Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 010814
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
314 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Cold front that brought scattered thunderstorms to roughly our
southwest half of the cwa last evening has moved south and east of
the dvn cwa. Skies were clear early this morning as high pressure
was beginning to build into the area. 3 am temperatures ranged
from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Elsewhere, temperatures were in the upper 30s to mid 40s in
northern MN and the eastern Dakotas near the center of the high
pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Forecast focus on spectacular weather to begin the month of July.

Today: Canadian high pressure will continue building into the
area providing comfortable temperatures and humidity. Other than
some fair weather cumulus clouds there will be plenty of sunshine.
Afternoon high temperatures should range from the mid 70s along
Highway 20 to around 80 in our far south.

Tonight: The center of the high will be over the area allowing for
clear skies and rather cool temperatures in our northern and
eastern cwa. However, low pressure moving into the southern
Plains will return a warm front into KS and southern MO. Showers
and thunderstorms will be on the increase during the night across
northern KS and central MO. Clouds will increase in our southwest
cwa after midnight but dry air in the low levels should hold off
any rain until Saturday morning. Minimum temperatures will range
from around 50 at Freeport, IL to the upper 50s at Memphis, MO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Saturday...the frontal boundary which had pushed south of the CWA
begins a slow return northeastward during the weekend.  GFS and GEM
are more aggressive with the northeast push and QPF, but have opted
toward the more conservative ECMWF and NAM solutions given the fetch
of dry, low-level air coming into the the CWA from the northeast.

Eventually on Sunday rain chances migrate as far north as I-80, but
the highest potential continue to remain to our south, especially
along the Iowa-Missouri border into contiguous parts of west central
Illinois. Overall with this event I would not expect more than
localized, temporary relief to drought conditions unless the
storm track and heavier rainfall shifts northward.

As has been the pattern the past week or two surface high pressure
pushes into the area Monday, but with less clouds will actually see
temps closer to normal.  Dry conditions will persist into Tuesday.

As the high shifts east, heat makes a serious push back into the
Midwest beginning Tuesday with near normal temps.  But this just
hints at the upward trend Wednesday with a return of 90s to the
south, and Thursday with 90s over most of the CWA and the potential
for heat index values in the advisory criteria.

The warm front on the leading edge of the heat dome could be the
focus for some thunderstorm activity.  But model variance is high so
it is difficult to lock on to anything more than chance PoPs at this
time for Wednesday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A cold front moving through the area overnight will be followed by
high pressure, which will remain the main weather feature through
Friday. A period of very light north winds and lingering low
level moisture may lead to at least light fog, and a period of 4SM
to 5SM visibilities was added to all the TAF sites for several
hours around sunrise. Friday should see VFR conditions at all
sites with light north to northeast surface winds.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Wolf
AVIATION...Sheets



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