Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMEG 012025 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS MIDSOUTH FROM PARIS, TN TO
HELENA, AR. SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH SEEM TO FORM AND THEN DISSIPATE.
TOWARD NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOWERS LAST LONGER AND
ARE STRONGER. SHOWERS COULD QUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TONIGHT TO REDUCE FOG RISK.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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