Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230746
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
346 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...

At the surface, high pressure and a light easterly flow will prevail
over South Florida through the weekend. Aloft, strong upper-level
ridging will continue across the central United States while an
upper-level trough off the eastern seaboard gradually weakens. In
the tropics, a tropical wave will continue to move westward through
the central Carribean.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6PM SATURDAY EVENING/...

Another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected across
much of South Florida today...

As of 345 AM EDT...A quiet and dry weather night across South
Florida and the local waters will continue after an active day of
convection yesterday, outside of some possible widely scattered
showers and storms over the Atlantic waters. Light and variable
winds across many inland areas has allowed for plenty of remnant
outflow boundaries to persist, which will help to focus convection
later this morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening
hours as both Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes develop and collide.

Similar to yesterday, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop by the late morning hours along the Atlantic sea breeze and
portions of the interior, becoming numerous into the afternoon
hours, especially across the interior as the Gulf sea breeze pushes
inland. While the bulk of the activity will be in the interior, the
lingering presence of a weakening upper-level trough and light wind
field will allow for convection to occur anywhere across South
Florida, strongest where sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions
occur.

The primary threats with the strongest thunderstorms will be
frequent lightning, gusty winds up to 50 mph, and heavy rain.
Waterspouts will also be possible over the nearshore waters as well,
with plenty of boundaries and the weak low/midlevel wind field in
place.

High temperatures will be near normal, ranging from near 90 along
the east coast, to lower and mid 90s in the interior and Gulf Coast.
Heat indices will once again top 100 degrees at times during the
late morning/afternoon hours, mainly across the interior and
portions of the Gulf Coast prior to sea breeze development.

SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Saturday Evening/Night - Shower and thunderstorm activity will
continue into the early evening hours, lingering mainly across the
interior, Gulf Coast, and Lake Okeechobee region. During the
overnight hours, typical diurnal trends should ensue with mainly dry
conditions over land and isolated to scattered showers/storms over
the local waters. Low temperatures will range from the mid 70s to
near 80.

Sunday/Sunday Night - Another day of more widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected across South Florida as a
tropical wave continues to pass south of the region across the
Carribean. The best chance for showers/storms will be during the
afternoon/evening hours across the interior and Gulf Coast, with the
Atlantic sea breeze becoming slightly stronger than in recent days.
Will need to keep an eye on the inland extent of the Gulf sea
breeze, which may help to focus additional convection into portions
of the east coast metro.

Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage during the
evening hours, with land areas mainly dry through the nighttime
hours and additional scattered convection possible mainly over the
local Atlantic waters. High temps Sunday will range from the upper
80s to lower 90s with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid 70s to
near 80.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The long term period will feature mainly afternoon and evening
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with a continued
east/southeasterly flow keeping the bulk of the activity across
the interior and Gulf Coast. Hints of a weak SAL intrusion will be
possible early next week, which may limit overall convective
coverage somewhat. The aforementioned tropical wave will continue
to progress westward into the western Carribean by the midweek
period.

Temperatures will be near normal for late July during the long term
period.

MARINE...

A light easterly flow will prevail across the local Atlantic and
Gulf waters through the weekend, generally around 10 knots or less.
Locally higher winds will be possible in and around thunderstorms,
along with frequent lightning and rough seas. Seas are expected to
be 3 feet or less with little to no swell. The easterly flow will
begin to increase and shift more southerly heading into next
week, with minor increases in seas possible, but still expected to
be 3 feet or less.

Rip current risk will be low through the weekend for Atlantic and
Gulf beaches with a light easterly flow in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light easterly flow through much of the period, except for APF
which will have a Gulf sea breeze push through later today.
Morning Atlantic showers and a thunderstorm or two could affect the
east coast terminals, but the majority of afternoon convection is
expected to be inland of the terminals. APF could see some
convection in the vicinity as the sea breeze passes in the late
morning to afternoon hours and remnant convection near the
terminal as the sea breeze retreats later in the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  89  74  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  88  75  87  76 /  50  30  50  40
Miami            90  75  89  76 /  50  20  50  40
Naples           89  75  85  75 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...92/IRL
LONG TERM....92/IRL
AVIATION...02/RAG


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