Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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049
ACUS11 KWNS 222308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222307
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-230100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0607 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Areas affected...Eastern PA...southern NY...northern NJ

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464...

Valid 222307Z - 230100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464
continues.

SUMMARY...A few storms may increase in intensity as they progress
across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. Damaging winds, a
brief/weak tornado, and marginal hail are all possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows continued pressure falls across
eastern PA, ahead of the main line of storms. In addition, this
corridor currently is near the instability axis, with MLCAPE around
1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear remains favorable for long-lived severe
storms, roughly 45-50 kt and at a large angle to the front. 0-1 km
SRH also remains favorable for supercells and/or a brief tornado at
over 100 M2/s2.

Recent radar trends have shown some increase in cells ahead of the
line, and if this trend persists, some of these cells may turn right
and become supercells, with threat of a brief tornado, hail, and
damaging wind.

..Jewell.. 08/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39707788 41167688 42217577 42497506 42557430 42417350
            42147314 41327320 40557397 39947474 39707558 39707788




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