Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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218 FXUS63 KDDC 122028 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 328 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginally severe t-storms are forecast for this evening. There are chances for thunderstorms through tonight. - Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday night. - Mainly dry weather is forecast Thursday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 An upper level cold pool (-16 to -18C at 500mb) was entering extreme western Kansas this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms developing near the Colorado state line will increase in areal coverage through the afternoon. Other storms will pop up just about anywhere with daytime heating given the lack of a strong mid level capping inversion. The storms in far southwest Kansas will form a cold pool this evening after evolving into a line. The line could progress as far east as Dodge City and Coldwater before weakening. The heaviest part of the line will tend to shift southward as the highest instability resides across Oklahoma. Given the decent lapse rates across the far southwest and presence of a surface boundary, along with the -17C cold pool, weak landspout tornadoes may occur before the storms evolve into a line. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The next item of concern is thunderstorm chances Tuesday night through Wednesday night. An upper level disturbance will approach CO/WY Tuesday evening. Ahead of this feature, air mass recovery will take place on the western high plains (to the west of Kansas) Tuesday evening. Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday. Thunderstorms will likely form to the west of Kansas and then congeal into a large cluster of storms Tuesday night. These storms will be fed by a 35 kt low level jet across western Kansas Tuesday night, with the best chances of storms with heavy rains along I-70 and possibly as far south as Garden City and Dodge City. This overnight convection will push an effective frontal boundary southwest Kansas so that high temperatures should fall into the 70s on Wednesday. As the disturbance approaches Wednesday, it is likely that additional heavy rains will develop south and east of southwestern Kansas where the warm sector instability will reside. As a result, any rains across southwest Kansas may be lighter in nature by Wednesday. However, some of the model ensemble means keep the warm sector farther north Wednesday, with a weaker storm cluster Tuesday night. If this happens, as shown by the GEFS and ICON ensembles, then then heavy rain chances would be delayed until Wednesday and Wednesday night. The bottom line is that there is a lot of uncertainty in the extent and timing of any t-storm clusters in the Tuesday night to Wednesday night time frame, as is typical during the warm season; and every ensemble suite has a different solution. That said, for those interested in a probabilistic outlook, the preferred ECMWF ensemble mean indicates 10-30% chances for .5" of greater rain in central Kansas Tuesday night and 30-40% chances of .5" or greater across central Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night, with lesser chances farther southwest. Drier weather is expected by Thursday and into the weekend. The upper level jet is expected to retreat northward into the northern plains through the weekend, with warmer and mainly dry weather across southwest Kansas. That said, there have been dramatic day to day changes in the various model ensembles for this time frame so that this dry forecast is made with below average confidence. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 MVFR CIGS will gradually improve to VFR or high MVFR early in the period with daytime heating. However, an upper level low is approaching Kansas this afternoon and thunderstorms will develop near KGCK and KDDC between 20-23z and may impact the TAF sites. Another round of storms will develop close to the upper low by 22-00z in far western Kansas and move eastward, probably impacting KGCK and KDDC with gusty winds to 40 kts and brief heavy rain between 01 and 04z. A wind shift will occur between 06 and 09z, with north winds increasing by 15z to 15 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Finch