892
FXUS64 KEWX 151816 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
116 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Clear skies over South Central Texas will allow for some mild to
cool morning lows across the area. High level clouds will increase
over the area today along with some patchy low level cumulus.
Afternoon temperatures will range from the upper 80s in the far
northeast portion of the CWA and over the Hill Country to the upper
90s along the Rio Grande. Dry conditions are expected today with the
one exception in the far west where a few storms may form over the
higher terrain in Mexico in the afternoon and cross the Rio Grande.
Confidence if thunderstorms make it into our western reaches is
still uncertain given only moderate mid level flow, but modest
instability and bulk shear around 50 knots would support severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main
threats if they do. SPC has highlighted this potential with a level
1 of 5 risk for severe storms over the Rio Grande Plains and
southern Edwards Plateau.

Mainly dry conditions are expected overnight with continued
southerly flow. Lows will be warmer than those of this morning as
stratus is expected to develop Thursday morning over the majority of
the area.

An upper trough will be located over the far southwestern CONUS
Thursday morning, expected to move east towards the Southern and
Central Plains during the day. At the surface, a few boundaries will
exist near or over the area with a dryline to the far west, a weak
cold front to the north and a warm front expected to move north
towards South Central Texas on Thursday. Precipitation chances begin
as early as Thursday morning across much of the area with mainly
isolated or scattered shower activity possible during that time.
Thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon as
temperatures rise with initiation most likely over Hill Country,
northern I-35 corridor or Coastal Plains north of I-10 and north of
the warm front. Any storms could become supercellular with large
hail and damaging wind the main threats. SPC continues the level 2
of 5 risk generally north of I-10 with a level 1 of 5 risk almost
everywhere else except along the Rio Grande. Additionally, there is
still the potential for heavy rainfall as this system moves through
with a level 2 of 4 for excessive rain also north of I-10. Given the
surface features, except the bulk of any activity to be over the
northeastern portion of the CWA and areas northward. South of this,
it is possible little will be seen in the way of thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Convection will continue Thursday evening over the eastern half of
the CWA and move off to the east by around midnight. A cold front
will move through the region Friday, but after Thursday`s convection
there will only be enough moisture for more rain along and southeast
of the I-35 Corridor during the morning and afternoon. And even in
this area chances will be low. Friday night an upper level ridge will
begin moving in from the west starting an extended dry period. This
ridge will slowly move across TX over the weekend. As it does
temperatures will warm. Highs will reach the 90s to 105 by Saturday
and remain there through the end of the period. Record highs may be
possible along the Rio Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon as high clouds move in
from the west. Some gusty southeast winds can be expected out west at
DRT and the latest hi-res models continue to show a chance for
thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain west of the Rio
Grande, then moving east toward the terminal late afternoon into
early evening. We will continue to mention a PROB30 group for TSRA to
cover the possibility of isolated storms. Otherwise, look for low
clouds to return early Thursday morning, with cigs initially MVFR,
then trending downward into IFR around daybreak. Late in the period,
a complex of thunderstorms may impact AUS and we have added a PROB30
group for TSRA to the latest forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  69  81  67 /   0  10  80  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  67  81  67 /   0  10  80  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  69  85  69 /   0  10  60  20
Burnet Muni Airport            89  68  78  65 /   0  10  80  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  77 101  70 /  20  20  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  66  78  66 /   0  10  90  30
Hondo Muni Airport             94  70  88  67 /  10  20  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  67  83  67 /   0  10  70  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  68  83  70 /   0  10  80  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  70  85  69 /   0  10  50  10
Stinson Muni Airport           94  72  87  71 /   0  10  50  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Platt