000
FXUS63 KDDC 241114
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION, CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO
HAS DIMINISHED ALMOST COMPLETELY BY 330 AM. HIGH RESOLUTION
FORECAST MODELS AND THE NAM HAD BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THAT
ACTIVITY ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMA AND WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW THIS SEEMED REASONABLE. HOWEVER, WITH THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AND HAVING LESS AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, I
STILL CAN`T DISCOUNT THE FACT THAT SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST A SMALL
POSITIVE AREA (ELEVATED) DURING THE MORNING AND WITH THE PRESENCE
OF THE JET MAXIMA I WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SMALL POPS. THE THREAT
SHOULD LESSEN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY. BREAKS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. HIGH TERRAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
APPROACH FAR WESTERN KS BY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. SFC BASED
CAPE SHOULD BE MODERATELY ROBUST FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.

TONIGHT STRATUS SHOULD ADVECT BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND
WILL HELP KEEP MINS UP (ALONG WITH A CONTINUED SLOW INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

ON SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/DRYLINE DEVELOPS
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
TO +12 TO +14C ABOVE THIS EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE BOUNDARY BY 00Z
SUNDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND EXPECTED
HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME CONVECTION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30-40KNOTS, MUCAPES RANGED
FROM 2000-3000J/KG AND 700-500MB LAPSE RAGES GREATER THAN 8C/KM. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BECOMING SEVERE.

A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. MODELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HOWEVER PLACE THE DRYLINE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND EXTENDED IT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. INSTABILITY SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT 0-6KM SHEAR BASED ON THE 00Z NAM IS EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER. 0-10KM BULK SHEAR HOWEVER IMPROVES TO GREATER
THAN 40KTS. IN ADDITION A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO BE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE LATE DAY HEATING/INSTABILITY
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY/MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL AM UNABLE TO RULE OUT
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY STORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

BASED ON 00Z NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 850-700MB TEMPERATURES
EACH EVENING...HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO MID 90S STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
BOTH DAYS. THE WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY.

A SLOWLY MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
THIS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS SYSTEM AND OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE BOUNDARY/DRYLINE IS ALSO FORECAST BE
LINGERING IN/NEAR WESTERN KANSAS. EXACTLY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE EACH EVENING EARLY NEXT WEEK IS UNCLEAR BUT GIVEN THE WARM, DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS DRYLINE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS POSITIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE
DAY STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS IFR
CIGS AT GCK AND DDC IMPROVE TO 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. BASED ON 06Z
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS THESE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. LOW VFR CIGS AT HAYS WILL
BRIEFLY FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 14 AND 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  62  89  62 /  20  20  10  20
GCK  79  62  91  63 /  20  20  10  30
EHA  82  62  92  62 /  20  20  10  30
LBL  80  62  91  63 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  74  62  90  64 /  30  30  10  30
P28  76  65  87  65 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT