Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261107
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
507 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE SW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED TO
THE NW GULF WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WEAK TO MOD S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AS A RESULT...MX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE SHORT
TERM. A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS S TX EARLY THU MORNING WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING. WINDS ARE PROGD TO SHIFT TO THE
NE THU MORNING BUT BY THU AFTERNOON WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND SE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY LATE THIS WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BRING A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...PWAT INCREASES FROM
NEAR 0.5 INCH EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO OVER ONE INCH ON SATURDAY.
WHILE ONLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL EXIST AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE COASTAL BEND AND MARINE AREAS. EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING MIN TEMPS...BUT NEAR STEADY MAX TEMPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. QUIET WEATHER MAY END BY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER A FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OR NOT...MORE CONSISTENT GFS MODEL STILL KEEPS THE
FRONT STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE ECMWF RUN NOW PUSHES A
RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AS THIS IS THE FIRST INDICATION OF A STRONGER FRONT
WILL HOLD OFF ON BUYING ALL THE WAY INTO THIS...AND LEAN MORE TOWARD
GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  47  71  56  74  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          73  45  69  49  73  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            76  47  74  53  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             75  46  73  53  75  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  53  68  60  72  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA           74  42  71  49  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        74  46  73  55  75  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  53  70  60  73  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





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