Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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654
FXUS64 KMEG 060215
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
815 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST EVENING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE OZARKS AND
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. IN ADDITION
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOSE DIVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. FROM THIS
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WORDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AND LOWERED EVENING TEMPERATURES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE COLDER WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION AS A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UNDER
A REGIME ANALOGOUS TO THAT OF TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-50S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS VERY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SNOW PROSPECTS CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SIMPLY LOOK TOO WARM WHEN COMPARED TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS COULD CHANGE THROUGH
TIME BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR PRECIP TO PROGRESS THROUGH MORE
QUICKLY.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH LARGER THAN
NORMAL SPREAD WHICH IS SHOWN WELL IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OPTED FOR
A BLEND OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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