Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS11 KWNS 302305
SPC MCD 302305
Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio
Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...
Valid 302305Z - 310000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.
SUMMARY...An occasional damaging-wind risk will exist across
portions of southern/central Indiana over the next couple of hours
before diminishing this evening. A low-end tornado threat may also
persist in the near term close to the warm front across central
Indiana and Ohio.
DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms continues east across
central/southern Indiana this evening, aided by downstream
propagation within a relatively dry/well-mixed low-level
environment. This thermodynamic profile, combined with ample
uni-directional southwesterly flow, will maintain some damaging-wind
risk with small bowing segments through the early/mid evening hours.
However, due to the dry near-surface profile, diabatic cooling
should quickly render a stabilizing boundary layer, reducing the
threat for gusty/damaging winds.
Farther northeast, a very narrow corridor exists for low-end tornado
potential at the warm front. Here, backed surface flow yields more
notable veering with height, which may briefly yield low-level
mesocyclones and a quick uptick in tornadic potential. However,
similar to the damaging-wind risk, this threat should diminish
further over the next few hours.
Lastly, a gradual increase in large-scale ascent over Ohio has
yielded a few strong/briefly severe cells rooted above the surface.
Despite relatively narrow buoyancy profiles, strong effective shear
may continue to be sufficient for isolated instances of marginally
severe hail this evening. However, due to the low-end nature of the
threat, watch issuance is not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38608726 40558623 41058419 40718117 40488083 39728154
39368429 38738600 38608726