Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 190804
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
304 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be noticeably warmer today. There will also be dry air
  in place and windy conditions. These conditions will combine
  to produce another day of enhanced fire danger across the
  area.

- The upper level weather pattern is forecast to become more
  active Thursday into early next week as a series of passing
  storm systems bring precipitation chances to the area. Models
  continue to have the freezing line across the Upper Midwest
  during the period and there may be enough cold air in place
  above the surface to produce a rain/snow mix or all snow with
  these storms systems.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

At 2 AM, mid level clouds were moving southwestward across the area
early this morning as a weak disturbance moves across the area.
Winds are southwesterly early this morning with speeds of 10 to 15
MPH with occasional gusts near 20 MPH. Temperatures range from 26
degrees at Cedar Rapids to 30 degrees at Burlington. Dewpoints
across the area are in the teens.

A cold front currently diving into North Dakota and Minnesota
is forecast to sweep across the area this morning and switch the
winds from southwest to northwest by late morning. Winds will
increase quickly this morning with speeds of 10 to 20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 to 35 MPH. These winds will continue through the
afternoon. High temperatures today will be noticeably warmer and
be in the 50s across the area to around 60 especially south of
Interstate 80 with lower 60s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg
line. Relative humidities this afternoon will drop to 30 to 35
percent across much of the area as drier air mixes to the
surface with gusty northwest winds. The warmer temperatures,
gusty winds, and RH in the 30s will combine to create enhanced
fire danger across the area today with the Grassland Fire Danger
Index (GFDI) in the very high category. These values are not
high enough for a Red Flag Warning but do highlight the
potential for dangerous outdoor burning conditions. This
enhanced fire danger will also be highlighted in other products
for today.

The front will stall to our south Tuesday night as high pressure
builds into North Dakota and leaves a tight pressure gradient as we
sit between these two systems. Skies will be clear once again with
northwest winds of 10 to 20 MPH. Low temperatures on Tuesday night
will range from the mid 20s along and north of Highway 30 to the
lower 30s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Wednesday...It will be a cool and breezy day across the mid to upper
Mississippi River Valley as surface ridging and strengthening
pressure gradient induces NNW sfc winds of 10-20 MPH until they
decrease by late afternoon. LLVL cool baroclinicity aligns
parallel under NW-to-SE steering flow aloft and will look to
tighten from the northwest high plains to the OH RVR Valley.
With the potential for a weak upper wave or trof to ripple down
along this thermal ribbon and the local area looking to be on
the cool side, we may see some periods of flurries or light snow
at times getting milked out of any stratocu deck streaming
across the area especially Wed night. May be initially virga
with the low to mid level dry air in place, but then a few
flakes may be realized at the surface with the ongoing elevated
F-gen/isentropic lift. Wed high temperatures are forecast to be
in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Thursday and Friday...Latest run ensembles and blends still suggest
a bit more organized and vigorous short wave/clipper type system to
propagate along the ongoing baroclinic storm track, with some decent
sfc reflection low pressure development rolling in near or across
the local area late Thu night into Friday morning. This feature
looks to bring rain or a rain-snow mix, and probably all wet snow
looking at the vertical thermal profiles by Thu night. Before hand,
southeasterly return flow ahead of the clipper should bring about a
bit of a sfc temp warm up with highs in the mid to upper 40s across
the southwest half of the DVN CWA. Current indications suggest that
vertical temperatures profiles north of I-80 are trending toward a
rain-snow mix into all snow as the night progresses into, with some
light snow acumms possible especially on elevated surfaces. Several
model blends and ensembles show a 75th percentile of 1-3 inches of
snow along the Hwy 20 corridor by Friday morning. There may also be
a wintry mix transition zone off to the south of the snow before we
get more into a regular rain supporting airmass south of I-80. Still
plenty of details to be worked out. Would think Friday a mostly
cloudy post-frontal day and some worry the loaded blend of temps may
be a bit optimistic on the mild side.

Saturday through Monday...Current ensemble trends suggest there will
be Saturday a lull day in between systems, while some type of longer
wave troughing and rounding upper jet energy organize upstream
acrs the western CONUS and then emerges into the Plains early
Sunday into Monday. As there are long range signs of a mild
moist conveyor streaming northward off the western Gulf to the
lee of this trof complex, precip chances may really ramp up from
late Sat night or Sunday into early next week although the last
model runs have slowed this system down slightly. But with the
spread between model solutions and ensembles, there is very low
confidence in QPF amounts, placements, timing and types of
precipitation at this juncture in the game. The one consistent
signal is that there may be a significant storm system
traversing the Plains and into the Upper Midwest this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Main issue this TAF period will be focused on winds. Otherwise
expect VFR TAFs through the period. Latest 0506Z IR satellite
has some mid and high clouds moving across the region with the
clipper system moving on through to the north and east. As the
clipper system moves on through expect surface winds to increase
this morning. In this period, winds aloft will be much higher,
and LLWS is forecast at 2000 ft AGL, where winds are west to
southwest at 40-50 kts. This LLWS should continue though 14Z
Tuesday. Expect LLWS to start to decay and winds at the surface
shift to west to northwest. The LLWS should should continue a
little longer near KBRL and ending near 17Z. Otherwise expect
scattered mid and high clouds to diminish later in TAF pd.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins/12
AVIATION...Holicky


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