Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 211128
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 60
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER BACK
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...LOWER HUMIDITIES...AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO QUICKLY RETURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AND DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND DEGREE OF RIDGING. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE MUCH MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND PLAN TO KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY AND WARM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CUT OFF ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHOULD
HELP TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THAT REASON HAVE PLACED TEMPO`S IN THE TAFS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP WHERE LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. HAVE
INTRODUCED AN MVFR LAYER LATE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN
NEAR 22/12Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS
VEERING MORE WESTERLY LATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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