Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 280435
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT IS IN GOOD SHAPE...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLIP THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF A BIT...BUT LOWS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION PROBABLY WON`T FALL BELOW 75 DEGREES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION OCCURRING MAINLY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDSOUTH ATTM.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
105 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AND 100-105
DEGREES OVER THE EAST HALF.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
JUDGING BY RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR. ANOTHER VERY WARM
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S BY MORNING. A 594 DM UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY AND BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NE
OF THE MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S...WILL EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE MID SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY POOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THE VERY LEAST HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND A EXCESSIVE HEAT WARMING MAY BE NEEDED AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 110 DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISPLAY VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 90 THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. TEMPS WILL START
TO CLIMB DURING THE WEEKEND BUT HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
REASONABLE.

SJM

$$

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AND PRODUCE MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS AT
MKL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     YALOBUSHA.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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