Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 230537
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES TO
THE LOWER 60S. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS ACTIVITY MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO
REMOVE EVENING WORDING WITH FEW CHANGES NEEDED.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH. BY 5 PM...SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA AND THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A POTENT UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD INTO MIDSOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI NEAR CLARKSDALE AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR
HELENA-WEST HELENA SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE CLOUDY AND RAINY MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF. CAN/T RULE OUT SCATTERED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SHOWERS BUT CHANCES OF ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW THAN A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO.

THE UPPER TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY 00Z (6 PM) SUNDAY
EVENING CUTTING OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
DURING THE EVENING WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS.

MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THE COLD AIR FOR THANKSGIVING.
NOW BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THANKSGIVING AND
STALLING THE FRONT OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH BUT COULD BRING RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS TO MAKE SURE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS
TREND. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT THEN TO IFR
LEVELS AS STEADY RAIN BEGINS TOWARD MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT MEM...MKL AND ESPECIALLY TUP TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT THESE 3 STATIONS
AND KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TO SEE IF PREVAILING THUNDER IS NEEDED
TOMORROW. ONCE RAIN BEGINS...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STEADY
TOMORROW...MVFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW...POSSIBLE LOWERING TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILL BRING PREVAILING RAIN TO AN END
AFTER SUNSET...BUT NOT COMFORTABLE WITH AGGRESSIVELY IMPROVING
CIGS AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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