Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 302032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302032
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WYOMING...SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302032Z - 302300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH AN AXIS OF 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDING NWWD INTO
EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING /PER MESONALYSIS/.  CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO
INITIATE OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS...LARAMIE MOUNTAINS...AND BLACK
HILLS TO THIS POINT LIKELY OWING TO MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA.  NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.  GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT /RESULTING IN 30-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/...THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  EVENTUALLY...THE STORMS MAY UNDERGO
UPSCALE GROWTH AS THE LLJ INCREASES INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..JIRAK/KERR.. 07/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43710518 44010500 44410470 44750437 45020365 44590255
            44130167 43740110 43260085 42660127 42260214 42050266
            41740351 41660413 41700476 41940512 42350543 43710518



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