Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 202031
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z CYCLE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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