Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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909
FXUS64 KCRP 230909
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
409 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

All eyes on the Bay of Campeche, as they should be at this time
so I`ll keep this short. Please read the long term portion of this
discussion for more on the TC potential.

Today will feature warm temperatures and humid conditions with
isolated showers and embedded thunder. Expecting more moisture
to surge in late tonight allowing for scattered activity to develop
over the waters and more towards the coast by daybreak. Sea
breeze will also help to spread shower activity inland.
Temperatures on Thursday maybe a degree or two cooler than today
with more cloud cover in place.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...

Focus for long term period remains on the potential tropical
development of the remnants of Harvey. NHC currently has 100% chance
of development over the next 5 days...and likely in the next 24-48
hours. Vigorous convection continues overnight to the northwest of
the Yucatan Peninsula, but no closed circulation has been found in
the vicinity based on scatterometer winds.

Model guidance continue to be in fair agreement on movement of any
potential cyclone with a general northwest movement over the next
couple of days as the TUTT low in the northern Gulf of Mexico helps
to steer it. Overnight ECMWF model that had been a farther south
solution has come closer in line with the GFS. With some reasonable
consistency in the GFS over the past 24 hours or so have leaned a
bit closer to this model with the official forecast. Regardless of
future strength and exact position would expect strong winds to
develop as well as high chances for showers and thunderstorms,
especially for the Coastal Bend and marine regions. Have stuck in
line with WPC rainfall totals, with 4-8 inch amounts likely for much
of the Coastal Bend...with higher amounts possible in some
locations, especially the farther north you go. Highest rain chances
will be Friday afternoon through Saturday. Coastal flooding due to
increase swells and long swell periods will also become a concern
late in the week.

All that said...small changes in the expected track of the system
could lead to big changes in the forecast.

Beyond Saturday...models have not been consistent in the future of
the tropical system, some stalling it, some meandering it around
South Texas and then shooting it off the coast to the east, others
being more progressive with a continuous northerly(ish) movement.
Thus confidence remains somewhat low in the forecast Sunday into
next week. As a general rule though, expect decreasing rain chances.

Temperatures should drop to several degrees below normal for the
eastern CWA with expected cloud cover and rainfall. West, with a
drier northerly flow, could see temperatures closer to normal.



&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  76  95  78  89  /  20  10  30  50  70
Victoria          98  76  98  76  87  /  20  10  30  30  70
Laredo           102  78 101  77  94  /  10   0  20  20  40
Alice            101  74  99  76  91  /  20  10  30  30  60
Rockport          94  79  94  79  87  /  10  20  30  50  70
Cotulla          101  76 100  76  94  /  10  10  20  20  40
Kingsville       101  76  98  77  91  /  20  10  30  40  70
Navy Corpus       94  81  93  79  88  /  10  10  30  50  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM



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