Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 280538
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
ASSOCIATED TO A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS...EXPECT SE
WINDS TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH VFR. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALOFT
ASSOCIATED TO THIS BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE. THIS WILL PUSH INLAND
SAHARAN DUST AND RESULT IN MORE HAZE CONCENTRATED IN THE AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THIS CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY AS INVERSION MIXES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN A
FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THAT MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS FOR A
FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. 13/MH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HOT...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WEST GULF. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM 75 TO 80 TONIGHT...
AND ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...SLIGHTLY LOWER AT THE
BEACHES...TO TRIPLE DIGITS WEST OF I-69C. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REACH THE CENTURY MARK BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE MORE HUMID COASTAL
COUNTIES...AND WILL SETTLE AROUND 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES IS DRIER AIR PUSHING FARTHER EAST.
THEN...LOOK FOR 75 TO 80 DEGREE LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALL THE WHILE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST...LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND MODERATE TO BREEZY DURING THE DAY. AS STRONG HEATING
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CST WILL TIGHTEN...WITH
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE... BROWNSVILLE...BAYVIEW AND
HARLINGEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER N
TX/OK/AR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHIFTS WEST AND IS CENTERED
OVER THE DESERT SW BY FRIDAY. A SWATH OF HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THE GREATEST MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. EVEN SO
PWATS INCREASE TO 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES INLAND AND NEAR 2 INCHES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS BUMP IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW MORE
CLOUDS...A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AND COULD PROVIDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BY
SUNDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD AND DRIER AIR MOVES BACK
IN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS STILL IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEST AND MID TO UPPER 90S EAST.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A HEAT LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO IS INTERACTING WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE TO TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT OVER THE COAST AND INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
LAGUNA. SCEC WORDING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONGER WINDS.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AND NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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