Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 272339 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOG
POTENTIAL AT KVCT AND POSSIBLY AT KCRP. FIRST THE LATTER. DEW
POINTS STILL IN LOW 70S AT KVCT AND ONCE WINDS DIMINISH AND REMAIN
A BIT ONSHORE...COULD HAVE SOME FOG ISSUES. THUS...DID GO WITH
VSBYS AS LOW AS 1SM (TEMPO) BEFORE WINDS BECOME NW ABOUT 09Z AND
PUSH DRIER AIR IN. AT KCRP...WILL ONLY GO WITH MVFR AS DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S NOW BUT IN THE 70S AT KNGP (AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY TONIGHT). FOG SHOULD END ABOUT 09Z AT KCRP WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTH. NO FOG ELSEWHERE WITH VFR EXPECTED AS DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE TO THE EAST. GUSTY NW WINDS BEGINNING AT
KLRD ABOUT 09Z...KCRP ABOUT 12Z (KALI 11Z)...AND KVCT 14Z. WINDS
LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY FOR REST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST WITH GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT. MVFR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KVCT WITH FROPA
TIL ABOUT 18Z BEFORE VFR CIGS DEVELOP THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINTS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH
COUNTRY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S OVER THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WILL
LEAVE A 20 POP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 00Z WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN COOLER
AND DRIER AIR. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. N TO NW
WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE
AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE
AREAS BEGINNING AT 7AM TUESDAY MORNING. COOL NIGHT IN STORE
TOMORROW NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MILD
TEMPS ARE PROGD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY
THU WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX. WITH
DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONIING FOG THIS FAR OUT. MODELS PROG A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP BY
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS AND A SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL TX WOULD FAVOR
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE PWATS ARE PROGD TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR LESS
WHICH IS LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEREFORE KEPT IT JUST A SLIGHT
CHC FOR SUN. MAINTAINED SILENT 10 POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MON THEN
SHOW A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE MON NIGHT DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TO APPROACH S TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  65  75  55  76  /  20  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          84  62  73  50  75  /  20  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            90  60  77  55  80  /  10   0  10  10   0
ALICE             89  64  76  54  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          80  67  73  57  74  /  20  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           88  61  76  51  78  /  10   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        87  65  76  54  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       81  68  74  59  74  /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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