Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 250906
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
406 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

The mid level shear axis will remain from southeast Texas southwest
into the Brush Country today. GOES 16 image of precipitable water
shows deep moisture in place across the entire region with PWAT
values near or slightly above 2 inches. Activity along the coast
has diminished some as low level convergence has weakend according
to latest MSAS analysis. But coverage is increasing over the
coastal waters and most of the models show low level convergence
developing again early this morning along the coastal region. The
low level convergence zone/focus for convective development will
slowly move inland through the day. Went with 50 percent chance
PoPs for the area today. Could see some isolated regions of heavy
rainfall with tropical air mass in place, but there is no
definitive boundary to focus heavy rainfall threat to mention in
the forecast. Convergence zone will develop again along the coast
late this evening for convective redevelopment to occur. Should
see a repeat of scattered convection over the area Monday but the
mid level shear axis will be weakening through the day. Kept
highest PoPs of 50 percent over the coastal plains on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...

No Significant changes to the long term forecast. Will maintain 50-
60% POPs across the Coastal Bend Tue as a weakness persists in the
mid level height fields over South Texas. PWATs in the 1.8 to 2"
range combined with a weak easterly flow and a washed out boundary
along the coast will focus both daytime and nocturnal convection
across Coastal Bend.  A mid level trough will move just off the
coast on Wednesday with best forcing over the waters. Meanwhile low
level winds increase in response to next s/w trough moving into the
central plains.  Low level winds strengthen further on Thur and Fri
as a pair of s/w`s track across the northern and central plains.
This will result in more scattered convection across the region Wed
and Thu. The mid level ridge builds back over the region by Friday
with only isolated showers expected.  Seasonable temperatures can
expected through mid week with a steady warming trend expected into
the upcoming weekend. In fact heat index values could again approach
105 to 109 over the Southern Brush Country and Rio Grande plains.
Small craft advisory conditions are likely over the Gulf waters on
Thursday Night/early Friday.
.

&&

.COASTAL...

Tide levels continue to be elevated along the Middle Texas coast
to about 1.1 feet above normal. This again will lead to an episode
of minor tidal overflow this morning around the time of high tide
for coastal areas south of Port Aransas. Rip current risk will be
downgraded to moderate for today as swells/periods continue to
decrease over the coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  76  90  75  90  /  50  40  50  30  50
Victoria          90  73  89  73  90  /  50  30  50  30  60
Laredo            94  75  94  75  94  /  40  30  30  20  50
Alice             92  74  92  73  92  /  50  30  50  20  60
Rockport          89  78  89  78  89  /  50  40  50  40  50
Cotulla           93  74  93  73  95  /  50  30  40  20  40
Kingsville        91  75  91  74  91  /  50  30  50  30  50
Navy Corpus       89  78  88  78  89  /  50  40  50  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CDT today For the following
     zones: Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM



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