Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251109
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
509 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAF`s.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period,
however as winds veer to the east and southeast, clouds will be on
the increase. By late tonight into early Sun morning, MVFR
conditions are expected to develop due to a mix of stratus and
patchy fog.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

A cooler day with dry conditions expected today as sfc high pressure
settles across the region. Mod to strong winds across the coastal
waters this morning are expected to decrease through the afternoon.
The high pressure will shift east tonight in response to a weak
upper level short wave approaching the area. This will result in low
level winds veering to the east then southeast and ushering in
moisture and warmer temps through Sun. Increasing dewpoints tonight
with drier airmass aloft combined with light winds, will be
conducive for patchy fog and low stratus to develop late tonight.
The upper level short wave combined with the increasing moisture
will bring a chance of precip on Sunday. As the short wave tracks NE
across the region through the afternoon, the chance for rain
increases. Went with 30 pops across the eastern CWA by afternoon
where moisture and instability are progged to be higher. Did not
mention TSRA`s as overall dynamics are expected to be fairly weak.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

The weak shortwave trough will be moving across the northern part of
the state Sunday night. Lingering chances of showers a perhaps an
isolated storm will occur Sunday night into Monday, mainly over
eastern sections of the area. Warming temperatures will continue
early next week with highs topping out in the lower 90s out west to
lower 80s over the Victoria Crossroads. The next upper level trough
will be approaching Tuesday night and moving out of the Plains
states on Wednesday. Latest guidance brings the associated front
through the area Wednesday morning, nearing or just off the coast by
18z. Temps could become a little tricky due to the timing of the
front, but will forecast highs in the 70s and 80s. A line of showers
and storms may accompany the front and will keep low pops for the
eastern Brush Country, Coastal Bend and Plains, and Gulf Waters.
Cooler air will arrive Wednesday night with lows falling into the
upper 40s across the north with 50s elsewhere. Strong offshore flow
will increase Wednesday night into Thursday and small craft
advisories will likely be necessary. Cooler conditions will persist
into Thursday and Friday with northeasterly winds and abundant cloud
cover. Highs will mostly be in the 60s to around 70s degrees in the
west both days. Kept low pops in the forecast for Friday as coastal
trough/low may develop.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  60  78  66  86  /   0  10  30  20  10
Victoria          68  49  75  64  83  /   0   0  30  20  20
Laredo            76  57  83  62  93  /   0  10  20  10  10
Alice             73  54  82  63  91  /   0  10  30  10  10
Rockport          68  60  76  68  79  /   0   0  30  20  20
Cotulla           73  51  79  60  91  /   0   0  20  10  10
Kingsville        74  56  80  64  90  /   0  10  30  10  10
Navy Corpus       69  61  76  68  80  /   0  10  30  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



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