Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 112342 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
542 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5PM AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO OTHER CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
MENTION DENSE FOG IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG SHOULD THEN MIX OUT
AROUND 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FLOW WILL TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TONIGHT SO LLVL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SO HV CONTINUED MENTION. LOOKS LIKE THE GULF AIRMASS
PUSHING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL CONTAIN MAINLY LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS - IN LINE WITH WATER TEMPS THERE THUS NOT EXPECTING
MARINE FOG ATTM. STILL VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN AND
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FAR
NORTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE MADE TO PREV FCST TEMPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT CAA MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
UNTIL TYPICAL MID MORNING TIME FRAME. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF ROCKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. NEXT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND WHERE SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. S-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS...PER PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND
DECREASE STEADILY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS OFF THE
GULF AS WELL SO OUR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE GONE
BY SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  80  53  76  58  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          53  77  51  74  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  85  55  81  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             50  83  51  79  56  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  69  56  70  59  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  84  51  80  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        53  81  52  76  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  71  57  71  60  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION


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