Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 240909
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A stubborn upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS will tenaciously
hang on through the weekend.  This portends dry weather for these
parts as the flow aloft over the region switches from northerly
around the upper ridge, to northwesterly around the upper ridge due
to the passage of an upper trough translating southeastward through
the midwest U.S.  We`ll likely be dealing with record high
temperatures today as h85 temperatures warm under the eastern extent
of the said upper ridge.  The record high for Midland International
for November 24th is 83, set in 1965.  It appears this will be
equaled/surpassed easily as dry, southwesterly, downslope winds aid
warming temperatures.  Fortunately, the upper trough traversing the
Midwest will send a cold front south through region on Saturday on
gusty northerly winds.  Low and high temperatures both Saturday and
Sunday will still be above normal, but not in record territory.

A strong, southern stream upper trough/cutoff low will flatten the
upper ridge next Monday/Tuesday, with the flow aloft becoming
southwesterly ahead of it.  Just how windy and warm Monday and
Tuesday will be will depend on how far south the ua trough digs.
Deterministic models vary in the handling of this trough, with
Ensembles not providing much in the way of any clear solution, so
will likely cleave toward the middle of all available.  Another
southern stream upper trough could follow rapidly on the heels of
the first, with models at odds over it`s strength/amplitude, but it
does appear upper ridging will be prevented from making a comeback
through the rest of next week.  And, if you haven`t already guessed,
the forecast will remain dry through the end of the month due to
little to no chance of moisture return.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures will be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal today
across the area. Winds will be below 20 mph today except in the
Guadalupe Mountains where southwest winds of 25 to 30 mph are
expected this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will drop
to near 15 percent over most of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas,
and across the Guadalupe Mountains.  ERC-G values are still below
maximum levels in the Guadalupes, so at least elevated fire weather
conditions are expected.  Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for the
Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon. A cold front coming into the
area tonight/Saturday morning will result in improving conditions
for Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  49  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       85  49  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         83  51  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  85  53  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  50  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          83  45  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          80  44  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           83  49  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         83  49  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           85  49  73  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/67



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