Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 251009
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
509 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

Rain chances are expected to increase today as abundant moisture
moves into the region. KCRP 00Z Sounding reported 1.8 inch PWATs
but global models continue to prog PWATs of 2.0+ inches by the
afternoon. With moderate CAPE values of 1500-3000 J/kg and no
CIN, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
today, with greatest chances across the gulf waters and across the
Coastal Plains generally east of Highway 281 from Alice to Three
Rivers. With the lack of strong mid-upper level support, am not
expecting severe weather, however, a few storms may become strong
at times, mainly with gusty winds greater than 40 MPH. Instability
and moisture looks best across the east early during the day, so
have trended drier this morning farther west toward Laredo. Did
show a gradual shift in rain coverage toward the west through the
afternoon into the evening hours. Model soundings do show slightly
drier conditions within the boundary layer across the Coastal
Plains that would suggest showers and thunderstorms to wane in
activity during the evening hours, which is possible seeing if the
atmosphere across the eastern areas get overworked from convection
today and eventually stabilizes.

Redevelopment overnight is expected across the gulf waters with
coverage expected to spread farther west inland as a cold front
approaches the area. Models show winds begin to back out of the
east to northeast Monday morning. However following pressure
rises and Theta-E values, it looks like the main front may not
move into South Texas until the afternoon to evening hours. As of
right now, it appears the front should reach areas from Victoria
to Cotulla around the noon hour, with the front gradually reaching
the coastal areas westward to Laredo around 6PM in the evening,
give or take a few hours. But now with the frontal boundary to
focus on, with the moisture and instability already in place,
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur for
Monday, with the greatest focus again mainly along the front.

Outside of upper 80s/90s today, temperatures will be cooler for
Monday. Monday`s temperatures will heavily depend on the timing of
the front, but have cooled daytime highs down a few degrees.
Temperatures tonight should range in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...

Expe ct convection to continue over the CWA/MSA Monday night
owing in part to copious moisture. Yet..efficient rainfall
production begins to decline given the passage of the front. As
the front moves across the MSA...anticipate moderate northeast
flow. Caveat...owing to warm SSTs...wind could approach SCEC.
Yet...forecasting 10-15kt for now for Monday Night/Tuesday.
Persistent NE flow Tuesday/Wednesday might contribute to elevated
water levels. Yet...not sure whether Minor tidal overflow would
occur (ESTOFS maintains water level below 2ft msl.) Deterministic
(ECMWF/GFS) and GFS ensemble mean output consistent with an upper
pattern characterized by an upper low/ trough over the ERN CONUS
with a developing upper ridge over the CNTRL CONUS including the
CWA/MSA. The upper ridge is then predicted (again GFS ensemble
mean adds credence to) to persist through the remainder of the
period. Thus...a decrease in the likelihood for precipitation
expected Tuesday/Wednesday. No significant pcpn expected Thursday-
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  76  87  72  84  /  50  50  70  50  40
Victoria          89  72  86  68  84  /  60  60  70  40  30
Laredo            96  76  87  67  79  /  40  50  70  60  40
Alice             93  73  87  70  83  /  40  40  70  50  40
Rockport          89  77  87  73  83  /  50  60  70  50  40
Cotulla           93  74  85  67  80  /  50  50  70  50  30
Kingsville        92  74  87  71  85  /  40  40  70  50  40
Navy Corpus       89  79  86  75  83  /  40  50  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM



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