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000
FXUS64 KCRP 101135 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
535 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION FORECAST TREND WILL BE DOWNHILL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS CEILINGS FALL DURING THE DAY WITH RAIN-COOLED
ATMOSPHERE AND RAIN EVENTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND FIRST AT KLRD
THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD. VFR CIGS WILL BE INITIALLY BE
FORECAST WITH FALLING CIGS DURING THE DAY. RAIN IN FORECAST
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON AT KLRD AND LATE AFTERNOON KALI...WITH
NO RAIN IN TAFS TIL AFTER 11/00Z AT KCRP AND KVCT. CIGS GO TO MVFR
AT KLRD BY MID EVENING...BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT KALI AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT OTHER LOCATIONS AS ISENTROPIC PATTERN REALLY GETS GOING.
FINALLY...AM FORECASTING IFR CIGS AT ALL BUT KVCT BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...AS STRONG ISENTROPIC PATTERN BRINGS MODERATE RAIN
AND SATURATES AIRMASS...BRINGING CIGS DOWN TO IFR BY END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PRETTY MUCH STATUS-QUO FOR
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A FEW MINOR CHANGES. FIRST...INCREASED POPS
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS CONFIDENCE IN RAIN GROWS. FOR TODAY...
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...GOING A BIT HIGHER OUT WEST BUT A BIT
LOWER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. CONCERNING WINTRY PRECIP...GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SLEET MENTIONED TODAY WEBB UP TO LIVE OAK
COUNTY. FINALLY...KEPT FREEZE WARNING AS-IS... WITH A FREEZE
MAYBE ONLY TWO TO THREE HOURS EXPECTED OVER VICTORIA AND GOLIAD
COUNTIES (AT BEST).

SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER WEBB COUNTY AT THIS TIME BUT RAIN
NOT REACHING GROUND YET...SHOULD BE DOING SO BY LATE MORNING AND
SPREAD EASTWARD. ALL MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT ON GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT PATTERN TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAST RAIN
BEGINS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. ECMWF TRYING TO END THINGS MUCH
FASTER (00Z RUN NOT AS FAST AS 12Z RUN WAS)...WHILE NAM IS
SLOWEST. AT THIS TIME...SEEMED BEST TO KEEP CURRENT FORECAST
GOING OUT WEST WITH COMPROMISE GFS SOLUTION. WILL WRITE ANOTHER SPS
FOR UPCOMING RAIN EVENT. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...
AS MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT WARMER THAN BEFORE...BUT STILL
GENERALLY STAYING NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MACHINE
VALUES.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SCEC FOR THE GULFMEX TODAY
(BORDERLINE)...THEN WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES AND DEEPENS SURFACE LOW. WILL HAVE SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD APPROACH
GALE NEAR THE OFFSHORE BORDER (IF GFS-MOS IS RIGHT)...BUT THINK
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE (AS OFTEN IS) SO WILL STAY WITH SCA WINDS AND
NOT ISSUE GALE WATCH. RAIN BEGINS IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDER UNLIKELY...TOO STABLE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...ECMWF IS THE FASTEST
WITH THE THURSDAYS SYSTEM PULLING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE NAM
THE SLOWEST. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSISTENT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO IT WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS 00Z FRI ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY COMING TO AN END THEREAFTER.
DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING COMING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUED UPGLIDE WILL PRODUCE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS 00Z-06Z FRI...
BUT THE DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BY 06Z
AND PRECIP SHOULD THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA). LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN LOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES...AND WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT
10%. ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  43  50  42  60  /  40 100 100  80  10
VICTORIA          47  36  46  40  57  /  40 100 100  80  10
LAREDO            48  40  48  41  67  /  70 100  80  30   0
ALICE             49  40  51  40  63  /  50 100 100  70   0
ROCKPORT          51  42  50  42  58  /  40  90 100  80  10
COTULLA           41  39  44  37  66  /  80 100  80  30   0
KINGSVILLE        51  44  51  42  62  /  50 100 100  80  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  46  52  45  60  /  40 100 100  80  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GOLIAD...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM