Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221823
TXZ000-NMZ000-222000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0811
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Areas affected...Eastern NM...parts of West TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221823Z - 222000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
NM into parts of west TX this afternoon.  Hail and gusty winds are
the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Early-afternoon water vapor imagery depicts a
short-wave trough extending from southern CO into east-central AZ,
digging southeast in line with short-range model guidance.
Large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be overspreading eastern
NM coincident with low cloud dissipation across the southern High
Plains of NM.  Over the last hour or so, convection has developed
off the higher terrain and isolated thunderstorms are now slowly
maturing from Lincoln to San Miguel counties.  With low-level lapse
rates steepening immediately downstream, environmental shear is more
than adequate for sustaining this activity as it propagates
southeast.  Large hail and gusty winds are the primary threats.

..Darrow/Weiss.. 05/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32030412 33190517 35390522 35230405 32750269 32030412



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