Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 310214 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
914 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WX AGAIN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA THIS LATE WED
EVENING...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WNW AS AN UPPER SHRTWV TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AREA RADARS W ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS PERHAPS CROSSING
THE MS RIVER...ALTHOUGH IT`S QUESTIONABLE WHETHER MUCH OF THIS PRECIP
IS REACHING THE SFC INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WRN TN/MS. CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA...LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOME SPOTS THX IN PART
TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE ENE.
THIS VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ALBEIT THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL MAKE THIS TRANSITION SOMEWHAT TOUGH. NEVERTHELESS...WITH TEMP
TRENDS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S RANGE...TEMPS
FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES MAY NOT BE THAT DIFFICULT HEADING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH DEW PTS NEAR 60. THIS STILL WILL
TRANSLATE INTO AN UNSEASONABLY COOL THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH NOTHING OF
THE MAGNITUDE SEEN WITH THE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING. FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK TO HAVE THIS PATTERN REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL...AND OTHER THAN
SOME MINOR EDITS ON SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WNW...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SFC SHOULD
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOM LIGHT/VAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE NE.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 126 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/
NWLY FLOW WAS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW/TROF CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING SEWD THRU KS/OK PRODUCING A
WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN THAT WAS SPREADING INTO SRN MO AND WRN AR.
NELY SFC FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING FROM
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID SOUTH AND A SFC LOW PARKED OVER SRN GA/NRN
FL. SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST OVER THE TN VALLEY THRU THURSDAY AND
SHOULD KEEP TWO PRECIP AREAS HALTED TO OUR SW/W AND E/SE.
NEVERTHELESS, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, SO MORNING LOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.

STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE TO OUR SW ON THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND TO OUR SE IN GA/ERN
AL AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. IN FACT, SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE SMOKIES/SRN APP MTNS OF
GA/TN/NC. MEANWHILE, OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN LIFTING
ZONES, SO EXACT POP AND AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR BEST THREAT
OF RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
LIFTS NE INTO NRN MS/AL AND SRN TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
500-1000 J/KG CAPE SATURDAY, SO WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS MAKING THE FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN
FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE
GOING SCHC SHRA/TSRA FOR NOW. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE DRYING TREND AT THIS POINT AS THE UPPER TROF MEANDERS ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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