Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 011902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...ENHANCING RAIN
CHANCES. BASED ON LATEST PROJECTED TRACK...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND MORE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
HAS LEAD TO LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. FEEL SEA-BREEZE
COLLISIONS OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN CWA WILL FORCE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
WITH SUNSET.

LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TREK NORTHWESTERN OVER OR JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
ADVECT COPIOUS MOISTURE...WITH PWAT VALUES RETURNING TO 2-2.5
INCHES. RESULT WILL BE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER CHANCE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.


.LONG TERM...
WINDS VEER MORE TO THE S AND SW INTO MONDAY PERHAPS FOCUSING
STORMS LATE DAY INTO INTERIOR AND EAST. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS
FORECAST TO MOVING WELL EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO MONDAY...BUT
STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. BY LATER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. ULTIMATELY THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO
DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS...SUCH THAT LATE NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS MUCH
DRIER WITH NOT MUCH SURFACE FLOW UNDERNEATH THE CLOSED UPPER
HIGH...AND STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE DOMINATED BY OUTFLOWS THAN
SEABREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING SHRAS/TSRAS MOSTLY AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BELIEVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY KICK OFF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN AND AROUND THE EAST
COAST SITES SO LEFT VCTS IN FROM 19Z-22Z. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND 3
FEET...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO MONDAY...BUT
KEEP IN MIND UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  89  78  90 /  20  50  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  79  90 /  20  60  50  70
MIAMI            78  91  78  91 /  20  60  50  70
NAPLES           76  92  76  92 /  30  70  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...10/CD


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