Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
340 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...High rip current risk along the Atlantic beaches today...

A frontal system associated with a cutoff mid-level low over the
Tennessee Valley will push eastward across the southeastern
United States today before the parent mid-level low is absorbed
back into the parent clipper system over the Great Lakes region.
This will cause the front`s progress to slow as it approaches the
peninsula of Florida Monday into Tuesday with an exit from
southern Florida looking likely some point on Wednesday.

Behind the front, drier and cooler air will makes its way south as
high pressure builds in over the Gulf of Mexico. This brief
period of "Autumn" for South Florida will begin by Wednesday night
and continue through Friday. Some features will be crisp mornings
with lows in the 50s and 60s and afternoon highs reaching into
the 70s and lower 80s.

As the week draws to a close, eyes will turn to a couple of
synoptic scale features which will interact somewhere over or near
our region. The first is an area of tropical moisture over the
Caribbean that could push northward ahead of a front propelled by
a few quick clipper systems over the Great Lakes and Canada
heading into the weekend. Frontal timing and the potential for any
tropical or sub-tropical development will need to be monitored but
with this being so far out in the extended, impacts are still too
difficult to discern other than a warming and potentially
increasing rain chance trend next weekend.


An approaching cold front will increase shower and thunderstorm
activity through the middle of the week with winds veering
southerly to southwesterly ahead of the front. Winds and seas
will pick up with and behind the frontal passage. Conditions will
improve late in the week, though another disturbance could
potentially bring unsettled conditions for the weekend.


The persistent southeasterly flow will begin to ease today, which
should allow this to be the last high rip current risk day along
most of the Atlantic beaches. The risk of rip currents will
steadily decrease over the next few days ahead of the next front.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

A few small SHRA will affect South Florida through early
afternoon, with VCSH included along with potential brief MVFR
ceilings. More numerous SHRA and a few TSRA expected to develop
over the interior peninsula early this PM and move east towards
East coast after 21z. Therefore included PROB30 for SHRA/MVFR 21z-
03z all east coast sites, with TSRA mention possibly needed in
later forecasts. Left in VCSH at KAPF for the time being. Wind
140-150 degrees increasing to 15g22 knots after 15z.


West Palm Beach  87  75  85  67 /  30  50  70  60
Fort Lauderdale  87  76  84  70 /  30  50  70  60
Miami            87  76  84  70 /  30  50  70  60
Naples           86  73  84  67 /  40  50  70  60


FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.



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