Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261935
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
235 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Typical spring day over the Midsouth with a mix of clouds and
sun...comfortable humidities and light breezes. Temperatures this
hour ranged from the mid 60s in the north...to the mid 70s south.

For tonight through tomorrow...next upper level low in a series
over the next week will slide east along the KS/OK border this
period. This feature will lift a warm front through the Midsouth
tonight with short term models showing a few showers convecting on
the boundary after midnight...so introduced a slight chance for
rain a bit further east before 27/12z. Off to the west MCS
expected to form later this afternoon in Oklahoma/North Texas will
follow the low into the Ozarks tonight...and all models show
activity weakening before reaching the Midsouth. Thus the
remaining mid and upper level moisture may only temporarily
damper recovery tomorrow...especially to points south of Interstate
forty. To the north more prolonged clouds and potential convection
is anticipated. Large hail is the greatest threat for any
afternoon/evening developing storms as 7.0C+ lapse rates
overspread the region. Short term model solutions are depicting
one line forming in afternoon over the eastern counties linked to
the shortwave/upper low energy...while a second line oriented more
northeast to southwest forms on the cold front across the western
counties a few hours later behind the shortwave axis. So a few
folks east of the Mississippi River may see more than one severe
storm. Portions of the region could be elevated to an Enhanced
risk. Temperatures will climb back into the 70s for highs with
lows both tonight and early Tuesday in the 50s and 60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the Midsouth will dry back out this period
with temperatures remaining above normal. The southern branch of
the PFJ remains active with next upper low moving into the Plains
Wednesday. Cloud cover and rain chances will ramp up through the
night as a new warm front lifts northeast out of the ARKLATEX.

Thursday and Friday...the aforementioned 500mb low will slowly
track across southern Missouri as the surface low becomes vertical
stacked. Still in question is recovering from convection
Wednesday night and cloud cover holding back instability. Models
indicate pockets of 1000 j/kg of CAPE reaching into the southern
counties by afternoon with backed winds...so a few rotating storms
may result producing an isolated tornado threat. The strongest
activity will exit to the east Thursday night...leaving mostly
cloudy skies and a few wrap around showers in the east for Friday
as the upper level moves up the Ohio River. Highs will lower from
the 70s Thursday to mainly 60s Friday with light northerly winds.

Next weekend...Saturday looks to be dry overall..with the last in
a series of weekly upper level lows bringing rain back on Sunday.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the early morning hours of
Monday at all terminals. Southwest winds around 10 kts will
gradually diminish early this evening.

A decaying squall line will move into eastern Arkansas just prior
to sunrise and impact KJBR with MVFR cigs/vsbys along with showers
and thunderstorms. This line should continue to fall apart as it
approaches the Mississippi River after sunrise. Tempo showers have
been added to KMEM and KMKL along with MVFR cigs for Monday
morning. Overall confidence on coverage remains lower than
preferred. South winds will increase later Monday morning with a
possible break in activity. KTUP should remain dry through the
period.

Additional development of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible later Monday afternoon but will be dependent upon how
much the atmosphere can recover and destabilize after the morning
activity. This will be better resolved in later forecasts.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$


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