Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 061101
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will likely affect all terminals through 06/15Z,
although for a more brief period of time at KCNM, KPEQ and KFST.
These lower ceilings will be accompanied by MVFR visibility in fog
during this time.  Expect low clouds to lift between 06/13Z west to
06/15Z east with VFR conditions thereafter.  Will not include any
thunderstorm chances at any terminals as probabilities are too low
for any given site.  Expect MVFR, if not IFR, ceilings to develop
again after 07/06Z.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT Wed May 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the western half of the conus with
westerly to southwesterly flow over the CWA.  Upper lift will
increase ahead of this trough today as indicated by the NAM80 500
omega values over the Permian Basin.  A dryline will be present
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos today.  CAPE values
according to the NAM12 will be 2000 to 3000+ J/Kg along and east of
the dryline this afternoon.  Bulk shear vectors will be good with
the best values being across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level lapse
rates will be marginal with the highest values across the Lower
Trans Pecos.  Given these conditions, storms may develop beginning
this afternoon along and east of the dryline with some storms
possibly becoming severe.  The main threats with these storms will
be locally heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds.  Temperatures
today are expected to be near normal with many places across the
area in the mid 80s.

The dryline is expected to progress further eastward Thursday
afternoon to the Western Low Rolling Plains, so storm chances will
shift eastward as well.  Due to southwest surface winds across most
of the area, temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up
slightly from the previous day.  Friday is expected to be very
similar to Thursday with the dryline across the far eastern CWA.
The previously mentioned upper trough will move over New Mexico on
Saturday with thunderstorms possible across the Permian Basin and
the Lower Trans Pecos.  Storm chances will remain across these same
areas on Sunday as the upper trough continues to move over the
region.  A cold front associated with this trough is expected to
move into the CWA on Monday and showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible along this front.  Temperatures are only expected to
cool into the mid to upper 70s behind this front.  The area will
once again be under southwest flow aloft on Tuesday with shortwaves
moving over the area.  Storms will remain possible across a portion
of the CWA through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  65  86  62  /  20  20  20  30
BIG SPRING TX              84  67  86  65  /  20  30  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                86  54  84  53  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  68  90  69  /  20  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  62  90  62  /  20  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  78  54  /   0  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  58  82  55  /   0  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   83  45  83  46  /   0  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  67  88  64  /  20  20  20  40
ODESSA TX                  84  67  88  64  /  20  20  20  30
WINK TX                    87  61  90  59  /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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