Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 262015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
315 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A relatively persistent forecast that can be summed up: warm and
dry. Elevated wildfire danger will remain the primary concern.

Midafternoon GOES water vapor imagery showed a well-defined
shortwave trof over the Ozark Plateau. Extensive mid and high
cloudiness was noted on GOES visible imagery in advance of the this
feature. An associated linear MCS over the central plains early
this morning weakened into a broken line of showers entering
northwest AR at midafternoon. Today`s 12Z LZK sounding was very
dry below 400mb, suggesting convection was weakening as it
encountered drier air. Expect some midlevel moistening with the
approach of the shortwave and associated precip evaporation. By
late evening into the early overnight, NAM Bufr soundings show
sufficient sub-cloud layer RH for some of the rain to make it to
the ground. Where rain occurs, it should be light and likely
non-measurable in places.

The aforementioned shortwave exits to the east on Thursday,
leaving the Midsouth under light northwest flow aloft. An upper
level height ridge over Texas will flatten and expand eastward
into the lower MS River valley and southeast U.S. through the
weekend. Temperatures will continue well above average, with
southerly breezes and daytime highs in the 80s for most of the

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF models amplify the upper level ridge over
the MS River valley early next week, in advance of height falls
over the Rocky Mountains. GFS and ECMWF begin to differ on timing
of these height falls early on, but both depict the energy passing
far enough to the north to have little effect on the upper level
pattern over the Midsouth. By midweek, both models depict 588dm
500mb heights over the Midsouth, that moderate only slightly by
late next week. In other words, continued warm and dry for the
first several days of November.



18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period.
Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over
northeast Arkansas tonight but are not expected to reach the KJBR
area. Winds will be mainly from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots
this afternoon before diminishing to around 5 knots tonight.




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