Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 181733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1006 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST TENNESSEE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS TO INCLUDE ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LIKE
LAST NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CLOSER
TO HOME A SECOND WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAD FORMED OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THEN THIS TIME
FRAME LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROLE IN POPS
TODAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT SETUP.
LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VOID AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
MENTIONED CONVECTION LINES RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS. FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E VALUES STAY OVER THE OZARKS AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODELS
TO WARM FOR YESTERDAYS HIGHS HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TODAY. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. FOR
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH KEEPING LOWS
IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN...WHILE LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS
PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER DESPITE
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ONE REASON MAY BE THAT ENERGY FROM ODILE WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MAY BE THE
ENERGY WITH THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THIS
PERIOD WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF SUN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK 925MB BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST TN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MKL AREA BY 1730-18Z. KEPT TEMPO FOR
-TSRA IN AT MKL TIL 19Z. AFT 19Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TODAY WILL BE OVR MEM/TUP TERMINALS HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPARSE...SO JUST KEPT THE VCTS IN FOR BOTH TERMINALS THRU 23-00Z.
AFTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF ALL TAFS BEYOND 00Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED TIMES TO
9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z VFR
EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL LOCATIONS
AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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