923
FXUS64 KMAF 212318
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

All of the most impactful weather remains well to the north of our
region over the next couple of days. We remain under modest
ridging with broad southwesterly flow aloft. Today one shortwave
trough lifts into the Great Lakes by this evening with another
coming out of the Central Rocky Mountains. This does little for
our weather today but these play more of a role tomorrow. Circling
back, today remains hot and partly cloudy. Temperatures generally
reside in the 90s this afternoon with 100s confined to the Rio
Grande Valley and even 110s in the Big Bend. Given the excessive
heat in the Big Bend, a Heat Advisory is in effect through this
afternoon and early evening for the area. Unfortunately, a
combination of some high clouds and the retreating dryline keeps
temperatures warm across much of the area. Much of the Permian
Basin and river valleys struggle to cool into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for those
lucky enough to the west and in the higher elevations.

Slightly more interesting weather arrives tomorrow as the second
trough moves across the Central Great Plains, aiding a cold
front`s southward trek into our neck of the woods. Initially this
front is likely to get hung up very near the I-20 corridor during
the afternoon. This should allow for slightly more refreshing 80s
and lower 90s behind this front with everyone else remaining hot.
Temperatures well into the 90s and 100s can be expected ahead of
the cold front and likely a touch warmer than today with the aide
of compressional warming. Given this expectation, will add a Heat
Advisory for Brewster County through the Davis and Chinati
Mountains for the afternoon and early evening. Outside of
temperatures, at least a slim but present threat of thunderstorms
will exist for far eastern extremities of the area where low-level
moisture holds on. Any thunderstorms that develop will quickly
move southeast and out of the region by tomorrow night. The cold
front will continue to sink south through the night and eventually
clears us to the south. This brings slightly milder temperatures
for all with lows primarily in the 60s for the lower elevations
and even 50s for the higher elevations by Thursday morning. This
relief is short-lived as you will find out though...

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Heading into Thursday, Wednesday`s "cold" front will be but a
memory for the northern tier of the area, with southerly return
flow across eastern areas by daybreak and downsloping westerly
flow across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. The dryline,
progged to be in the vicinity of the TX/NM state line south to the
Rio Grande Thursday morning will be quickly shunted eastward as
westerly surface flow expands areawide in response to the
development of a lee surface trough to the north of the region.
This downslope flow and compressional warming beneath
southwesterly flow aloft will see temperatures once again climb to
the middle to upper 90s for most, 100s along the river valleys,
and 80s and lower 90s in the mountains. A trough skirting from the
northern Rockies across the northern Plains Friday into Saturday
will be way too far north to impact our weather locally, other
than ensuring continued southwesterly flow aloft. Given little
change in antecedent conditions, similar conditions are expected
on Friday with some locations either a degree or two warmer or
cooler. The only change of note this weekend is a shortwave that
is progged to translate across the Four Corners Region, eastward
into the South Central Plains. This shortwave will do little more
than yield an uptick in wind speeds, allowing temperatures over
the weekend to edge just a little bit hotter. For now, it looks
like another round of Heat Advisory conditions are possible in the
Davis and Chinati Mountains, Chisos Basin, and in Lower Brewster
County along the Rio Grande both Saturday and Sunday, along with
an uptick in fire weather concerns on Saturday, especially across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico and
the Upper Trans Pecos.

Early next week, another trough is progged to move across the
northern tier of the CONUS, resulting in quasi-zonal flow over
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Highs Monday will be similar
to prior days, albeit a couple degrees cooler, still topping out
in the 90s for most, with 100s through the river valleys, and
continued Heat Advisory conditions possible. Beyond Monday,
cluster analyses and deterministic guidance are in fairly good
agreement that the aforementioned trough will deepen once it
reaches the Upper Midwest, resulting in an amplification of the
pattern with ridging developing to the west in response to the
deepening trough to the east. But, until then, hot and dry will
continue to be the rule, with the benefits of recent rainfall
becoming less and less pronounced each day.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Southwest winds will diminish overnight and become southeasterly
before a cold front brings northwest winds 12-18Z. VFR conditions
will remain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue the
next 7 days, with little to no chance of rain for most of the
region. The only exception to this will be across far eastern
areas from roughly Snyder to Sanderson on Wednesday afternoon and
evening, where isolated thunderstorms capable of producing
lightning strikes and erratic gusty winds are possible.
Fortunately, lightning strikes will generally remain out of range
of areas west of the Pecos that have been mostly dry for the past
few months, keeping concern for lightning starts low. However,
greenup has largely been confined along and east of the Pecos, and
the continued hot weather and drying trend will see widespread
RHs under 5 percent west of the Pecos River Wednesday, expanding
areawide through this weekend. Fortunately, winds to the west will
remain around 15 mph each afternoon, somewhat limiting fire
weather concerns, except in the complex terrain of the Guadalupe
Mountains where local enhancements to wind speeds can be expected.
The only day that could see stronger winds looks to be Saturday
as a shortwave passes to the north of the area, but until then,
elevated and near critical conditions can be expected, with the
possibility for localized critical conditions where terrain
enhancements to winds/drying are felt, especially above 5000 feet.
Conditions will be closely monitored with Fire Danger Statements
and/or Red Flag Warnings issued as needed.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  83  66  99 /  10  20  10   0
Carlsbad                 62  92  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75 103  74 104 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            69 101  64 100 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  86  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    61  87  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    58  94  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     70  92  64  97 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                   71  92  65  97 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                     67  96  62  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Central
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster
     County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...10