Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 011946
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
246 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR MSL TO 4A9. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WERE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEARLY 60
DEGREES. TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ON THURSDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IN WARMER/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
INCREASING AND SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIFTED INDICES DO DROP TO BETWEEN
-4 TO -6 ALONG WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT THAT THE SLIGHT SEVERE PROBABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ON EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AS TEMPS IN SOME VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. A
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN
MOMENTUM BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS/TSRA EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING HAS STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION VERY LOW...CAUSING A LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OR
OCCURRENCE OF ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT DOES
SO...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND QUITE A BIT
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. A BKN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY
12Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINING WITH THE LIFT TO PROVIDE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE
VCSH.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  79  60  75 /  20  40  20  60
SHOALS        57  79  61  75 /  20  40  20  70
VINEMONT      56  77  59  74 /  20  40  20  60
FAYETTEVILLE  55  75  59  73 /  20  40  20  60
ALBERTVILLE   57  75  57  74 /  20  40  20  50
FORT PAYNE    53  76  56  74 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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