Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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693
FXUS64 KBRO 260856
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
356 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday):Moisture profile remains ample
this morning, with satellite PW measurement remaining just under
2 inches. Weak dry air layers will infiltrate through the day,
holding back on the rainfall production some during the peak
heating hours, but not completely shutting down chances along the
seabreeze. Focused better chances across the northern ranchlands,
where the seabreeze should be when peak heating arrives. The
inverted trough passing by to the south will be well west of the
area by Thursday morning, as the summertime h5 ridge builds back
across east Texas. Lack of instability around the ridge will
further inhibit rain chances during the afternoon, and allow temps
to again soar toward 100 degrees. Ample near-surface moisture
will continue to push heat index readings to 105 to 110 degrees
today and tomorrow.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday):Latest deterministic
and ensemble model runs remain within good agreement and
consistency indicating the dominated ridge to strengthen as it
slides slightly westward as another low pressure trough digs
southward across the eastern third of the nation. South Texas will
remain under the influence of the strong high pressure ridge with
northerly flow keeping our atmosphere rather dry through at least
Sunday. Just enough moisture begins to seep back into the region
under the ridge early next week allowing for rain chances to re-
enter the forecast, albeit low. Temperatures to remain 3 to 5
degrees above normal and possible a few degrees higher over the
weekend when the ridge is the strongest and thicknesses are
higher. Model guidance is on track with this trend so the latest
numbers are blend of the latest guidance and yesterdays forecast.

&&

.MARINE:(Now through wednesday): Slightly lower wind readings are
forecast today as the surface high pressure builds back to the west
across the northern Gulf. Overall winds of 10 to 15 knots will
prevail from the southeast today, allowing seas to relax to 2 to 3
feet by this afternoon. This patter will continue into tomorrow,
with the ridge settling in across the northern Gulf. A couple
streamer showers may wrap around the southern edge of the surface
ridge tonight, but are expected to remain very isolated and brief in
nature.

Thursday night through Sunday...Weak surface high pressure remains
over the North central and west central gulf through the work
week maintaining a light to moderate onshore flow and a slight
sea. Lower winds are indicated for next weekend as the surface
high moves over the Texas coastal waters as a weak front could
move into the northeast gulf of Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  94  78  93  79 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          94  78  95  78 /  20  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            98  77  98  77 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN             101  79 100  79 /  20  10  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  77 101  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  81  89  81 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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