Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 312002
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
302 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong late August heating, along with available moisture has
resulted in scattered cumulus formation, and more recently a few
showers/thunderstorms. Afternoon high temperatures thus far have
warmed into the lower 90s most spots, with light and variable winds.

On a larger scale, one worry for the shorter term is the eventual
development and movement of now Tropical Storm Hermine (aka TD #9) as
it slowly begins a drift toward the northeast. This tropical system
per se will have minimal impact on our sensible weather given its
track is to the northeast; across the Florida Big Bend region late on
Thursday, and exiting the SE CONUS GA/SC coast on Friday. Also, a
frontal boundary was draped in a west to east fashion from Lake
Ontario to across OH/IN/IL to eastern Nebraska. This boundary as a
cold front should slowly move southward, moving across the forecast
area during Thursday.

For the short term...due to strong daytime heating and resulting
instability, isolated showers and thunderstorms should continue into
the mid evening. The stronger storms the could produce gusty outflow
winds, brief heavy rainfall and occasional lighting strikes.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the
Tennessee Valley on Thursday, as the above noted cold front makes a
move across the area in the afternoon and early evening. Went a bit
higher with rain chances across areas east of Interstate 65 Thursday
afternoon. By the evening, Hermine will be closer to the Florida Big
Bend region. Current timing suggests an overnight landfall somewhere
along the coast, possibly as a minimal hurricane. The rain shield
around the northwest periphery of this system should remain well to
our southeast. Thus stayed dry forecast wise for the Tennessee
Valley, which should occur given the cold front should be oriented
near the I-20 corridor on Friday. Also, both the NAM/GFS guidance is
suggesting a near breezy day Friday, with northerly winds in the
10-20 mph range. Highs on Friday will also be a tad cooler with highs
in the mid 80s, and more comfortable with lower relative humidities
too.

A mainly dry forecast otherwise is expected for the upcoming Labor
Day holiday period and early next week, as high pressure becomes the
main influence on our sensible weather. Despite the cold front
passage, daily high temperatures will slowly warm into the upper 80s
Saturday, and into the lower 90s from next Monday through Wednesday.
Said mainly dry, as an intrusion of moisture could bring lower end
rain chances to our western areas during Tuesday afternoon.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1207 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Scattered 4-6kft clouds will increase this afternoon and clear out
again overnight. Winds will generally be 5-8kt each afternoon and
light and variable overnight.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    72  90  66  87 /  20  20  10  10
Shoals        72  89  66  86 /  20  20  10  10
Vinemont      71  89  67  86 /  20  20  10  10
Fayetteville  70  87  63  85 /  20  30  10  10
Albertville   71  89  68  85 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Payne    69  89  66  85 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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