Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
540 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 421 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Radar mosaic shows a frontogenetically forced snow band has moved
into the far northern sections of the forecast area along I-70.
KDOT webcams are showing snow accumulating on road surfaces and
especially grassy areas. Also getting some reports of slick roads
in that area. Have decided to include a Winter Weather Advisory
for the Ellis/Trego county areas for this morning to highlight the
snow and increasingly hazardous driving conditions. Short term
models show the area of 700 mb frontogenesis weakening rapidly and
propagating southeast over the next 2-4 hours. The area of snow
should diminish as well with only very light snow or flurries
continuing into the morning before coming to an end.

Strong cold advection is developing behind the front which has moved
through all of south central and southwest Kansas as of 3 am.
Today will see a non-diurnal trend in temperatures. Current
temperatures in the lower 30s should fall into the upper teens and
20s by this afternoon. With clearing skies later this afternoon
and tonight, temperatures should fall sharply after dark.
Overnight lows could drop as low as -5 degF along I-70 with lower
single digits above zero expected along the Oklahoma border. Gusty
winds will diminish after dark but should be at least 5-10 mph
later tonight which will push wind chill temperatures down into
advisory criteria. The current advisory for tonight looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 421 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

A deep and elongated upper trough will extend from the Great
Lakes into the High Plains Tuesday morning. The very cold airmass
will linger over the western High Plains through the day with high
temperatures similar to today, give or take. By Tuesday evening
the upper trough will be migrating east out of the region. Low
level warm advection will develop Tuesday night. Low temperatures
should be a little warmer, especially over far southwest Kansas
where the effects of the warm advection will be noticed first.

The remainder of the week will see a continuation of the
moderating temperatures with highs climbing back above normal into
the 50s and 60s by Thursday and Friday. A weak upper trough will
move east over the central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday
but this system will have little moisture to work with. The
GEM,GFS and ECMWF are all coming into better agreement with a
strong upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains
this weekend. The models show an upper low closing off over
eastern Colorado and moving out over central and northern Kansas
Saturday night into Sunday. This system could produce a significant
High Plains snow storm but given the current track, the most
significant impacts including blowing and drifting snow would be
over Nebraska with northern Kansas getting more of a glancing blow.
Given that the storm is still several days away, the exact track
of this storm could vary even more in the next few days. Any
farther southward adjustment to the track would increase winter
weather impacts especially over west central and parts of
southwest Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Light snow across central Kansas will gradually diminish through
the morning hours. MVFR to locally IFR cigs will gradually lift
through the morning and early afternoon, with VFR cigs giving way
to clear skies tonight. Gusty northerly winds will persist through
the daylight hours before diminishing.


DDC  25  -1  20   4 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  24  -2  22   6 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  27   3  27  12 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  28   2  24   7 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  19  -5  15   1 /  20   0   0   0
P28  27   1  19   3 /  40   0   0   0


Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
for KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-076>081.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ030-031.



LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.