Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 152341
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
641 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Little change in the ongoing aviation forecast. Winds
have decreased with sunset, and should remain light from the north
overnight. Sky cover will begin to thin out later this evening,
but will return just before sunrise. Latest trend showing breezier
conditions for the day Thursday, so have nudged wind speed
upwards.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):Fairly benign weather
pattern expected during the short term as a weakening upper level
ridge over the SW slides east into Texas Thursday. Surface high
pressure shifting east across the midwest and southeastern US will
reinforce the southeasterly flow across the region, continuing to
modify the airmass, increasing low level moisture and allowing for
the rebound of temperatures. Temperatures climb through the period,
with near to slightly above normal temperatures. Adjusted maximum
temperatures up a degree or two for tomorrow based on less cloud
cover and increased winds and nudged low temps up a degree or so
overnight Thursday. Breezy conditions continue to look likely by
mid morning Thursday as the pressure gradient strengthens across
the region, especially for the coastal counties.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday):As a large scale high
pressure ridge settles over the Intermountain West and builds
into the Plains over the weekend and early next week a persistent
and steady state forecast will ensue. Models remain in good
consistency and agreement among all major weather elements with
no significant features or cold fronts impacting the CWA through
the long term period. Atmosphere remains relatively dry with the
typical moderate to high low level moisture in the lowest 5000
feet and very dry air above the 850mb levels. Overall, the
uneventful tranquil weather pattern will continue. The RGV and
Deep South Texas can expect a partly to mostly cloudy skies at
times, slightly above seasonal temperatures and a fresh breeze
each afternoon. Models temperature guidance also remain in good
consistency and agreement showing the gradual warm up through the
weekend and then a steady state temperatures regime with highs and
lows ranging 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

MARINE:(Now through Thursday Night): Favorable marine conditions
will continue through tonight as surface high pressure over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico maintains moderate southeasterly winds and
low seas. As this surface high moves east across the southern US and
low pressure develops across the plains, winds will increase to the
15 to 20 knot range and seas will build, especially over the
offshore Gulf waters. SCEC to low end SCA conditions are possible by
Thursday afternoon, continuing through Thursday night.

Friday through Monday...Broad high pressure extending across the
northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain a steady state wind and sea
regime off the Lower Texas Coast this weekend and early next
week. The pressure gradient will be the strongest Friday as low
pressure along a cold front over NW Texas combines with the ridge
over the Gulf. Winds and seas may approach or obtain exercise
caution levels Friday afternoon and evening. The front retreats
northward and the low weakens over the weekend with wind and seas
gradually lowering to moderate levels. No rain is expected but can
not rule out a rouge light shower especially overnight and early
in the morning.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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