Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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394
ACUS11 KWNS 270215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270214
TXZ000-270315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N-CNTRL TX...TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217...219...

VALID 270214Z - 270315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
217...219...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS WW 219...ALTHOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL
AND/OR A TORNADO REMAINS. DIMINISHING TRENDS ACROSS WW 217 SUGGEST
THE SVR THREAT ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTY IS NOW LOW.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF WW 217.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE LONE SUPERCELL MOVING FROM EDWARDS COUNTY INTO
REAL COUNTY. THIS STORM HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM NOTED.

CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW 219 APPEARS TO
BE UNDERGOING A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS /LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SUPERCELL THAT WAS
RECENTLY OVERTAKEN BY THE CLUSTER/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT. THE LINEAR TRANSITION OF THIS SYSTEM
COUPLED WITH THE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME WEAKENING OF THIS STORM CLUSTER OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE SOME NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WATCH EWD A BIT IF TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH OF A WEAKENING TREND AS
ANTICIPATED. CURRENT STORM MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ENEWD AT 30 TO
35 KT...WHICH WOULD TAKE IT TO THE EDGE OF WW 219 AROUND 0330Z.

..MOSIER.. 05/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32100120 33330059 33749976 33949811 33279730 30709815
            29309971 29940169 32100120




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