Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251124 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH
VFR PREVAILING AFTERWARD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL ONCE MORE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM VCT-ALI-LRD. BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
VCT-ALI...HOWEVER NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME SO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH PWATS
REMAINING WELL BELOW 1 INCH. A LIGHT ENE FLOW IN THE MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. DEVELOPMENT
AND DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW HEADING
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE ONSET OF MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN
DRG THE PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF DEPICT UPPER DISTURBANCES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD MOVG ACRS THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED MONDAY/TUESDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA (EXPECT AT LEAST SCEC OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY) FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGD ENTER THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS DETERMINISTIC
DEPICT LIMITED MSTR YET ANTICIPATE THAT MSTR CONVERGENCE WL RESULT
IN AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER/DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY AND RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL ISOLD CONVECTION. THE ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC DEPICT/
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED NORTH/NORTHEAST SFC WIND.
ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY. DECIDED TO ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AREAWIDE AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING OVER THE WRN CWA WHEN CONSIDERING SREF PROBABILITIES/FOG
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON GFS DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  63  86  65  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          89  59  88  63  87  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            91  66  91  67  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             90  61  90  63  87  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          83  67  83  70  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           90  62  90  62  89  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        88  61  88  65  86  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  68  84  70  83  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





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