Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 242051
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
351 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

Moisture continues to increase into the area, morning sounding
showed a 1.83 inch pwat and GOES 16 indicates a similar value this
afternoon. 2+ inch values expected by Monday, spreading west to
east during the day. This should allow for increased coverage of
convection firing tomorrow...both out west and along the
seabreeze. Will see some shortwave energy moving around the
approaching upper trough, close enough to start convective
development in the Rio Grande Plains Monday afternoon. With PWAT
values where they are, would expect heavier downpours with the
more robust showers. Lows tonight should drop into the low to mid
70s...then in the mid and upper 70s Monday night with higher
moisture. Highs tomorrow mainly in the 90s with some upper 80s
north and east. Heavier showers will likely drop temperatures
several degrees where they occur. Have seen 10-15 degree drops
with showers today.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

Signal for a moderate to possibly heavy rain event continues to show
itself Tuesday through Thursday across the western third of the
region/Rio Grande Plains. Closed mid-level low pressure around the
Four Corners region will keep southwesterly flow pumping in ample
energy and moisture into the region allowing for widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity to develop. We did increase PoPs into the
categorical range to account for the very high moisture content from
both the Pacific and Gulf along with the stronger dynamics closer to
the closed low. Farther east into the Brush Country and Coastal
Plains we still have scattered convection possible with a weak
coastal trough and seabreeze action during the afternoon hours.

The heaviest rain is expected to remain to the west-northwest of the
region falling into the upstream-Rio Grande river basin which may
cause some rises on the river. Localized impacts from daily moderate
to heavy rainfall is also possible over the Rio Grande Plains as WPC
has drawn a Marginal risk of flash flooding over the extreme western
parts of the CWA.

Weakening cool front looks to near the region on Thursday into
Friday helping to produce more scattered convection but also helping
to clean out the airmass a bit. PWATs are progged to drop back
closer to average, of not below average, for next weekend. This will
help to drop temperatures a bit as well, but mostly decrease the
dewpoints/humidity.

Temperatures overall will remain above average for the first part of
the period but slowly trend cooler with more cloud cover and higher
rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  90  78  89  76  /  20  30  20  50  40
Victoria          73  89  75  89  74  /  10  30  20  50  20
Laredo            77  94  78  93  76  /  10  40  40  60  80
Alice             73  92  76  92  74  /  10  40  20  50  40
Rockport          79  88  80  88  79  /  20  30  20  50  30
Cotulla           75  93  76  92  75  /  20  40  50  60  80
Kingsville        74  92  76  92  75  /  20  30  20  50  40
Navy Corpus       79  87  80  88  80  /  20  30  20  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
GH/77...LONG TERM



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