Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251017
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUD DECKS STREAMING
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND FRESH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SINKING
IN TO OUR AREA LATER TODAY THEN SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOUR WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS TODAY
AND A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...FEW CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AS CONDITIONS WILL BE BOTH SLOWLY
CHANGING AND LESS THAN EXTREME DURING THE LONG TERM. A LARGE SCALE
H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH HOVERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO TEXAS FROM HIGH PRESS
OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
LARGE RIDGE. MOISTURE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH A WEAK ONSHORE
WIND FOR THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND MILD...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S INLAND AND REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.
THE SAME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH
LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL TREND UP A FEW DEGREES SO THAT
MAINLY 50S WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTH GULF...AND
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TRENDING UP INTO THE 55 TO 65
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE TROUGH OVER NORTH
MEXICO WILL HANG BACK AND SLOWLY FILL...SHIFTING EAST IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT PLAYING MUCH OF A ROLE
WEATHERWISE.

ON MONDAY MORE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL SOUTH...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH THE CWA. A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF. THE GFS
DEPICTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER NORTH TEXAS NEXT WED
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY SHARPER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLOWLY WARMER THROUGH THE
LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY NIGHT TIME LOWS WHICH WILL GET INTO THE
60S.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELED EARLY
WITH BUOY 42020 REPORTING WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND SEAS AROUND
5 FEET. HOWEVER...EXPECT AND UPTICK IN WINDS AND SEAS TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCA WILL BE HOISTED FOR THE
20 TO 60NM FAR OFFSHORE WATERS AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-22
KNOTS IN THIS AREA AND SEAS RESPOND BY INCREASING TO AOA 7 FEET.
WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD LIES
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS
WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY. THOSE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MDT OR FRESH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS STRONG OVER THE NORTH GULF. LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THE GULF WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...AND WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET. SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL FILL ON
SUNDAY HOWEVER...RESULTING IN A WEAKER GRADIENT AND IMPROVING WAVE
HEIGHTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST
IN THE STRONGER WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  47  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          70  43  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            70  42  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              71  42  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  42  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  52  72  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ170.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ175.

&&

$$

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