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000
ACUS11 KWNS 102314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102313
NYZ000-PAZ000-110515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Areas affected...Western NY AND North Central PA

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 102313Z - 110515Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to continue to develop across
parts of the central Appalachian Mountains this evening. Ice
accumulations of around a third of an inch per hour will likely
occur in the lower elevations of western New York and north central
Pennsylvania over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar shows a band of moderate rainfall
located from the western part of Lake Ontario extending southward
into northwest Pennsylvania. Ahead of this band, surface
temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 20s F across much of
the area from south of Rochester NY to State College, Pennsylvania.
Model forecasts suggest that the band of rainfall will continue to
move eastward into the colder air at the surface. Although southerly
flow will result in some warming of the airmass, sub-freezing air
will remain in the narrow valleys of the Appalachian Mountains in
western New York and north central Pennsylvania. This will result in
the development of freezing rain. The HRRR suggests that the band of
precipitation will move into the northwestern part of the MCD area
over the next half hour with freezing rain spreading into the
central and southeastern part of the MCD area after 01z. Freezing
rainfall rates are expected to be around a third of an inch per hour
within the heavier parts of the rain band.

..Broyles/Grams.. 01/10/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40667711 41527655 43157597 43627662 43757775 43577853
            43017885 42057888 41247888 40617847 40487777 40667711




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