Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 270846
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
346 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
MOVING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281/INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE...EAST OF
THIS DESIGNATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE NEIGHBORING LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SOME
OF THE ACTIVITY...MAINLY OUT WEST...HAS BEEN HEAVY AND PERSISTENT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLOOD ADVISORIES.

TODAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN COMBINE WITH INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSED 500
MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. KEPT
THE INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS THEY APPEARED REASONABLE BASED
ON THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION REGIME.

TONIGHT...500 MB LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
WHILE FILLING...WHILE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SINK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE NORTH. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BECOMING ISOLATED FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE
INLAND AREAS...BUT REMAINING LOW-END SCATTERED OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...FULLER EFFECT OF THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BE FELT
...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED INLAND AND SCATTERED OVER
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE DRIER AIR...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FELT INHERITED DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL GIVEN THE LESSER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER...SO INCREASED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...WHICH ALSO RESULTED IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO CRP.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTH
EAST PLAINS WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. RIDGE BUILDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH VEERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA.
DRY AIR INFILTRATES INTO THE AREA LIMITING ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP FAVORING THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THE CONCENTRATE MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THAT AREA BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE 90S TUESDAY WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY KEEPING SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL LOW OVER
WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO STRENGTHENS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE
AREA SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. INHERITED 20 PERCENT OVER THE COAST WERE LEFT AS
BUT EXTENDED THE POTENTIAL FROM HIGHWAY 77 EAST. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERNS PLAINS MAINTAINING THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THE ENERGY OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FRIDAY
AND MIGRATING EASTWARD WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EAST. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER MAKING IT TO THE
CWA BY 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS EARLIER REACHING THE VALLEY
FRIDAY SOMETIME AROUND 12Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN WILL INCREASE
BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY LEFT SILENT TEN. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK TO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWS WILL REACH THE MID TO LOW 70S ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID 70S ALONG THE RIVER.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AROUND
16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 6 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO CREATE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS
AND LOWER SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD POSSIBLY BE CLOSE
TO SCA BUT A SCEC IS DEFINITE IN THE HIGHER END. THURSDAY
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AND WE KEEP THAT SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT NE DUE TO ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MORE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND COULD BUILD SEAS TO SCA.

COASTAL FLOODING...A LONG FETCH OF BREEZY WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES RUN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS...PRODUCING ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST...AND THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ON THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM NOW
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  76  89  76 /  70  30  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          86  74  90  75 /  70  30  20  10
HARLINGEN            86  73  90  74 /  70  30  20  10
MCALLEN              87  73  91  74 /  60  30  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  73  90  73 /  60  30  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  77  88  78 /  70  30  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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