Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 240017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240016
NEZ000-240115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240016Z - 240115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND WILL ACCOMPANY A SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING SSEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL
NEB IN THE SHORT-TERM.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL...BUT ORGANIZED
AND INTENSE...CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF BROKEN BOW MOVING
SSEWD IN PROXIMITY TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NNW/SSE
THROUGH CNTRL NEB. AS A SFC WIND-SHIFT AXIS ACCOMPANYING THE ONGOING
CONVECTION CONTINUES SHIFTING SWD...AND RELATED ASCENT MAY MAINTAIN
THE RISK FOR ROBUST CONVECTION SSEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NEB
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS IS WHERE MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL
REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F. THE 00Z LBF RAOB
INDICATES AROUND 30-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE
RISK FOR INTENSE MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET OWING TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40509991 41070028 41379978 40959927 40459916 40509991



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