Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 070912
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
412 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC
PREDICT 700-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA TODAY.
YET...GOES SOUNDER DEPICT HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE ERN
CWA/COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SUBSIDENCE NOTWITHSTANDING...
ANTICIPATE THAT SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE
TO ADDITIONAL ISOLD CONVECTION TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN
CWA/MAINLY WRN MSA. THE NAM/GFS PREDICT GREATER 700-300MB Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER PWAT VALUES...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE PCPN WEDNESDAY. BASED IN
PART ON WAVEWATCH OUTPUT...ANTICIPATE NO WORSE THAN A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK TODAY/WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING MIXING OF GREATER
MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT (NAM DETERMINISTIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/850MB
WIND)...AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TODAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...QUIETER AND WARMER
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE WEEK AS A MIDLEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET BREEZY TO
WINDY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
SLIGHT YET PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW BY THURSDAY WILL ALLOW GULF
MOISTURE TO RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...WILL HOLD
OFF ON MENTIONING ACTIVITY FOR NOW AS VERY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. OTHERWISE...THE DRIER
CONDITIONS EARLY ON SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO COOL TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  77  90  76  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          91  77  91  75  92  /  20  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            98  76  99  77 100  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             93  75  94  75  95  /  10  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          87  80  87  79  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           95  74  97  75  99  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        92  76  91  76  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  79  87  80  89  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM


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