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000
FXUS64 KCRP 191126
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ONSHORE SFC WIND WILL INCREASE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTN. WIND WL DECREASE DRG THE
EVENING. ANTICIPATE THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES DRG THE 09-13Z THURSDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/
STREAMLINE DATA REVEAL THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE SW
ALONG WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WRN GULF. ANTICIPATE THAT
LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC) AND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS/COAST THIS MORNING (SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREDOMINATE OVER THE WRN CWA AND THUS NO CONVECTION
EXPECTED.) OTHERWISE...CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE WL BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY. DIURNAL
MODERATE/BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE
105-109F HEAT INDEX VALUES BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. THE
COMBINATION OF NAM DETERMINISTIC 1-KM LAPSE RATES/925MB WIND
SUGGEST AT LEAST (NOCTURAL) SCEC CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE THAT SCA
CONDITIONS WL PERSIST FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS AND THUS WL NOT ISSUE
AN SCA. BASED ON ANTICIPATED PRIMARY SWELL CHARACTERISTICS/WIND
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRENGTHENING IN THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BALK
CONVECTION CHANCES AND ALLOW FOR HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAKENING IN THE UPPER RIDGE OCCURS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MIDLEVELS. CONTINUED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING SUNDAY...THO PWAT VALUES
REMAIN LOW COMPARED TO NORMAL SEASONAL VALUES. MAINLY TRIMMED POPS
TO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE MONDAY...SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH ONCE MORE BETWEEN
105 TO 109 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    96  79  96  78  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          97  76  95  75  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           103  77 101  78 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            100  75  97  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  81  88  80  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          100  75  98  75  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        99  77  97  77  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  81  89  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION