Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 192316
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Showers and storms have been mostly confined to SE NM and the
Upper Trans Pecos this afternoon. Convection will dissipate over
the next couple of hours as all terminals return to VFR
conditions. The same locations will be favored for storms Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper-lvl ridge remains extended from New
Mexico east thru Texas and the Gulf Coast states out into the
Atlantic, although nearly bifurcated by an inverted trough in the
eastern Gulf.  To the west, the upper-lvl trough remains anchored
off the SoCal coast.  At the sfc, return flow has abundant moisture
backed up against the higher terrain and beyond, w/dewpoints in the
60s as far west as KELP.  Mesoanalysis shows the cap eroding
quickly, and hi-res models initiate convection nr the Davis
Mtns/Stockton Plateau as early as 18Z or so.  W/plenty of residual
boundaries knocking about from yesterday`s convection, at least an
isolated chance of convection will be possible areawide this
afternoon/evening.  To the far SW, an upper trough over the Gulf of
Ca is forecast to move NE into New mexico over the next 36 hours,
right into a rich theta-e ridge coincident w/a sfc trough running
from nr the Big Bend thru KELP.  Beginning 06Z Sun, ensembles
develop anomalously high PWAT over far West Texas, which should see
abundant rainfall over the next couple of days as the aforementioned
trough moves thru.  Higher model QPFs are still too far west to
warrant a FFA attm.  However, those anomalously high PWATs creep
further and further east over the next couple of days, so a watch
Sun/Mon cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, best chances for convection over the next few days will
indeed be over the western zones.  As the trough moves thru New
Mexico over the top of the ridge and phases into the jetstream
Tuesday, chances will increase further east into the FA.  The SoCal
trough moves inland Wednesday, further flattening the ridge.
Wednesday night, models still try to bring a cold front into the
area, for perhaps the best chance of rain in the extended.

Temps will remain just above-normal thru midweek.  Then, w/the
collapse of the ridge and associated thicknesses, temps should drop
below normal by Wed afternoon, and stay there thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  96  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       69  89  68  89 /  30  10  20  40
Dryden                         73  96  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 63  80  63  81 /  40  50  40  60
Hobbs                          67  88  67  87 /  10  10  10  20
Marfa                          62  87  62  87 /  10  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           71  94  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         71  94  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           70  95  71  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29


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