Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 301840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301840
MEZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0845
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301840Z - 302015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z
WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z...AND WHILE A WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...ONE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 MI
W OF CAR AT 1830Z...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN
ME. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES WARM
TO NEAR 80 IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...AND BY LATE
AFTN MLCAPE WILL AVERAGE 500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG. STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL RESULT IN AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
TSTMS...THOUGH IN THE SHORT TERM STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED. BEYOND 20Z...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO GREATER
COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
SVR TSTM COVERAGE...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   47406916 47246906 47176891 47296851 47326822 47066783
            46006778 45186933 45087027 45327059 45677045 45937027
            46197024 46387005 46726996 47406916



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