Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 010431
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1131 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1035 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to increase pops across far northeast Arkansas overnight.

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave in northwest flow aloft will continue to progress
across the middle Mississippi Valley overnight. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed over Missouri this evening and will
push into northwest portions of the forecast area overnight. Any
convection should be in the weakening phase as it progresses
further southeast into a more stable and dry airmass aloft. So
expect much if not all of the convection to diminish prior to
reaching the Interstate 40 corridor. Low temperatures will be held
higher than last night in response to slow low level moistening
and increased cloud cover.

Updated zones and grids have been sent this evening.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a weak cold
front stretching from southeast Kansas through northwest Missouri.
Water Vapor satellite trends show a mid level shortwave trough
over Missouri with an upper level trough over the Upper Midwest.
Regional WSR-88D radar trends indicate scattered showers and
thunderstorms over southeast Missouri and a portion of north
central Arkansas. Visible satellite indicates sunny skies over
much of the forecast area with the exception of northeast Arkansas
where convection is occurring. As of 3 pm CDT, temperatures
across the Mid- South are in the middle 80s to lower 90s at most
locations.

Short term models indicate a weak surface front over Missouri
will gradually drift southeast into the Mid-South late tonight
into Friday. Some of the upstream isolated/scattered showers and
thunderstorms may drift into areas near the MO/AR/KY border
tonight. Otherwise, most areas are anticipated to remain mainly
rain free tonight. Overall shear is anticipated to be weak on
Friday with the best potential for shower/thunderstorm development
OCCURING during the afternoon hours during peak daytime heating.

This surface boundary will lift back north over the upcoming
holiday weekend with convective chances being isolated at best.
Models indicate mid-level heights will begin to weaken towards
Sunday night/Monday allowing for increased convective development
through Tuesday. Long term models indicate an upper level ridge
axis over the Southern Plains will begin to build across the Lower
Mississippi Valley late next week, resulting in hot temperatures
returning towards the end of the period.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF Period. Winds will
remain light and variable overnight. A surface front associated
with a disturbance aloft will make its way through the Mid-South
on tomorrow. Isolated showers and storms are possible as the front
progresses. There`s still not enough confidence in significant
coverage yet to introduce vicinity or prevailing groups to the
TAFs. Winds will become northerly behind the front tomorrow.

JPM3

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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