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RESULT IN A
SHIFTING OF WINDS TO THE NORTH BY AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL FURTHER ELIMINATE ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OR FOG. EXPECTING VFR
FOR NOW. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT THE AIR TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 14-15Z. VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN. DRIER AIR AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW FOR
THE FOG TO BURN OFFSHORE AFTER 15Z FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...IF YOU COULDN`T STAND THE
WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS IT WILL BE A CLEAR DAY ALL AROUND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH DRIER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
TODAY. THE FRONT ARRIVES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MOVING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

TODAY...RESIDUAL MORNING FOG...SOME DENSE...BURNS OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. WESTERLY WIND AND SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT AND 850MB TEMPS
REACHING 18-20C WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY, WARM AND DRY DAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 84-90 DEGREES AND CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN
THIS RANGE.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY FALL
IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. SLOW AT FIRST BUT THAN A MORE RAPID DROP
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM. EXPECTING AT
LEAST A 10 DEGREE DROP OVER THIS MORNING LOWS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOST LOCATIONS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NEAR
60 DEGREE IS LIKELY.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SETTLING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST GULF BY THE END OF THE
DAY. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN AROUND 12-16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY`S ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY/...LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS REGARDING THE HOLIDAY WEEK FORECAST. FOR THE MOST
PART...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER FOR TRAVELERS ESPECIALLY THOSE
WANTING TO GET AWAY FROM THE EARLY SEASON CHILL THAT HAS GRIPPED THE
UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF NOVEMBER. THE
CRITICAL TRAVEL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOOKS AS CLOSE TO PERFECT AS ONE CAN GET FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF
TEXAS.

FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SOME SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURE AND
PERHAPS CLOUD COVER.  GFS REMAINS THE MILDEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY 6 TO 9 DEGREES HIGHER THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF. CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOME MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECKS TO INSULATE THINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROUGH (POSITIVE TILT) THAT DIGS
INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S RANCHLANDS AND 50-55 VALLEY.

AS FOR TUESDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND SWINGING
THROUGH...1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FALL TO FAIRLY RARE LEVELS THIS
FAR SOUTH. GFS ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH VALUES AT 550 TO 558 DM FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AT MIDDAY WHILE ECMWF AT 546 TO 552 DM.  AT THE SAME
TIME...GFS POKES SOME VERTICAL MOTION AND THICKER LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY FOR THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
ACCOMPANIED BY THE BRISK NORTH WIND. GFS SATURATES COLUMN IN THE
LOWER AND PERHAPS MID VALLEY BETWEEN 825 AND 650 MB...AND WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT SUPER DRY COMPARED WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND WILL ADD A 20 PERCENT CHANCE TO CAMERON AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH NOON.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NO REASON TO
ADJUST CURRENT FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE COOLER LEVELS. MAY
NUDGE THE LOWER VALLEY DOWNWARD BASED ON CLOUD COVER THROUGH NOON OR
SO...BUT ONLY A HAIR SINCE FULL SUNSHINE RETURNS QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL LAY DOWN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LEADING TO THE CHILLIEST
MORNING OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY...AND SEE GOOD REASON TO NUDGE LOWS
DOWN TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
RANCHLANDS AND 40 TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMO DAY OF THE WEEK...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY...LIGHT WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER CHILL DOWN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD
MODERATE LOWS JUST A HAIR UPWARD. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT BASE OF INVERSION (3500 FEET OR SO) FOR FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS BY NOON IN THE LOWER/MID VALLEY BUT CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. A PERFECT DAY TO GET OUT AND BASK IN THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WARMTH WHICH MAY APPROACH 80 AWAY FROM THE COAST
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW GRADUALLY RETURNS HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH IT WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND RGV BUT STILL RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE HUMID WITH A
FEW MORE FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ALONG/NEAR US 77...BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN SCATTERED FARTHER WEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE COAST.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....
MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SO WILL DROP ALL ADVISORIES. THE
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 3 AND 7 AM MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH
MARGINAL CONDITIONS ON THE LAGUNA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND ROUGHER TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A 1026+
HIGH THAT QUICKLY SCOOTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OFFSHORE. WILL BUMP WINDS/SEAS ANOTHER NOTCH...WITH SEAS
PERHAPS TOUCHING 7 TO 8 FEET FOR A LITTLE WHILE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE A FAIRLY QUICK SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER LAGUNA MADRE BAY.  EITHER WAY...EARLY
ARRIVERS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHO WANT TO GET IN A FISHING TRIP
SHOULD HAVE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH PERHAPS
SOME RESIDUAL ROUGHNESS WEDNESDAY MORNING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE SWELL
SUBSIDES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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