Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 290458 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1158 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

For 06Z TAFs.


(Issued 849 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016)

The mid-upper trough/low that brought showers and storms earlier
today through this evening is continuing to move across the OH/MS
river valleys. This feature is still bringing an almost linear area
of diminishing showers across the TN valley. These light to very
light showers are all that remains of the cluster of showers/storms
that were progressing across MS and northern AL. With loss of daytime
heating and lack of instability not expecting any further development
of thunderstorms overnight. However, there is enough lift and
moisture to support additional isolated to scattered showers. So,
though updates have already taken place with shifting POPs/Wx based
on the trends this evening, did proceed with this update to remove
thunderstorms until late tomorrow morning. Furthermore, also reduced
POPs significantly with a NW (higher)/SE (lower) gradient. Addressing
the POPs/Wx for tomorrow morning, instability is fairly limited until
the noon timeframe. So, may only see isolated embedded thunderstorms
within the shower activity.

Lastly, tweaks to the air and dewpoint temperature forecast were
also necessary to account for rain-cooled air that was cooler or
warmer that what was forecast.



For 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for at least the next 4 hours
before IFR cigs develop and move east towards northern AL. Some
uncertainty exists with the timing of these low clouds. As a result,
have only added a tempo group fro this possibility btwn
29/07Z-29/11Z. In addition, there could be some isolated showers
btwn 29/06Z-29/12Z but have not added to TAF due to isolated nature.
Then as an upper disturbance moves across the region, TSRA are likely
after 29/17Z until around 29/01z when they become more isolated-



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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