Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260511
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A cold front currently
moving thru the Texas Panhandle will reach the NE terminals around
14Z, and others shortly thereafter, brigning another gusty
afternoon. This front is fairly weak, and return flow should
resume after sunset as sfc flow veers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Red Flag warning has expired.

FIRE WEATHER...
Update to remove the Red Flag highlights. More critical fire wx is
possible Wed across parts of the Trans Pecos and across most areas
on Thur.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 842 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Winds have diminished below High Wind Warning/Advisory this
evening for all but Guadalupe Mountains, where high winds will
continue much of tonight. Have cancelled all wind products except
for the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. Surface
pressure gradient will increase across the region tonight which
may keep winds elevated overnight. Could even see a few locations
briefly hit Wind Advisory but think this will be fairly
isolated... The Red Flag Warning also remains in effect for
Southeast New Mexico and south through the Davis Mountains this
evening and will be allowed to expire at 03Z. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
West winds are still sustained at 25-35kt, except FST is weaker,
and we expect there will be decrease especially after 01Z. Winds
at CNM may stay up a little longer though. Meanwhile a cold front
will turn winds to the W-NW after 06Z with winds increasing.
Around 15Z Wed winds will increase yet again as mixing commences,
not as strong as today though. INVOF GDP mtns light low flying
aircraft could experience severe turbulence.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the Rocky Mountains with the base of the
trough moving over southeast New Mexico and West Texas. At the
surface, the winds are strong and gusty out of the west. There are
currently High Wind Warnings in effect for the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Eddy County plains, and
the Upper Trans Pecos into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect
for Lea County, the western and northwestern Permian Basin, Marfa
Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend area through this evening.
The 850 to 700 NAM80 omega field is showing subsidence over these
areas by this evening. These strong west winds are also contributing
to fire weather conditions. See the fire weather discussion below.
Temperatures today are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal
with highs in the 90s across much of the area.

The upper trough will move over the central part of the country on
Wednesday. This will bring a cold front into the area on Wednesday
and will allow high temperatures to cool into the 70s across much of
the area. On Thursday, the base of another upper trough connected to
the previous upper trough will pass over the region. This will
contribute to another day of strong west winds across the area.
Temperatures will also warm back up to above normal across the area
on Thursday due to the west downslope winds. Another upper trough
behind the heels of the previous one will approach the region on
Friday. This upper trough will begin to move over the region on
Saturday which will bring a cold front and a chance of precipitation
into the area. Temperatures will cool to below normal on Saturday
across the northern half of the CWA. As the upper trough begins to
move away from the area on Sunday, the precipitation will come to an
end and the surface high will move closer to the CWA allowing high
temperatures on Sunday to be in the 60s and 70s across most of the
area. The upper pattern begins to diverge on Monday among the
models. In general, expect warming temperatures and dry conditions
for the extended forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to affect locations
within the Red Flag Warning through this afternoon, with cooling
temperatures through 26/03Z likely allowing RH to increase enough to
alleviate critical conditions.  Despite critical fire weather
conditions over the Permian Basin this afternoon, greenup will
prevent the inclusion of these areas in the RFW.  Recovery tonight
will be poor in most locations as west to northwest winds persist
overnight and keep low temperatures above normal.  A cold front will
move south into the forecast area during the day Wednesday. However,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, RHs of 10-15%, and high fire danger
could occur from the Marfa Plateau into the Big Bend region ahead of
the front, particularly in the 26/15Z to 26/21Z time frame.  Since
there are some timing differences with current progs, will forego
issuance of a Fire weather Watch for these areas at this time.

Cooler conditions will prevail areawide Wednesday afternoon, but
recovery Wednesday night will be poor along and west of a Lamesa to
Big Bend line.  Westerly flow aloft will strengthen again Thursday
which will promote temperatures warming well above normal and minimum
afternoon RHs of 5-10% areawide.  Since westerly 20 foot winds will
increase to at least 20-25 mph sustained along and north of
Interstate 10, critical fire weather conditions are looking likely.
On Friday, critical fire weather conditions could occur again, but
this will depend on whether another cold front dips south into the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  52  89  60 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       76  52  89  58 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         84  57  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  77  56  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  52  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  47  85  54 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          75  43  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  54  90  60 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  54  88  61 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           76  51  93  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44



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