Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 170551 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are generally expected through the
overnight hours...although higher moisture levels may lead to
brief MVFR cigs near daybreak. Inverted troughing over the area
will allow for showers and some isolated thunderstorm activity
especially during the late morning and afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 716 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...As the daytime heating diminishes this evening the
atms is stabilizing slowly limiting the convective coverage across
the RGV. The latest KBRO reflectivity shows that the current
convection is west of Interstate 69C and is moving northwards
where the higher afternoon temps is maintaining the instability a
little bit longer. So expect VFR conditions to prevail across the
three RGV airports through the evening and overnight hours. Expect
the deep layer tropical moisture to persist into tomorrow. Enough
daytime heating will occur tomorrow to help fire up some more sct
convection which could result in some periods of mvfr conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night): Unsettled weather
conditions are expected to continue through the period. The surge
of tropical moisture that moved onshore this morning has been
slowly lifting north and west across the Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas, with the best moisture pushing across the 281
corridor. Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished across
the eastern counties, but further inland, where cloud cover has
not been as prominent and greater heating has occurred, scattered
showers are developing. For the remainder of the afternoon, expect
scattered coverage across the eastern counties and more focus out
west. The combination of relatively slow movement and deep
moisture will allow for some locally heavy rainfall, with some
locations picking up an inch or two rather quickly. Cloud cover
and precip have resulted in temperatures struggling to push into
the mid to upper 80s thus far today and previous max temps for the
day likely will not be realized. Moving into tonight, rain chances
will linger out west this evening but will wane as daytime heating
ends. Activity is expected to redevelop over the coastal waters
tonight and could work into the coastal counties during the early
morning hours. Wednesday the upper low weakens and diminishes.
Moisture will be slightly lower, but still abundant, and rain
chances will continue,though not as high as today. Scattered
convection to develop on seabreeze and remaining boundaries. Cloud
cover and precip should result in another day of below normal

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): Low to mid level moisture
will remain high across most of the state Thursday even as the
500mb ridge across the southeast United States begins to build
westward into south Texas. Will mention a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday before subsidence increases across the CWA
through the rest of week into the weekend. The 12z ECMWF
continues to prog a weak 500mb trough moving into west TX Friday
into Saturday. Will mention a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the rest of the week into the weekend as a
result. A 500mb trough is expected to move across the central
U.S. Sunday and move across the eastern U.S. Monday weakening the
upper level ridge across south TX. This will provide a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the
forecast period before the 500mb ridge builds across the northwest
Gulf of Mexico Monday into Tuesday.

Now through Wednesday Night...A fairly weak pressure gradient
will maintain light to moderate east to southeasterly winds and
low seas across the lower Texas coastal waters through the period.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has waned a bit this afternoon
but is expected to redevelop overnight and continue Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Light southeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Thursday with a broad area of high
pressure across the eastern United States extending into the Gulf
of Mexico. The pressure gradient is expected to remain weak across
the western Gulf of Mexico Friday before a slight increase on
Saturday. Light to moderate southeast winds will prevail across
the lower Texas coast through the rest of the week into the


.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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