Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 021729
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1129 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1007 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/

Skies are sunny across the forecast area this morning with
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Clouds are
slowly creeping toward the region from the southwest but this
afternoon should remain mostly sunny for much of the forecast
area. Will update forecast to remove morning wording with no big
changes needed.

ARS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

High pressure will move east today but not before providing
another dry and mild weather day. Moisture will begin to slowly
increase later tonight in advance of an upper level low pressure
system over the southwest U.S. and a northern stream shortwave
pushing southeast out of western Canada. Isentropic ascent over top
of the retreating high pressure system will result in increasing
clouds and light rainfall mainly after midnight across the Delta
counties south and west of Memphis. The dry lower level airmass
across the remainder of the region should moisten sufficiently by
later Saturday to allow light rain to fall across much of the
region. The region should remain north of a frontal boundary
positioned along the Gulf Coast through the first part of the
weekend. Northeast low level flow combined with cloud cover and
light rain should help to keep temperatures below normal on
Saturday.

As the northern stream shortwave advances across the region on
Sunday...it will help to push a weak cold front across the area.
A drier airmass will temporarily build into northern sections of
the Mid South later Sunday helping to bring an end to rainfall.
Across southern sections...enough moisture and lift over the front
to our south will keep light rain chances in the forecast for
Sunday.

The upper level low pressure over the Desert Southwest will drop
into northern Mexico over the weekend. This feature will lift out
to the northeast early next week and take on a negative tilt. As
this occurs...expect surface low pressure to develop along the
upper Texas coast on Monday and lift northeast into the Mid South
by Monday night. As it lifts northeast it should deepen and help
to lift a warm front northward. There remains uncertainty with
how far north the surface warm front will lift before becoming
occluded from the surface low pressure system. Prior to occlusion
and south of the warm front...deep low level moisture will advance
northward...characterized by mid and upper 60s dewpoints.

Strong lift associated with the negatively tilted upper level
system will be capable of producing severe weather over the warm
sector. The big question at this time is how far north the warm
sector pushes prior to occlusion and whether this will infiltrate
portions of north Mississippi. If the warm sector does make it
northward into portions of our region...we will have the potential
for severe thunderstorms across these locations. Deep layer and
low level shear will be more than sufficient to support organized
severe storm development. Obviously the question will be the
degree of instability available and placement of the warm sector.
If the warm sector does reach parts of our area...then the threat
for all severe weather modes would be possible. Alternatively...if
the warm sector remains south...then the greatest potential will
be periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and no severe
thunderstorms. This potential will need to be watched closely
over the next few days to pinpoint the overall severe storm threat
across our region. The greatest time frame for any severe storms would
be late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Plan to leave any
mention of severe storms out of the Hazardous Weather Outlook
until confidence of occurrence increases.

A modified Pacific airmass will follow the departing storm system
on Tuesday. Morning rainfall on Tuesday morning will end across
eastern sections with dry weather returning for much of the region
by later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures should remain
seasonably mild for this time period.

By Wednesday...another strong cold front will be approaching from
the west. Mild temperatures and mainly dry weather can be expected
for much of the day. By late afternoon...a surface low pressure
developing along the front will increase lift and moisture across
areas west of the Mississippi River. This should result in scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. Increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms can be expected with the strong cold front by
Wednesday night as it moves across the remainder of the forecast
area.

The coldest airmass of the season will push into the Mid South
behind the strong cold front. Dry and cold weather is anticipated
for the end of next week with temperatures more typical of the
heart of winter. High temperatures will struggle to reach out of
the 30s for Thursday and Friday of next week with lows in the
teens and 20s.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs

High clouds will overspread the Midsouth this afternoon. Winds
will be light from the East today and tonight...increasing
slightly to around 10kts tomorrow. Rain showers will move in from
the West overnight. Included VCSH at all sites beginning around
12z ar JBR...around 14z at MEM and 16z at MKL and TUP.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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