Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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390
FXUS63 KDDC 101155
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The advertised very mild day appears to be on track for today,
especially across the southwestern counties. Much of the guidance
and gridded short term forecast output support afternoon
temperatures topping out in the 74 to 76 degree range along the
Oklahoma border. Warm air should even be found up in the Wakeeney
and Hays areas with highs likely in the lower 60s since the snowpack
is pretty much gone except for drifts (the exception being far
northern Ellis and Trego Co. per 1km visible satellite before sunset
yesterday). Wind direction will be from the northwest off the
snowpack, so there is definitely that to contend with, otherwise I
would feel quite comfortable with Trego and Ellis Co. joining the
upper 60s/near 70 party.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The end-of-week weather, going into the weekend, will continue to be
quite tranquil. Daytime temperatures will continue to be the primary
challenge in the forecast with quite the temperature contrast
expected from extreme southwest KS to central KS. A fairly
substantial arctic airmass will continue to gain real estate across
the north central and northeastern CONUS. A significant jet streak
will rotate around the longwave trough Thursday Night into Friday.
Behind this, fairly robust anticyclogenesis will occur at the
surface across the northern Great Plains. This will spread south
with the edge of the arctic airmass pushing into southwest Kansas.
This will not really be noticed until Saturday, but we will see the
initial push of the colder air Friday in the northeastern portion of
the forecast area (especially around Hays) such that temperatures
will likely plateau in the mid 40s by midday as surface cold air
advection increases from the northeast. This will expand
southwestward across the rest of west central and southwest KS later
in the day Friday, but probably too late in the day to have a
meaningful impact on temperatures, thus highs Friday should be in
the 50s to around 60 for much of southwest KS.

Saturday should be the coldest day as we will be in the colder air
for sure. The coldest of this cold event will certainly be well
displaced to the east of our part of the world, so this glancing
shot of cold air will only drop our temperatures about 7 to 10
degrees from Friday`s temps. In fact, this cold front will basically
just bring our temperatures down to the seasonal average. Another
low amplitude wave will approach western Kansas late weekend, but
with so much downslope momentum tied to this feature, we will not
see any precipitation and temperatures are not expected to be
impacted much at all. Once that system pushes on east, the semi-
persistent ridge out west will build back in supporting another
stretch of warm temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

An upper level ridge will continue in the western United States
while a mean upper level trough persists in the eastern part of
the country through the weekend. An upper level trough will move
rapidly from eastern North Dakota to the Carolinas before sunrise
Thursday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will progress
from western North Dakota to eastern Kansas by this evening. A
weak cold front will move into northern Kansas this evening and
should reach Oklahoma by midnight.

Mostly clear skies will prevail today with west to northwest low
level winds around 15 kts with some gusts to near 25 kts. Low
level winds will become north at 10 to 15 knots after passage of
the cold front. The winds will diminish toward morning. Light low
level north to northeast winds across the wet ground and residual
snow in northern Kansas will favor development of stratus with
ceilings near 008 after 11Z, but confidence is not high. The
stratus gradually will erode Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  28  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  73  27  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  76  32  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  75  30  65  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  62  25  51  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  29  57  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Ruthi



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