Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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543
FXUS63 KDDC 231725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Strong north winds continue across SW KS early this afternoon,
after the latest dry cold frontal passage this morning. Gusts near
40 mph will continue for a few more hours, before gradually
subsiding late this afternoon. Scattered cirrus will also clear
this afternoon as subsidence arrives behind departing shortwave.
With dewpoints falling back into the 20s, and relative humidity
falling to the 20-25% range, an elevated risk of wildfire spread
will continue through sunset, particularly across the NE zones
near Hays.

Tonight...clear and seasonably chilly. NW winds will diminish
some with the loss of diurnal mixing at sunset. Still, the surface
pressure gradient will remain fairly tight as strong 1040 mb
surface high only builds into Wyoming. As such, NW winds will
remain elevated and modestly gusty overnight, still up to 20 mph
at times. Despite the clear sky and dry air, winds are expected to
keep temperatures from falling too far Tuesday morning, with lows
ranging from the mid 30s west to the lower 40s east.

Tuesday...Sunny and windy. Pressure gradients will remain tight
through Tuesday morning, so expect N/NW winds to pick up rapidly
just after sunrise once mixing commences. Gusts again near 35 mph
for a few hours. Winds will weaken rapidly by late afternoon, per
NAM`s forecast of a 1027 mb surface high pressure ridge arriving
in the western zones by 7 pm. Very dry atmosphere expected
Tuesday, with afternoon dewpoints falling into the teens. Should
be difficult to find a cloud tomorrow. Models also show continued
cool advection, with 850 mb temperature trends of about -2C versus
Monday. As such, expecting most locations to only achieve lower
60s Tuesday afternoon (about 5 degrees below late October
normals).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Medium range models show a northwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains through the end of the week while a
predominately west to northwest flow near the surface reinforces a
dry air mass across the region. As a result, precip chances will
remain remote for western Kansas through at least Thursday. Near
normal temperatures are likely Tuesday as prevailing northerlies
continue to funnel cooler air into the high plains of western
Kansas. Expect highs only up into the 60s(F) Tuesday afternoon.
Should see a brief warm up Tuesday as weak lee side troughing
develops across eastern Colorado setting up a west-southwest
downslope flow into western Kansas. This will help push highs into
the 70s(F) Wednesday afternoon with near 80F possible in west
central and extreme southwest Kansas. Much cooler temperatures
will arrive by week`s end as a strong cold front pushes through
western Kansas early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

VFR/SKC is expected through this TAF forecast period. Cirrus will
diminish this afternoon, leaving SKC tonight through Tuesday.
Strong N/NW winds will continue to impact aviation this afternoon,
with gusts exceeding 35 kts at times. NW winds will diminish some
after sunset, but remain modestly gusty overnight. After 15z
Tuesday, expect strong N/NW winds to quickly resume at all
airports once daytime mixing commences. Gusts again near 35 kts
expected on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  38  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  66  37  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  64  35  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  65  36  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  67  41  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  44  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner



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