Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 291144 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
644 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016
Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016/
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a cold front
from East Tennessee back through Central Mississippi and Northern
Louisiana. Meanwhile, Water Vapor Satellite trends place an upper
level low centered near Indianapolis. Clear skies prevail early
this morning across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 3 am
CDT ranging from the middle 40s to lower 50s north of I-40, and
50s to around 60 degrees south.
An upper level low over Central Indiana will gradually move south
towards Central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee on Friday.
Shortwaves rotating around this upper level low will have the
potential to produce isolated to scattered rain showers along with
partly sunny to cloudy skies across portions of the forecast
area, especially across Northwest Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. Highs Today will range from the middle 60s near the
Tennessee River and 70s across the remainder of the forecast area.
Highs on Friday will be similar to Today with temperatures
slightly higher near the Tennessee River.
Models indicate this upper level low will gradually wobble back
north towards Southern Lake Michigan by Sunday as an upper level
ridge builds into the Mississippi Valley. This will result in
decreased rain chances across the Mid South this weekend along
with a gradual moderation of temperatures by early next week. Long
term models indicate a positively tilted upper level trough will
rotate through the Mississippi Valley by late next week. An
accompanying occluding cold front will move through the region
during this period. Some timing and convective coverage questions
will remain with this system as better forcing is expected to be
well upstream of the Mid-South.
MVFR deck will drop southeast out of the Ohio Valley through late
morning, mainly affecting MKL. Otherwise, VFR over most of the
Midsouth terminals today, with main concern wind gusts during the
North winds will diminish considerably by evening. Both GFS LAMP
and NAM Bufr soundings show a potential for saturation below FL010
overnight, mainly northeast of JBR-MEM-TUP line, as midlevel deck
clears and underlying layers cool.