Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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000 FXUS64 KCRP 212322 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 522 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING TO THE EAST. FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TILDEN TO FREER, MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY AFTER 05Z. OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE MVFR CIGS LINGER THIS EVENING, CLOUD BASES WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVERNIGHT TO LIFR/IFR WITH LIFR/IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING THERE AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY ROUGHLY 17Z SUNDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CLOUDS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE...AND GENERALLY EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT BUT WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ANY LAST MINUTE CHANGES IF NEEDED. MAIN ISSUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE FOG. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR LIGHT WINDS AND VERY WET GROUNDS...FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WHETHER IT BE SUFFICIENTLY DENSE OVER A LARGE AREA IS THE MAIN QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY YET AS NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN AREAL COVERAGE... ALTHOUGH KALI AND KVCT WILL BE PRIME SUSPECTS...THE LATTER AS LONG AS THE CLOUDS DO NOT LINGER. HAVE MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...AFTERNOON SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION (AGAIN WITH WET GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS) SHOULD BRING FOG BACK AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ON THE LOW SIDE OR BELOW GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH PERHAPS 80F IN LAREDO. ABOUT A 5 TO 7 DEGREE WARM UP MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURN. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE PERIOD MONDAY IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO AND MAYBE SLOW TO CLEAR DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. POTENT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAW MOISTURE AND CLOUD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A CHANCE OF POPS MON NGT AND TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...SATURDATED SOILS AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO FOG REDEVELOPING AGAIN MON NGT-TUE AM. FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE. DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND H85 WINDS WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS WILL UNDER CUT THE GFS MOS POPS AND INDICATE ONLY 40-50%. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO OUR SOUTH AS GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME JET DYNAMICS/DIFLUENCE ALOFT IN THOSE AREAS. PCPN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUE NGT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE GFS KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN JET. KEPT THE DRY SCENARIO FOR NOW...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS. MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...THEN BECOME ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 50 73 56 76 63 / 0 0 10 20 30 VICTORIA 45 71 50 76 60 / 0 0 0 10 30 LAREDO 51 80 57 78 62 / 0 0 0 20 30 ALICE 48 76 54 77 61 / 0 0 10 20 30 ROCKPORT 53 71 58 75 64 / 0 0 0 20 30 COTULLA 46 74 52 76 60 / 0 0 0 20 30 KINGSVILLE 46 75 54 77 62 / 0 0 10 20 30 NAVY CORPUS 55 72 59 74 64 / 0 0 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM JAR/19...LONG TERM/AVIATION
