Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 011211
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
811 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEAKENING AND HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY
BUILDING IN. THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, EXCEPT FOR DIRECTIONAL CHANGES DUE TO ANY SEA BREEZES THAT
FORM. THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE ANY CONVECTION TO OCCUR TOWARD THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE, NO MENTION OF
CONVECTION IN ANY TAFS ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE IS A VCSH FOR KAPF. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES AS THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE TO MID LEVELS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAINLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONCENTRATE MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST EVENING`S STORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY
STABILIZED THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SUBTLE CHANGES FOR TODAY
INCLUDE A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED EAST WIND FLOW WHICH WILL ACT
TO FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS (ABOUT THE SAME INTERIOR AND GULF COAST). BASE
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COULD STILL
PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WHICH COULD WORK THEIR WAY SE
FROM THE GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA DOWN TO OUR REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT, IT WOULD
MOST LIKELY AFFECT AREAS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE GULF COAST AS
OPPOSED TO THE EAST COAST AS WAS THE CASE LAST EVENING.

A PATCH OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
ON THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS AND SAHARAN DUST
ACCORDING TO NASA GEOS-5 AEROSOL THICKNESS OUTPUT. NET RESULT IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EAST COAST AND ABOUT THE SAME (40-60%)
INTERIOR TO GULF COAST. ON FRIDAY, MODELS DEPICT INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE E/SE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE HIGHEST POPS OF
THE PERIOD, WITH SCATTERED MORNING EAST COAST SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTERIOR TO GULF
COAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK)...
MODELS SHOW THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND, THEN BREAKING DOWN AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN OF
DIURNAL PRECIP FAVORING EAST COAST IN THE NIGHT/MORNING AND
INTERIOR/GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
INDEPENDENCE DAY COULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF FRIDAY`S MORE MOIST
PATTERN, BUT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CUT DOWN A
LITTLE ON POPS. NASA AEROSOL THICKNESS OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW
SAHARAN DUST PERIODICALLY AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BENIGN PATTERN WITH
GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  90  79 /  40  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  90  80 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  90  80 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  76  92  76 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...13/SI


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