Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 251109
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
509 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017
See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAF`s.
VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period,
however as winds veer to the east and southeast, clouds will be on
the increase. By late tonight into early Sun morning, MVFR
conditions are expected to develop due to a mix of stratus and
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A cooler day with dry conditions expected today as sfc high pressure
settles across the region. Mod to strong winds across the coastal
waters this morning are expected to decrease through the afternoon.
The high pressure will shift east tonight in response to a weak
upper level short wave approaching the area. This will result in low
level winds veering to the east then southeast and ushering in
moisture and warmer temps through Sun. Increasing dewpoints tonight
with drier airmass aloft combined with light winds, will be
conducive for patchy fog and low stratus to develop late tonight.
The upper level short wave combined with the increasing moisture
will bring a chance of precip on Sunday. As the short wave tracks NE
across the region through the afternoon, the chance for rain
increases. Went with 30 pops across the eastern CWA by afternoon
where moisture and instability are progged to be higher. Did not
mention TSRA`s as overall dynamics are expected to be fairly weak.
LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
The weak shortwave trough will be moving across the northern part of
the state Sunday night. Lingering chances of showers a perhaps an
isolated storm will occur Sunday night into Monday, mainly over
eastern sections of the area. Warming temperatures will continue
early next week with highs topping out in the lower 90s out west to
lower 80s over the Victoria Crossroads. The next upper level trough
will be approaching Tuesday night and moving out of the Plains
states on Wednesday. Latest guidance brings the associated front
through the area Wednesday morning, nearing or just off the coast by
18z. Temps could become a little tricky due to the timing of the
front, but will forecast highs in the 70s and 80s. A line of showers
and storms may accompany the front and will keep low pops for the
eastern Brush Country, Coastal Bend and Plains, and Gulf Waters.
Cooler air will arrive Wednesday night with lows falling into the
upper 40s across the north with 50s elsewhere. Strong offshore flow
will increase Wednesday night into Thursday and small craft
advisories will likely be necessary. Cooler conditions will persist
into Thursday and Friday with northeasterly winds and abundant cloud
cover. Highs will mostly be in the 60s to around 70s degrees in the
west both days. Kept low pops in the forecast for Friday as coastal
trough/low may develop.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 72 60 78 66 86 / 0 10 30 20 10
Victoria 68 49 75 64 83 / 0 0 30 20 20
Laredo 76 57 83 62 93 / 0 10 20 10 10
Alice 73 54 82 63 91 / 0 10 30 10 10
Rockport 68 60 76 68 79 / 0 0 30 20 20
Cotulla 73 51 79 60 91 / 0 0 20 10 10
Kingsville 74 56 80 64 90 / 0 10 30 10 10
Navy Corpus 69 61 76 68 80 / 0 10 30 20 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today For the following
zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.