346
FXUS64 KLUB 121120
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
620 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Active weather will continue for today as an upper low tracks to our
northwest across the Rockies. Surface southeasterly flow will
continue to provide ample Gulf moisture for the development of
showers and thunderstorms this morning. Current radar indicates
light shower activity over the far southwest TX Panhandle. CAMs
indicate an increase in coverage and intensity around 3-4am.
Convection will persist mostly area wide through the morning, and
although some storms may produce brief heavy downpours and small
hail, severe weather is not expected.

Things get slighlty more complicated by the afternoon as a dryline
develops roughly along the I-27 corridor. There are a number of
surface/upper level features interacting with one another and this
will factor into the dryline`s exact timing/position. However,
generally the most favorable moisture and instability looks to occur
off the Caprock and thus showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue across that area through this evening. Due in part to
increased shear, severe weather cannot be ruled out though is not
expected to be widespread. Precipitation may linger as long as into
Monday morning over the Childress area south of the aforementioned
upper low.

With a drier, southerly flow developing west of the dryline in the
afternoon, high temperatures west of I-27 will be significantly
warmer than yesterday, reaching the low-to-mid 80s. Cooler
temperatures will continue off the Caprock where the southeasterly
flow persists.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The upper level trough will be moving east of the area on Monday
with short wave ridging moving overhead on Tuesday leading to a warm
up in temperatures. The next trough to affect the area is currently
in the eastern Pacific and will slowly make its way to southern
California by early Wednesday. This southern stream trough may bring
severe weather to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Upper
level winds will back starting early Wednesday in advance of this
system as it moves across the southwestern US. Although the larger
scale trough will be in Arizona during peak heating on Wednesday and
will have a slight positive tilt, models have been depicting a
weaker short wave out ahead of the parent trough which may be the
main driver of large scale ascent. A roughly 115kt jet will set up
from northern Baja California into Far West Texas placing the South
Plains in a favorable area for wind divergence aloft. Low level
winds will back to the southeast as early as Tuesday beginning to
draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Stronger moisture will not
arrive until Wednesday afternoon. With the larger trough still well
to the west of the area, surface cyclogenesis in New Mexico will
allow for broad southeasterly low level flow keeping moisture locked
up westward into eastern New Mexico. Additionally, analog guidance
shows a high probability of severe weather for Wednesday.
Precipitable water values will increase to around 150 percent of
normal on Wednesday leading to a heavy rain threat. The larger
trough will weaken as it moves east on Thursday but still looks to
be quite potent with a slight eastward position on the upper level
jet. Another day of severe weather will be possible on Thursday but
differences in deterministic models lead to a low confidence
forecast. A cold front may be moving into the area on Thursday
complicating the convective forecast. Temperatures may warm more
significantly late next week as stronger upper level ridging builds
into northern Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Low CIGs will continue at all TAF sites though this afternoon.
IFR/LIFR will likely lift at KLBB and KPVW several hours earlier
than KCDS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected at
all sites. These should end by mid-morning for KLBB and KPVW, but
will persist off and on at KCDS through this evening. Brief gusty
winds and heavy rain could accompany any storms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...19