Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 310437
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAD TO
INCREASE THE POPS SOUTH OF I80 AS SOME PRECIP WAS RECORDED AT IOWA
CITY. CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND SHOULD
BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW SPRINKLES MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF I80 FOR
SPRINKLES. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AS A RESULT...BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE NW AREA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CURRENT TRENDS
SUPPORTS THAT AS WELL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE NOON A MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT SCOTT COUNTY IA TO BUREAU COUNTY IL. HERE AT
THE WFO DVN WE PICKED UP .01 INCH OF RAIN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH HAS ENDED THE RAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AND THE SUN
WAS SHINING IN OUR WESTERN AND SW CWA...BUT MORE CLOUDS WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN IA WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MN WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES THERE WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER AND VERY WINDY THROUGH HALLOWEEN.

TONIGHT...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CLEARING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
THEN TO FOLLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
AT INDEPENDENCE IA TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES. WE WILL
NEED TO TALK ABOUT COLD WIND CHILLS AS THEY DROP TO 10 TO 15 NW TO
THE LOWER 20S SE BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...THIS DAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SETTING UP A
TIGHT GRADIENT. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. YOU WILL NEED TO REALLY BUNDLE UP
AS WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN THE MORNING WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

WITH 100 PERCENT CERTAINTY...WE WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS PERIOD IN OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH RESPECT TO PUBLIC IMPACT ON TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES...BUT WILL NOW ACTIVATE OUR LAST REMAINING COUNTIES THAT
ARE YET TO HAVE A FREEZE EVENT. OUR SOUTHERNMOST 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES
...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL BE IN A FREEZE WARNING
FOR FRIDAY MID EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE WAPSIPINICON VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING
AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT

SATURDAY...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ROCK RIVER
VALLEY SITES INCLUDING MOLINE TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THE MID 20S
WHILE WESTERN SITES ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE
RIDGE SHIFT EAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROF TO IN THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WITH A
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDWEST. SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AROUND 12 MPH EAST TO 18 MPH WEST...WITH GUST OF
20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. IN OTHER WORDS...SATURDAYS COLD SUNSHINE MAY
BE THE MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND DAY.

MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WORK UP THROUGH THIS DEEP FLOW...AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROF EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVES INTO  IOWA
MONDAY...THEY ALL SHOW IT TO BE AN ACTIVE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE CANADIAN IS MOST PHASED WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LEAST PHASED AND MOST
PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE...AND MAY BE THE BEST FIT FOR
NOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN CHANCE MONDAY
FOR NOW...AND ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS
CONTINUED NOW INTO TUESDAY EAST. AS THE SYSTEM PHASING IS MORE
CERTAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE POPS WILL NARROW INTO A MORE TIGHT
WINDOW OF TIME...BUT FOR NOW ARE OVER 3 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN ZONAL
FLOW WITH SYSTEM MAINLY PASSING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY NOW FOR TONIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT CID WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. AFTER THAT CONCERN TOMORROW IS WITH THE HIGH WINDS. WINDS
FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OR TWO ABOVE 30 KTS. CROSSWINDS
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT SITES WITHOUT A NORTH TO SOUTH RUNWAY
STRUCTURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS






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