Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 042018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042018
FLZ000-042245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FL KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042018Z - 042245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WRN FL KEYS BY 22Z. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED ABOUT
75 STATUTE MILES WEST OF KEY WEST MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. A FEW
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE LINE
INCLUDING A ROTATING COMMA HEAD ON THE NRN END AND TRAILING BOWING
SEGMENT. UNLIKE FARTHER NORTH OVER THE FL PENINSULA...THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE KEYS HAS NOT BEEN OVERTURNED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MOREOVER...VWP DATA SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WINDS ACCOMPANYING A
PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. LATEST KEY WEST VWP INDICATE 45 KT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS STORMS COULD MAINTAIN SOME
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AS THEY CONTINUE EWD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WRN
FL KEYS THIS EVENING.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...

LAT...LON   24848120 24948081 24798073 24668092 24478164 24548197
            24738171 24848120




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