Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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747 ACUS11 KWNS 081947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081946 TXZ000-OKZ000-082215- Mesoscale Discussion 0705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...parts of northern into central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 081946Z - 082215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms capable of very large hail and a tornado or two are expected over the next several hours from parts of central into northeast Texas. DISCUSSION...Deeper convection is beginning to form along the dryline near San Saba and Mills Counties, with increasing Cu depth extending northeastward along the dryline. A very moist and extremely unstable air mass resides east of the dryline, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. Effective deep-layer shear up to 50 kt with a large cross component to the boundary will favor supercell storm mode, with very large hail expected. A few tornadoes may occur as well, perhaps brief but locally intense, given extreme instability and sufficient low-level shear. An expansive, uncapped warm sector suggests cells may remain severe for a long duration. ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31569513 30709679 30209871 30439902 31019868 31289838 31949771 32819719 33669681 33799589 33869520 33629455 33469435 32449456 31569513