447
FXUS64 KBRO 120315
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1015 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

An area of high pressure off the West Coast and another area of high
pressure over the Eastern Gulf will lock a mid-level disturbance
over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the next several
days. A low-level jet is expected to possibly mix down through the
weekend, which in turn produce more gusty winds. However, the winds
are currently expected to below Wind Advisory criteria.

Even through there is a mid-level disturbance over the region, the
chances of rain remain low (less than 20%) for the forecast period.
This does not mean that a rogue shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. Once the mid-level disturbance does finally move out of
the region next week, chances of rain will further decrease to less
than 10%. High pressure over the Gulf will continue into the middle
of next week, maintaining the mostly dry conditions for the area.

As for temperatures, the low temperatures are generally expected to
be in the 70s for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley. However a few locations for the extreme Southern parts of
the CWA could approach the 80s. The high temperatures are expected
to generally be in the 90s, however a few places in Starr and Zapata
counties could be in the triple digits. The heat risk for the
forecast period will mostly be moderate (level 2 of 4) for the
region. The heat indices are expected to be in the range of 105-108
and thus below Heat Advisory criteria.

Increasing swell affecting the Lower Texas coast will allow for
moderate risk of rip current for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. While some low-level clouds are expected to move
over the region with the southeasterly flow, confidence is low on
MVFR conditions or lower lasting for a long period of time. Gusty
winds should being to subside over the next couple of hours and
southeasterly winds should remain light for the overnight hours.
However, around mid-morning winds could become gusty again with
some gusts up to 30 knots possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A low-level jet associated with a mid-level disturbance and a
thermal pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds to occur over
the Lower Texas coast. This will likely result in Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions being needed for the Laguna Madre and
the Nearshore Gulf waters through the weekend. Outside of this,
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and slight moderate seas are
expected for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  93  80  93 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN               78  95  77  95 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN                 80  96  80  97 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  98  78  98 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  87  80  87 /  10  10  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  91  79  91 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64