Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010523
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1223 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

For this evening, the main focus will likely be the axis of stronger
surface winds, as the trend for precipitation associated with the
mid level forcing that will still be present but perhaps not as
nearly well organized. The surface low will shift from south central
Kansas into the Missouri valley. That will shift the strongest
pressure gradient farther away from the highway 83 corridor, and
bring the axis of stronger surface winds over the eastern half of
our area for the late afternoon and evening hours. The magnitude
of the fgen forcing is significantly weaker and the qpf being
models by the 4 km NAM continues a significant trends downward.
This points periods of light snow with little accum and strong
winds still in the 30-39 mph range with 50 mph gust through the
early evening. Will need to extend pops though midnight or later
with appropriate top-down precip type weather which may be rain or
snow, but more likely snow.

Westerly surface winds will help warm up temps for Monday. Models
are accounting for the snow in the west by discounting highs around
20 degrees between the warmer, near 70F far southeast, and our
northwest counties.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

The area remains in an upper northwest flow pattern locally with a
generally more broad cyclonic pattern across the Northern Plains and
Great Lakes region through the middle of the week. The GFS and
ECMWF suggest a shortwave system digging south toward western
Kansas while a surface warm front develops somewhere near the
KS/OK line. As a result KS looks potentially wet/convectively
active around mid week and on the cool side of the boundary with
temperatures only in the 60s. The trend is for warmer and drier
continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

Gusty northwest winds will gradually fall back into the 10 to 15
knot range by 09z as the upper level winter storm system continues
to track northeast across northern Missouri and Iowa. Low clouds
along with a few areas of light rain and snow in the Hays area at
05z will slowly move east and give way to VFR conditions between
09z and 11z Monday. VFR conditions can be expected across all of
western Kansas on Monday and winds will be northwest at 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  59  38  65 /  50   0   0  10
GCK  28  50  34  59 /  20   0   0  10
EHA  30  56  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  33  57  39  63 /  70   0   0  10
P28  35  69  43  70 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert



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