Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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434
ACUS11 KWNS 212233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212233
TXZ000-NMZ000-220030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN NM AND FAR WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212233Z - 220030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 22Z...THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICT AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN NM...WITH ONE DOMINANT CELL /E OF ONM/ DISPLAYING
SOME SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. INDEED...KABX DATA AROUND 2156Z
SUGGESTED A PARTICULARLY ROBUST HAIL CORE...WITH A CLEAR TBSS AND
SIDELOBE CONTAMINATION PRESENT IN DUAL-POL FIELDS. THESE CELLS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM A
NEWD-EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO/SRN AZ. WHILE A
POLAR AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMITED THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...CLEARING
ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR WRN TX HAS PROMOTED A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. AS
THIS CORRIDOR IS ON THE EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO THE WEST...MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG HAVE
MATERIALIZED...WITH THE WIDEST ZONE OF A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT LIKELY EXISTING OVER FAR S-CNTRL NM/FAR WRN TX.
CONSIDERING THE ARRIVAL OF THE EJECTING IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE
WELL-TIMED WITH PEAK INSOLATION...THIS AREA MAY OFFER THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR LONGER-LASTING STRONG CONVECTION.

MOREOVER...FAVORABLE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM /EVIDENCED
BY THE LATEST KEPZ VWP/ SUGGESTS UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...FURTHERING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE EARLY THIS EVENING.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31450457 30690417 30480434 30450487 30730517 31670638
            31750669 31780804 31830828 33190841 34490874 34740840
            34880765 34720702 33790613 32700521 31450457




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