048
FXUS65 KFGZ 092153
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
253 PM MST Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will slowly warm with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Expect typical
spring-like breezes each afternoon, and above normal temperatures
returning by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the
Bay Area to the Upper Midwest this afternoon. Arizona is on the
southern edge of this trough with southwest-westerly winds aloft.
This trough will slowly move southward over the next few days as
it weakens...and becomes a cut off low. A few rain showers and
virga showers developed over the high country this afternoon. More
showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Precipitation
will be limited to the northern zones on Saturday and more likely
in the Four Corners area. By Sunday, only the Four Corners will
see a few showers.

A weak low from the Pacific will drive over Arizona on Monday with
isolated showers. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will drop
south out of Canada and across Arizona with a chance of a few more
showers.

Temperatures will remain below average on Friday then ramp up to
above average on Sunday. Afternoon highs likely reaching 70+
degrees for many areas above 6000 feet...with areas below 3000
feet reaching the 90s. Winds still look to be typical spring-
like breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 09/18Z through Friday 10/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are expected with passing mid/high clouds today. Breezy
E to NE winds will turn W to SW at 10-20 kts this afternoon for
areas from KFLG south. N to NE winds persist for areas to the
north. Visibility reductions are possible at times in the
vicinity of KFLG due to smoke from a prescribed fire just south of
the airport.

OUTLOOK...Friday 10/18Z through Sunday 12/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions
are forecast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible north of
a KFLG-KRQE line each afternoon. Daytime winds W to SW 10-15 kts gusting
20-25 kts. Areas of smoke and haze are also possible due to area fires,
including near KFLG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Cool and breezy weather will
continue. Expect mostly dry conditions, though an isolated shower or
thunderstorm is possible mainly north of a Grand Canyon to Window
Rock line. West to southwest winds Friday of 10-20 mph, becoming
west to northwest Saturday at 15-25 mph. Afternoon humidity dropping
into the 10-25% range with good overnight recovery.

Sunday through Tuesday...Low pressure over the region will continue
to bring a low chance (around 10%) for mountain showers in the
afternoon. Temperatures warm to above average with afternoon
humidity of 10 to 20%. West-northwest winds 10-20 mph each
afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff