Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KCRP 202019
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
219 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
BY A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS CENTERED CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT QPF
WITH MOST ACTIVITY LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE. PATCHY FOG IS ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE INLAND AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TOMORROW OVER THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWFA IN A PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME DRYING ESPECIALLY ALOFT OUT
WEST MAY IMPEDE RAIN CHANCES OUT THERE.

PRECIP CHANCES ALIGN MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS FOCUS
SHIFTS TO THE POTENT SET UP DESCRIBED MORE COMPLETELY IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
REMAINS ON SAT AS STRONG UPPER SYS DIGS THRU NORTHERN MX FRI NGT
BEFORE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH SAT.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AS PLENTIFUL MSTR IS IN PLACE
AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS US.  MODELS REMAIN IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS RESULTING IN
HIGHER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE THAT A SVR THREAT EXISTS.  THERE REMAIN
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS HWVR...ESPLY RELATING TO HOW
QUICKLY FLOW ABV THE BNDRY LYR WILL BACK AS THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE IN PLACE.  THE NAM KEEPS
THE SFC-H8 FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY THRU AT LEAST 21Z RESULTING IN A
HIGHLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  THE
GFS/EURO HWVR VEER THE LLVL FLOW TO WSW QUICKER.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT
MORE OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND ALSO LIMIT CVRG AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN.  FOR THE TIME BEING WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PRIMARILY
A DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH TORNADOES PSBL.  LATER MODEL RUNS
SHOULD HELP AS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE DETAILS AS THE SYSTEM
COMES ON SHORE AND IS BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UA NETWORK.

SUNDAY WILL BE A WARM AND DRY DAY AS PACIFIC AIRMASS DOWNSLOPES INTO
THE AREA.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S RIO GRANDE TO AROUND 80 ELSW.
SECONDARY FRONT LOOKS TO COME THRU SUN NGT OR MONDAY ALLOWING A
COOLER BUT STILL MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN AIRMASS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.  FOR THE REST OF THE PD WE`LL SEE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW
REINFORCING COOL FRONTS BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY NICE
WITH DRY WX AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  RIDGING ALOFT LATE IN
THE WEEK SHOULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE WARMING TO OCCUR.  OVERALL THE
MEX TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM AND HV LEANED CLOSER TO THE COOLER HPC
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  79  69  79  58  /  30  30  20  40  40
VICTORIA          64  77  65  77  56  /  40  40  30  80  50
LAREDO            64  80  68  83  56  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             64  80  67  82  57  /  20  20  20  40  30
ROCKPORT          68  77  70  76  61  /  40  40  20  60  50
COTULLA           62  77  65  77  54  /  10  20  30  40  10
KINGSVILLE        65  79  67  81  57  /  20  20  20  40  40
NAVY CORPUS       68  76  70  77  62  /  30  30  20  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JV/71...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.