Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
239 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Temperatures this afternoon continue their gradual warm up as
southerly return flow continues and partly cloudy skies allow for
filtered sunshine. Most locations reach the mid to upper 60s with
the river valleys pushing into the 70s, slightly below normal for
this time of year. No rain is expected today as we await the
passage of our next trough. Temperatures tonight fall back into
the 40s as moisture slowly builds.

Wednesday sees the long waited Southwest upper-low, now open
trough, moving into the southern Great Plains. A dryline takes
shape during the afternoon across the far eastern portions of the
area. Most locations can expect filtered sun and temperatures
finally back to near and even slightly above normal with
widespread 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are possible by the
middle to late afternoon along and east of the dryline. The best
chance of any precipitation appears to be closest to the trough
across the northeastern Permian Basin and around the higher
elevations of the Stockton Plateau. Other areas may remain capped
as low-level moisture is lacking but isolated activity is
possible. Any activity quickly pushes east tomorrow night. Partly
cloudy skies keep overnight temperatures a touch warmer with upper
40s and lower 50s anticipated for most. This marks the end of our
rainy weather pattern for now.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

The upper low that has been stationary over the Desert Southwest
the past week finally ejects east into Texas on Thursday. A
surface low pressure system then forms over North Texas and moves
east along the Red River pushing a cold front south into the CWA.
The cold front will be "cold" in name only, since the supporting
upper low will be coming from the southern U.S., it will not have
access to any cold Canadian air and its presence will be noted
mainly with a northerly wind shift. A modest ridge building in
behind the departing low will help bring in a delayed push of
cooler air on Saturday dropping highs a few degrees for the
weekend and keeping temperatures near normal. The next upper
trough moves into the western U.S. reaching the Four Corners
region on Monday. The trough causes a dryline to sharpen up in the
Permian Basin on Sunday moving east on Monday. Currently it
appears that most of the rainfall will be east of the area though
recent rains may provide enough lingering moisture to hold the
dryline farther west than models are currently showing. That is
still out at the end of the extended period and there is plenty of
time to get a better idea in the days ahead.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Winds remain generally light and southeasterly at all terminals
with broken mid to high level clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  43  74  47 /   0   0  30  20
Carlsbad                 68  42  73  44 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                   66  44  77  52 /  10   0  30  30
Fort Stockton            71  46  78  52 /  10   0  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           63  44  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    66  39  72  42 /   0   0  20  10
Marfa                    66  38  70  39 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     66  43  74  47 /   0   0  20  10
Odessa                   66  44  74  47 /   0   0  20  10
Wink                     69  44  76  46 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...91


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