Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 260456
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1156 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
Updated to include the 06Z Aviation Discussion.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 944 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
Update to lower pops and adjust low temperatures.
The Mid South remains positioned along the northern periphery of a
broad mid level ridge centered along the Gulf Coast. Although
there is no discernible shortwave noted between the departing
wave and one in Oklahoma...there may be subtle disturbances which
may interact with the unstable airmass in place to trigger
isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight. Maintained slight
chance pops areawide...but most locations should remain dry for
the remainder of the night.
Low temperatures should remain in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Updated products have been sent.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
Thunderstorms are ongoing across the MidSouth...focused along an
outflow boundary from storms in northeast Arkansas earlier today.
Expect these storms to gradually shift to the Southeast...likely
maintaining their strength through sunset...then gradually
weakening. Locally heavy rain...up to an inch per hour could
result in flooding. Otherwise...sub severe hail and wind up to 45
mph is possible.
Nothing has really changed across the MidSouth over the last 36
hour or longer...and nothing is really expected over the next two
days or so. Surface high pressure will remain centered along or
just off the Southeastern Coast of the US with a surface low over
the Plains. Both features will gradually shift to the East.
aloft...we will transition from weak Southwest flow to only
slightly stronger South or SSW flow. Dew points will remain in the
upper 60s to low 70s resulting in enhanced afternoon instability.
The wildcard will continue to be the amount of sunshine across the
MidSouth. Any breaks in the cloud cover can set up thermal
boundaries that act as a focus for thunderstorm development...and
obviously would maximize instability.
Friday...a broad trough will shift across the central plains. A
weak shortwave may attain a negative tilt Friday afternoon
shifting across the Mississippi River late Friday. This will
likely be our highest chance of precipitation...and maybe the
greatest threat for severe storms. However...instability may not
be maximized when the dynamic energy swings out of the plains
Friday night. Will maintain a low confidence for strong storms in
Highs for the remainder of the week should be mostly in the
80s...although cloud cover could keep temperatures a bit cooler if
there are few or no breaks.
Rain chances should diminish over the weekend as the midlevel
trough shifts off to the East and Southwest flow returns to the
MidSouth. Weak surface high will build across the area...and a
weak shortwave ridge will shift out of the plains Sunday boosting
temperatures a bit.
Weak...generally zonal flow is expected early next week. Expect
warm temperatures. Highs could approach 90 degrees. Only low
chance to slight chance thunderstorm coverage is expected.
VFR, MVFR, and IFR can be expected over the 06Z TAF period. CIGS
will be the primary concern. Increasing low level moisture will
lead to possible IFR ceilings between 13-16Z for KMEM, KMKL, and
KJBR. Visbys could fall to MVFR levels but south winds between
6-10 KTs should limit fog development. CIGS will begin to rise
tomorrow morning. Thunderstorm activity should increase tomorrow
evening along and west of the Mississippi River, however timing
is still a concern at this point. There was enough confidence to
add VCTS at KMEM at 27-00Z and 26-23Z.