Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 010930
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
430 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Midlevel ridging will continue to build into South Texas through the
holiday weekend gradually drying the atmosphere. However moisture
will remain abundant in the lowest levels with PWATs reaching 1.7
to 1.9 inches across the area, especially along the coast.
Instability remains over the warm waters this morning to
contribute to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Will continue to
see this trend gradually push farther inland along the coast into
the Victoria Crossroads with diurnal heating as moisture remains
more confined across the Coastal Plains. Farther west, a stronger
cap resides which should limit activity. Any activity that
develops today will diminish with the loss of heating this evening.
Very isolated activity will be possible heading into Saturday, but
not enough to carry 20% POPs, as the H85 cap strengthens. Onshore
flow will strengthen today into Saturday, peaking during the
afternoons as Surface Low develops across the Southern High
Heat Index Values will gradually increase through the weekend as
temperatures warm under ridging. Heat Index Values of 105 to 109
will be possible today and Saturday across much of South Texas.
For beach interests, with the increase of onshore flow, a Moderate
Risk for Rip Currents may exist Saturday.
.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
...Dangerous Heat Conditions Expected Over 4th of July Weekend...
Large scale ridging will be in place most of the longterm period
with the biggest issues being the return of well above normal heat
and humidity over the holiday weekend and early next week. Near
triple digits across the east to low-100s west are expected Sunday
through Tuesday as more gulf moisture is advected in. Relatively
anomalous onshore low-level jet of 30 to 35 knots will keep the
region fairly breezy through Tuesday but allow the humidity levels
to creep back upwards. Dewpoints will near oppressive levels, upper-
70s, across the eastern half of the CWA while they will tend to be
slightly drier west though still uncomfortable. Heat index values
Sunday through Tuesday look to exceed our heat advisory criteria,
110 degrees, while the remainder of the longterm we end up more in
the 105 to 109 degree range as the low-level jet weakens and the
ridge breaks down. A return in rain is currently expected towards
the end of the longterm period with a weak disturbance moving
through the western side of the ridge, now to our east.
Those heading down the shore this weekend we will see an increase in
rip currents with stronger onshore flow, higher wave action, and a
longer swell period. Thinking more of a moderate risk for dangerous
rip current formation will develop by Sunday through Tuesday.
Stronger onshore flow is expected to commence by Sunday likely
allowing for SCA conditions to develop through Monday. SCEC
conditions will exist thereafter.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 95 77 95 77 96 / 20 10 10 10 10
Victoria 95 75 95 76 95 / 20 10 10 10 10
Laredo 102 78 103 80 104 / 0 10 10 0 10
Alice 98 75 100 76 100 / 10 10 10 0 10
Rockport 93 79 92 81 92 / 20 10 10 10 10
Cotulla 101 75 102 77 104 / 0 10 10 0 0
Kingsville 96 76 96 78 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
Navy Corpus 92 80 92 82 92 / 20 10 10 10 10