Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 191710
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1210 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR should transition to MVFR ceilings at all sites early Friday
morning. Else, very light SHRA may greet LBB and PVW later today
and tonight as a decaying upper low arrives.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
This morning, watching satellite loops of IR and water vapor (all
three channels), numerous features pop out. There`s the developing
ridge to our east and a weak, but deepening trough to our southwest
across the Trans-Pecos. We`ll talk about that one in a moment.
Further to the west, over southern NV, there`s another weak trough
causing a bit of unsettled weather. A front is passing across the
Great Lakes region and well back to the east in the Pac NW is a
trough creating considerable storminess for western Washington and
northwestern Oregon. We`ll also talk about the feature in a moment.
Finally, in the water vapor loops, it appears a weak boundary of
sorts has slowly trekked southward across the TX Panhandle and
southern OK enhancing early morning cloudiness for our forecast area.

Now, let`s talk about that first trough. It has slowly been lifting
to the northeast pumping moisture into our region, however, the
moisture profile is not as impressive this morning as previously
expected. It appears dry air will hang out in the mid levels across
much of the forecast area through much of the day, even into the
evening, making it difficult for widespread precipitation to occur.
However, the chance still persists near the TX/NM border where
moisture return has been the highest. Thunder chances are possible
across the far west where skinny CAPE will be present, however,
showers are more likely as the wave progresses eastward. The weak
wave currently over southern NV will give a extra punch on Friday
for a chance of storms across the Rolling Plains in the afternoon.

Now for the Pac NW trough. Models are in good agreement this feature
will continue to deepen as it moves eastward, dragging a cold front
along with it. The feature looks to push south into our forecast
area by late Saturday afternoon/early evening. The question remains
on how far east the center axis of the trough will make it, which
has great bearing on our precipitation chances. The Caprock looks to
remain dry as moisture return after Thursday and Friday will be
meager, and the main energy will be too far east. The Rolling Plains
however, may have a shot at some storms, though the line is fine
attm. The trough and ensuing front may move too fast to allow storm
development, and the cool dry air from the front may take over,
stabilizing the environment quickly. Have kept PoPs for this pkg to
the eastern Rolling Plains.

Past this, the models have once again waffled in solutions, which
there have been many presented over the past few runs. One point of
agreement is the cooler and drier air will be in place over the
region. Looking ahead to next Tuesday, depending on how steep high
pressure over the west builds, a decent front may able to backdoor
into our region from a strong low over the Midwest. Still a number
of days out, but it`s something to look forward to.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

93



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