Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 261817
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
117 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Water vapor imagery and stream flow indicate an upper high off the
southeast U.S. coast and a ridge extending across the TN valley.
A trof axis was now working northward along the central and western
Gulf Coast, dividing what was a more expansive ridge across the
entire southern CONUS. A band of convection on it`s eastern flank was
moving north into south AL and MS. At the surface, a nearly
stationary front stretched from near Cincinnati into the Missouri
Ozark Plateau. A weak convergence axis was also draped along and
near the I-20/59 corridor.
Latent heating should still instigate a few showers or thunderstorms
this afternoon into early this evening. But lacking dynamic forcing,
will shut off precip chances by 03-04Z. On Wednesday, with the
shortwave traveling northward along the MS valley to our west, and
the ridge influencing our eastern areas more fully, we will divide
the POP from higher west and lower east. Wind fields will also
increase a bit more, but lapse rates do not appear substantial to
warrant too much concern for severe weather. Strong storms will be
possible, but very heavy downpours and lightning should be the chief
hazards. As this upper trof begins to blend with the developing trof
axis dropping southeast through the upper MS valley and corn belt on
Thursday into Friday, will go with areawide "likely" POP during the
daytime hours. We may still see a slight nocturnal drop in coverage
of activity due to lack of heating.
Not much variation from suggested blends needed in the day 4-7
period with a general upper trof axis slowly moving into the TN
valley this weekend. A sfc frontal system will also drop in, but
become more diffuse with time into early next week. If you were
hoping for drier air, it does not appear it will occur with dew point
values remaining around the 70 degree mark through the period. At
least temperatures will drop closer to normals for this time of year.
Later next week just beyond this package, an upper ridge is progged
to build again across the central U.S. However, afternoon heating
should drive daily isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity
typical of this time of year.
(Issued 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: Sct cu with bases around 4K ft have developed across
much of the area in response to latent heating. Precip though has
been slow to develop with the absence of any real lifting mechanism
closer to the two main terminals. Given the low prob, no precip was
included for the afternoon period with VFR conds prevailing well into
Wed. Convective chances though will increase during the day Wed, as
an upper disturbance begins to impact the region. Outside of any
shra/tsra though, VFR conds look to continue with mainly just an
increase in mid/high clouds.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville 73 90 72 87 / 20 50 40 70
Shoals 74 91 74 87 / 20 60 50 70
Vinemont 73 88 71 87 / 20 50 30 70
Fayetteville 72 90 72 83 / 20 40 50 70
Albertville 73 88 71 85 / 20 40 20 70
Fort Payne 72 89 70 85 / 20 40 20 70
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