Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 010746
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
246 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016

Convection continues to slowly and steadily push east early this
morning, progressing through storm outflow rather than the synoptic
cold front, which is still well west of the cwa. This front is
positioned from Minneapolis to near Omaha at 2 AM. Just ahead of the
front, clearing has occurred, resulting in fog development in the
light wind field. This fog may become widespread enough to warrant
an advisory prior to sunrise today.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016

The convection should be exiting the area during the early morning
hours today, and a dry day is expected over the entire area. I may
need to keep a hour or two of slight chances in the far east pending
the timing of the line exit.

Fog will likely be problematic, and will need to watch that
carefully for a potential advisory. For now, it seems most likely to
remain in our far west, where skies are at least thinning now.
However, west winds will begin to increase through the rest of the
overnight, which may diminish this fog as well. It is not an easy
call, but will at least put some fog in the grids through the 13Z
period in the west.

Otherwise, today will see decreasing clouds, a well mixed high in
the mid 70s north to lower 80s south, and comfortable dewpoints in
the 50s arriving this afternoon. By all accounts, this evening should
be spectacular for outdoor activities.  Tonight, with clear skies,
and light northwest winds, lows should drop to the lower 50s north
to upper 50s south. Looks like a good night to give the air
conditioner a rest in June.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area on Thursday
with temperatures slightly above normal.

The quiet and dry conditions will continue Thursday evening as high
pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, return flow and
moisture moves back into the area. The stronger return flow and
better moisture remains to the north and west of the area. Thus
there are questions regarding the amount of moisture available that
a passing upper level disturbance will have to work with to produce
precipitation.

Since it is early June and triggers to generate convection are
weaker, slight chance pops were included late Thursday night for
most areas along/north of highway 30. As for Friday morning, the
slight chance pops were included for areas along/east of an
Independence, IA to Princeton, IL line.

Friday afternoon should be dry across the area as the upper level
disturbance moves into the Great Lakes. Attention then turns to the
next approaching cold front.

Friday night a seasonably strong cold front moves into the area.
Increased moisture and forcing should allow a band of showers and
thunderstorms to develop along the front. Ahead of the front
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop as moisture streams into the area.

Saturday on...

The cold front sweeps through the area on Saturday. There should be
a fairly significant band of showers and thunderstorms associated
with the front as it moves through the area. The model consensus has
chance pops for the area.

Saturday night lingering showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible across the area. The model consensus has slight chance to
low chance pops for the area.

Sunday through Monday, A seasonably strong upper low will be over
the Great Lakes. Several weak disturbances will be moving along in
the flow aloft. These disturbances combined with daytime heating
should allow some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. As such the
model consensus has slight chance pops over the northeast half of
the area on Sunday, and the far northeast areas for Sunday night and
Monday.

Monday night and Tuesday the model consensus has dry conditions for
the area as high pressure builds into the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

A line of showers and thunderstorms stretched from KDBQ to KMLI
to KBRL and will exit the terminals by 07 UTC. Expect periods of
MVFR TO IFR ceilings and visibilities especially at KMLI and KBRL
where the heaviest of storm cores is now entering the TAF sites.
Precipitation will exit to the east by 07 UTC with possibly MVFR
ceilings through 09 UTC. Skies will clear from west to east
starting at KCID after 09 UTC. Aviation fog is possible at CID
from 09 to 12 utc. The cold front will exit the taf sits by 12 utc
with winds switching to the west. VFR conditions will prevail
through the remainder of the period.


&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Cousins



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