Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020948
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-021215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IA...FAR NWRN MO...FAR ERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020948Z - 021215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD/SEWD THROUGH THE
EARLY-MORNING HOURS...POSING A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL. WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND AREA PLANAR-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF
1-1.5-KM FLOW FROM VWPS IMPLY A DEARTH OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AND VICINITY. NEVERTHELESS...SLIGHT VEERING OF THE
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL IMPLIED BY THE OAX VWP IS SIGNALING VERY
MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA. THIS IS PROBABLY THE CAUSE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS
EVOLVING FROM PARTS OF FAR ERN NEB TO W-CNTRL IA. WITH LARGE-SCALE
VERTICAL MOTION BEING MOSTLY NEUTRAL BASED ON MOISTURE-CHANNEL
IMAGERY...CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BREEDING
UPSCALE GROWTH AND A SVR-WIND RISK IS VERY LOW IN THE NOCTURNALLY
STABILIZED PBL. REGARDLESS...THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP SHEAR
MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED SVR HAIL GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY FOR PARCELS
ROOTED ABOVE THE STABLE PBL. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
ESEWD/SEWD AIDED BY 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE
EARLY-MORNING HOURS.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41349599 42579452 42239298 41179293 40389417 40509571
            41349599



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