Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 301748
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1248 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
18Z TAF issuance.
The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is the potential
for low cigs and TSRA affecting some terminals Sunday morning. VFR
conditions will prevail areawide through today with fairly light
winds and mostly clear skies in place. A cold front is expected
early Sunday morning with gusty NE winds at all terminals by mid
morning. Will likely see low cigs fill in behind the front along
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence in MVFR
development is highest at HOB, INK and MAF but later shifts will
need to add mention at other terminals if confidence increases.
Also, did not include mention of rain/thunder activity potential in
the TAF attm for Sunday morning, however this may need to be added
in a subsequent issuance.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
A weakening upper level low pressure system is forecast to move
eastward through tonight along the Nebraska, Kansas border. Behind
this system a weak cold front across the northern Permian Basin
and eastern New Mexico Plains will settle south towards the Pecos
River this morning and then push back east toward the northeast
Permian basin this afternoon due to heating and mixing. Winds will
be much lighter today with near normal temperatures under partly
to mostly sunny skies.
For tonight the cold front will intensify and make a renewed
surge to the south toward the Pecos River. In the meantime
the next southern stream upper level low pressure system will
settle into Arizona by 12z Sunday Morning. Isentropic lift
ahead of the approaching upper level system will begin tonight
with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along and
north of the boundary.
For Sunday through Monday the chance for showers and thunderstorms
will increase areawide as the cold front continues to sink toward
Mexico with isentropic lift above the cold front and large scale
lift associated with the upper jet increase. Unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected in this pattern across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico in the cooler air with widespread clouds and
Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
slowly builds over the forecast area from the west. There could
be isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out into the forecast.
Temperatures are expected to warm but remain below normal Monday
through Wednesday and then climb to near normal values by next
Thursday and Friday.
The next Pacific system could bring the next chance for
precipitation to west Texas by next weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 81 52 66 49 / 0 10 30 50
Carlsbad 82 50 61 47 / 10 10 30 20
Dryden 92 63 83 59 / 0 10 30 60
Fort Stockton 87 57 76 51 / 0 10 30 40
Guadalupe Pass 76 47 59 41 / 0 0 20 20
Hobbs 78 47 57 45 / 0 10 30 30
Marfa 78 42 75 42 / 10 0 20 30
Midland Intl Airport 84 54 67 50 / 0 10 40 40
Odessa 84 55 67 50 / 0 10 40 40
Wink 88 55 69 51 / 0 10 30 40