Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Surface high pressure ridge axis (1020-1022 mb) remains sprawled
over SW KS this morning, keeping winds light and variable. Broken
to overcast midlayer clouds (near 8-10k ft) persist across the
southern 2/3 of the CWA. Thunderstorms developing along I-40 are
expected to remain south of SW KS this morning. That said, NAM and
HRRR solutions both suggest a weak shortwave embedded in the NW
flow aloft may generate a few showers and rumbles of thunder
across far SW Kansas early this morning. Whatever showers that do
materialize are expected to be gone by sunrise.

Another pleasant, comfortable day on tap for Saturday, especially
considering early summer standards. Cool/dry surface high pressure
ridge will maintain its influence on SW KS today, keeping
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal (normal for late June
is 90) and dewpoints comfortable (upper 40s to lower 50s). Another
bonus today will be much less wind than yesterday; winds today
will trend SEly as high pressure begins to weaken, but they will
remain 10 mph or less with a weak pressure gradient forecast.
Model soundings do suggest mid level moisture will remain trapped
through much of Saturday, keeping the sky mostly cloudy with
midlevel cloud decks near 8-10k ft persisting. All zones will
remain dry through the daylight hours, with surface ridging
keeping instablity absent.

Tonight, inherited some 20-40% pops for shower and thunderstorm
activity, highest in the SW zones. Some models (such as ECMWF)
suggest some convection may propogate into the western zones
courtesy of the NW flow aloft. NAM/GFS are drier, but do show
showers and storms SW of SW KS, from SE Colorado to the Texas
panhandle through late tonight. Given this arrangement, and the
tendency for NW flow to offer the occasional surprise, kept
chance/scattered category pops across the SW counties tonight.
Lows Sunday morning in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Saturday night into Sunday will see the upper pattern remain
unchanged with a large upper trough over the eastern half of the
country while a ridge sits over the west. This will leave the
Central Plains under a northwest flow regime as the lee trough
gradually deepens enough to kick high pressure eastward. Expect
this will permit some weak moisture return with a few scattered
thunderstorms possible mainly west of highway 283 through Saturday
night and again Sunday evening/overnight. Nonetheless, a mild
temperature regime will persist with afternoon highs in the 70s to
near 80 while lows in the 50s prevail.

Monday then becomes a transition day between the cooler regime
this weekend and a return to more summer-like conditions
Tuesday/Wednesday. Specifically, the upper flow pattern will
gradually turn more zonal over the central CONUS as a wave begins
digging into the Pacific Coast. A few storms may form Monday
evening along a belt of returning moisture ahead of the lee trough
but overall coverage looks small. Attention then shifts to
Tuesday and Wednesday as zonal flow aloft will kick the lee trough
out of the far western High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. This
will likely bring the next round of strong to severe storms along
with temperatures spiking back into the 90s. Thursday into early
Friday will then see a front sink into Kansas in response to a
broad but potent wave digging into the Northern Plains to
Intermountain West. This should continue a risk for severe
thunderstorms both days although with cooler temperatures possible
by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR, dry conditions and good flying weather expected through this
TAF period. Surface high pressure ridge axis will keep winds light
and variable into Saturday morning. As the high weakens, winds
will trend SEly Saturday afternoon, but remain light, at 10 kts or
less. Model soundings show midlayer cloud decks near 8-9k ft AGL
persisting through much of Saturday, but atmosphere will be
stable with no convection.


DDC  55  80  56  79 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  53  78  56  78 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  55  76  55  76 /  10  10  50  40
LBL  56  77  58  77 /  10   0  30  30
HYS  53  78  55  78 /  10  10  20  20
P28  57  82  60  83 /  10   0  10  10




LONG TERM...AJohnson
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