Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHUN 050549
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1149 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 944 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. MANY LOCATIONS
SAW TEMPS PLUMMET 20 OR MORE DEGREES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WITH THIS
FRONT. OBS AROUND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NW ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S. BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...AND LATEST
HRRR/RAP HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...DECIDED TO START THE WINTER
STORM WARNING AT MIDNIGHT FOR FAR NW ALABAMA AND S MIDDLE TN. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING STARTS AT 3AM FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA.

THE MOST RECENT UAH UPPER AIR PROFILER MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 03Z
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE HUNTSVILLE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE
IN THE 850MB LAYER OF +10C WILL ALLOW FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS
FALLING TO MELT COMPLETELY. WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING THIS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. BASED ON
SOUNDING DATA THE WARM NOSE BEGINS TO LIFT AND COOL BETWEEN 10-15Z
THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THIS TIME FRAME THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT ANYTHING FALLING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION
OVER TO A MOSTLY SLEET/LIGHT SNOW MIX. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN POSSIBLE
AROUND NOON AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.30 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE
ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A
HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS WELL.

STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...
05Z OBS SHOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT KMSL. EXPECT PRECIP TO
BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN AT
KMSL. FOR KHSV THIS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL BETWEEN 09-12Z. BETWEEN
14-16Z THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION OVER TO A -IP/SN MIX FOR BOTH TERMINALS AND UP TO A HALF
AN INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 1000-1500FT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND MAY OCCASIONALLY LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 700-800FT DURING
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS POSSIBLE.

ALL PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 18Z AND CIGS SHOULD BEGIN
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2KFT...THEN BECOME VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ004>010-
     016.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ001>003.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.