417
FXUS63 KDDC 050824
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
324 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-day Monday into the
  afternoon along and east of a line from WaKeeney to Dodge
  City.

- The western limit of severe weather Monday depends on how
  early in the day storms develop.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions are possible over much of the
  southwest Monday Afternoon.

- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and
  persist for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A swath of warm air advection was moving north from OK this
morning, generating showers and thunderstorms that will be
approaching the KS state line through sunrise. Southeast
counties have the best chances (20-40%) for measurable rain in
any given location, although QPF (amounts) would only be a few
hundredths of an inch. HREF 4 hr lightning produces about a
40-50 percent chance for thunderstorms over parts of Comanche,
and Barber counties this morning. A few lingering showers might
be around through the mid morning hours.

Cloudy conditions this morning will give way to more sun in the
afternoon, as winds become more southerly as the gradient
increases due to the retreating Plains surface anticyclone.
Gusts in excess of 30 mph will be common west of roughly highway
83 to the Colorado line. Gusts in the western half of the area
will intensify after midnight as the gradient strengthens and
momentum transfer plays a role with the increasing wind speeds
aloft associated with an incoming upper jet into the Central
Plains.

Monday will be much more windy and warm, as a dryline advances
east ahead of a cold front sweeping east to overtake the dryline
in the late morning. Models have trended for days for severe
weather favorable surface dewpoints to spread north into central
Kansas. With steepening lapse rates through a deep layer, and
the available shear for organized supercell development near the
dryline, the afternoon hours will bring a severe weather risk
anywhere east of Scott City to Garden and Liberal line, with
the greater risk of high end severe threats like supercell
tornadoes farther east into the higher dew point air east of
roughly highway 283. A moderate risk outlook (level 4 of 5) has
been highlighted by Storm Prediction Center for for Barber
county, and portions of Comanche and Pratt counties, implying a
15% chance for a Tornado within 25 miles of a point in those
areas. The entire area, west to Dighton , Dodge City and Meade
Minneola is in a favorable area for very significant hail in the
2 to 4 inch range (baseballs or larger possible). The
negatively tilted trough should provide storm motions off the
boundary as opposed to parallel with the boundary, generally
increasing confidence for high impact heterogeneous threats.
Uncertainty however revolves around how long the individual
cells will be in the DDC forecast area as typically the hail
risk will be the initial risk for some time before storms are
able to become tornadic, as well as time (early or later in the
afternoon) of initiation along the advancing dryline/cold front
lifting mechanism.



&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The aforementioned, strong upper level trough will eject across
the central and northern plains Monday in negatively tilted
fashion. The primary surface low will develop across the
northern high plains, with a trailing, dry cold front sweeping
across western Kansas Monday afternoon. A dry line will exist
southward from about the 37th parallel Monday afternoon and the
dry cold front(modified by downslope) will rapidly overtake the
dryline during the day. Given the negative tilt to the upper
level trough, strong mid level cooling around 700mb will take
place, leading to a weakening in the capping inversion. While
the mid levels will be cooling, the lowest levels will be
warming, leading to a steepening of low to mid level lapse
rates. The capping inversion over the moist layer will likely
have eroded sufficiently for surface based storm initiation as
early as noon to 1 PM CDT (17-18 UTC) along a line from WaKeeney
to Dodge City. Given the mid level cooling, there is an
accompanying mid level backing of the wind between 700 and
500mb, which could lead to a weakness in the hodographs and a
lessening of the tornado threat. However, the 0-1 km shear will
be quite favorable for rotating storms between 18-21z(1 to 4 pm)
before storms move east of Hays and Pratt. Very large hail and
damaging winds will likely accompany these storms. The Storm
Prediction Center indicates a coverage of 30% combined severe
weather risk, including locations from Hays to Coldwater and
points east. The latest outlook includes a 10% probability of
"Significant" severe weather. Significant severe weather is
defined as 75+ mph damaging wind gusts, 2" or larger hail,
and/or significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage potential).

After Monday, a tranquil weather pattern will develop across the
central high plains for several days as upper level troughing
shifts from the northern plains into the Midwest. Tuesday will
still be a mild day, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
given continued downslope warming. In the absence of
significant low level moisture, expect strong diurnal
temperature ranges, with highs falling into the lower to mid 70s
and lows falling into the 40s by mid-week. Lows could even fall
into the high 30s across west central Kansas by late week given
the dry air and light winds. However, freezing temperatures are
unlikely. Probabilistically, the ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means
only show 10-20% probabilities of lows less than 40 across
extreme western Kansas, with near 0% chances of 32 degrees or
less. However, experience tells us that lows typically get
colder near the Colorado state line in these regimes than the
various model guidances suggest. Therefore, some readings less
than 40 seem more likely to this forecaster at locations such as
Syracuse, which is located in a valley.

The ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means both indicate an upper level
trough forming over the desert southwest next weekend, with
continued upper level troughing over the eastern USA. This is a
relatively cool and stable pattern. However, increasing mid
level moisture along with a mid level thermal gradient could
result in areas of light rain by Saturday or Sunday. Both of the
ensemble means show only 20-40% chances of rainfall .10" or
greater. Thus, the chances for significant rainfall are very
low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A warm front will lift to the north through the night switching
the winds to the southeast and bring in lower level moisture
which will cause mid to low level clouds to form. Cloud ceilings
should start to fall between 11-14Z for LBL, DDC, and GCK to
MVFR flight category. Winds will increase by 15Z and with the
mixing we should see the clouds start to break and celiings
increase back to VFR flight category. Winds in the afternoon
will be sustained around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024


A dryline will sweep across the west late Monday morning
followed by a cold front in the late morning and early
afternoon, reinforcing the dry air and downsloping winds. A
combination for low relative humidity and frequent wind gusts in
excess of 20 mph may crate critical fire weather conditions for
a large portion of the area west of highway 23. A Fire Weather
Watch has been posted for the 9 southwesternmost counties for
Monday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99