Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 290534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Wind gusts look to
diminish within the first few hours of the forecast period, with
S/SE winds expected to veer to the W/SW during the day Thursday.
After 30/00Z, winds will back to the SE at West Texas terminals
and become gusty, with gusts to around 20kt possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A significant warming trend underway today and tomorrow as 850 mb
temperatures increase over the region. A fairly weak dryline mixing
east through western areas this afternoon may become a focus for a
few thunderstorms through sunset mainly across southeast New Mexico
south through the Davis Mountains. Convection should quickly
diminish after sunset with decreasing instability. Not expecting
widespread severe weather however some storms could be strong,
producing gusty winds, hail and brief heavy rainfall. The dryline
will quickly move east through much of the area Thursday and W/SW
downsloping winds through the afternoon will aid in temperatures
soaring above 100 most locations.

A cold front is still expected to affect portions of the region
Friday and perhaps Saturday as well. Forecast models have backed off
on bringing the front in Friday morning and instead shows the front
attempting a run at far northern zones before stalling then a
second, stronger push late Friday night, likely aided by convection
along the front in the Texas Panhandle. That being said, have made
some adjustments to increase high temperatures Friday and
decrease temperatures across the northern half of the forecast
area Saturday. Confidence in northeast Permian Basin seeing any
precip with the front late Friday is decreasing but will go ahead
and leave mention of the possibility for now. The front is
forecast to lift back north Saturday with the return of southerly
winds at the surface.

Beyond Saturday, the upper pattern becomes somewhat unsettled as
several disturbances move over the region. Best chances will be each
afternoon/evening across the higher terrain region where upslope SE
winds and decent mid level moisture may contribute to thunderstorm
development. High temperatures look to generally be in the 90s mos t
areas Sunday through mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75 103  74  96 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       69 102  71  96 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                         74 101  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  74 105  74  97 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  95  68  90 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          68  99  69  94 /   0  10  10  20
Marfa                          61  97  65  92 /   0  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           74 103  74  96 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                         74 103  74  96 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                           70 105  74  99 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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