Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 202335
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
635 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014
...Updated for the aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Ample insolation early this afternoon resulted in surface-based CAPE
in the 700-1100 J/kg west of Highway 283 to the Colorado border.
Lack of a capping inversion beneath cool temperatures in the
700-500mb layer (+2C at 700mb). There were two areas of surface
convergence that will support development of thunderstorms by
mid-afternoon. The first area is near the Colorado border along the
stationary trough axis, which is also near where the mid level
vorticity center is. We are also watching a secondary area of
interest from Dodge City south to the Oklahoma border where surface
wind convergence was slightly enhanced. 1km visible satellite
confirmed development of cumulus in both of these areas. Given the
higher degree of instability than earlier anticipated, a few hail
storms may occur with the largest hail most likely being around
1-inch in diameter (Quarter size). Severe weather threat will likely
wane after 00Z or so as showers and thunderstorms grow upscale. This
is what the HRRR would seem to suggest in its latest runs, which
makes sense given the marginal instability. Much of the
precipitation should be coming to an end/or exiting the southwest
Kansas region in the 04-07Z time frame so POPs will be lowered
during this time frame and shortly thereafter.
A northern stream shortwave trough will aid in bringing a cold front
south through western Nebraska late tonight, reaching southwestern
Kansas by mid to late morning Monday. The front is not expected to
have any impact on temperatures, though, so the going forecast of
upper 70s to near 80 still looks pretty good (especially along/south
of the Arkansas River).
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
Upper level ridging builds over the Plains Monday night through
Tuesday with dry conditions in the mid levels. This will allow
mostly clear skies to be observed across western Kansas. This will
be short lived as the next storm system moves into the Northern
Rockies Tuesday night into Wednesday. Southerly winds will be felt
across western Kansas as this system approaches with increasing mid
level moisture Tuesday night. A moderate upper level jet will be
found above western Kansas on Wednesday enhancing lift across the
area. Southerly winds will continue at the surface becoming windy in
the afternoon. In addition, a dryline is suggested to develop in the
afternoon with CAPE and shear increasing as the day progresses.
These conditions will bring a chance of thunderstorms ahead of the
dryline from late afternoon into Wednesday night. A few of these
storms could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds being the main concern. A cold front then moves through
western Kansas Thursday morning shifting winds to the north. Lows
Tuesday morning will be in the low to mid 40s with highs Tuesday
reaching into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The warmest day of the
week looks to be on Wednesday with lows in the mid 50s and highs in
the lower 80s. Lows Thursday morning look to range from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas where the aforementioned cold front is
expected to move through early to upper 50s across south central
Kansas where the front is not expected to move through by sunrise.
Dry conditions are then expected during the remainder of the week as
an upper level ridge builds above the Plains with dry conditions in
the mid levels. Winds shift back to the south by Saturday as the
next storm system entered the western United States. This system is
expected to affect western Kansas this weekend bringing an increase
in clouds and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs Thursday through this
weekend will generally be in the 70s with lower 80s possible across
far southwestern Kansas on Saturday. Lows will generally be in the
mid to upper 40s Friday and Saturday morning.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014
An upper level low pressure area slowly moving east across western
Kansas will keep the area unstable through at least 03z tonight.
The area of instability will shift to the east after that, and mid
level clouds will be left behind. Winds in and near the upper low
pressure will be south to southeast at 15g25kt this evening, then
become southeast at 10 knots or less after 04z. After 15z on
Monday, expect sct cirrus clouds and north winds of 15g22kt.
Overall, flight conditions will be VFR, except with a few MVFR
cigs in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms early tonight.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 53 77 45 79 / 50 10 0 10
GCK 51 76 43 82 / 50 0 0 10
EHA 49 76 46 83 / 20 10 0 10
LBL 51 78 46 83 / 50 0 0 10
HYS 56 77 43 79 / 60 10 0 10
P28 56 77 47 79 / 50 10 0 10