Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 201721 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE STILL SHOWING UP BUT THEY HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE LAST HOUR. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. H2O
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN MIDSOUTH. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN WI TO
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TN
AHEAD THIS FRONT WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR
WATER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT MOSTLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WARMING UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING TAKING THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO
OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND NO RAIN. SOME SPOTS MAY HIT THE 80
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

OTHER THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG AT MKL NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL AT MIDSOUTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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