Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280925
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A FEW SCATTERED RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR, AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12 Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE 80S
(WARMEST IN THE EAST).

CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM, NMM AND ARW WRF`S SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE 850-700 MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ZONE, WHICH MAY BE WHAT IS ACTIVELY ONGOING
THIS MORNING. IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS IT SHOULD MAINLY ONLY AFFECT
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. THIS WILL NOT
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT COULD INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE MORE ORGANIZED AND BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION/HEAVY
RAIN HOWEVER SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVADING UPPER LOW DURING
THE EVENING, AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY/PV ANOMALY. HOWEVER, EVEN
WITH THIS FORCING FEATURE, THE MODELS ARE NOT ALL IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS EVENING, AS THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AGRESSIVE THAN THE ARW RUNS WHILE ALL SUGGEST
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS OPPOSED TO ANY LONG LIVED LARGE LINEAR
CONVECTION. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPORAL POPS WE`VE USED THE NAM
SPATIALLY WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH MUCAPES IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSOLATION. A BRIEF PERIOD FOR SEVERE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER A HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT IS MORE LIKLEY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE GREAT PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE WITH IT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WE HAVE TONED DOWN/ELIMINATED POPS (ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY FRIDAY) WITH A DRY FORECAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK FRONT
(NEARLY INDISTINGUISHABLE IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS) WILL PUSH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY RETURNING
TO SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS, IT WILL BE DRY
SATURDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AUGUST (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S). A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC JET, WITH SOME SEASONAL
CHANGE CHARACTERISTICS, WILL BE APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE 800-700MB LAYER WILL PROBABLY
AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AND WE WILL CARRY SOME 20 POPS OVERNIGHT IN
THESE AREAS FOR THAT REASON. IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT SAT
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE PACIFIC JET STREAK WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUB-1000MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR ELKHART. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY HOT DOWNSLOPE
PLUME SPREADING NORTHEAST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW (+32C AS
FAR NORTHEAST AS A LIBERAL-GARDEN CITY LINE). THIS WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY
SUPPORT 100-DEGREE HIGHS, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 96F
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES SHOULD THIS SIGNAL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY EAST OF A
WAKEENEY TO NESS CITY LINE CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET EXIT
REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THEREWITH FAIRLY GOOD
CAPE/SHEAR COMBO ALONG THE FRONT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

AFTER THIS STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE QUICKLY BY MID-WEEK, SUPPORTING ANOTHER
FAIRLY ROBUST WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES MID-WEEK AS THERE IS A DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF OF 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO +28 TO +30C
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND 12 UTC AND MAINLY AFFECT THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE HOWEVER, WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AFTER 21 UTC THURSDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  63  86  61 /  50  60  30  20
GCK  86  62  86  59 /  40  50  20  20
EHA  85  61  88  61 /  30  30  20  10
LBL  88  64  87  61 /  50  60  20  20
HYS  86  65  85  61 /  50  70  40  20
P28  89  67  87  66 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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