Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 112339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS ALL OF S FL. DENSE CI SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN AND DSPT TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SKC DRNG THE DAY
FRI. WEAK ENERLY/VRB SFC WINDS EARLY IN THE EVENING SHOULD BECOME
MORE NNWRLY OVERNIGHT...VEERING MORE ERLY FRI MRNG AND SERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. OBSERVED DEW
POINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE IN
THE 20S AND 30S WITH WITH LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WARMING
TREND TONIGHT. BOTH GLOBAL MODEL AND MESO-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH THE ATLANTIC METRO AREAS MAINLY NEAR 50 TO
LOWER 50S.

A WEAK...MAINLY DRY AND DIFFUSE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
REGIONAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND TO THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COULD
BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION.

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH A CLEARING TREND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT FORECAST TO
EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ASSESS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE REGION AND FOR NOW MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MARINE...

OFF SHORE GULF SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FEET EARLY THIS EVENING AND GULF
STREAM SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET EARLY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY. BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER ON SATURDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
DIFFUSE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FEET ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE OFF SHORE GULF
WATERS AND GULF STREAM WATERS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. IF THE
GUIDANCE TRENDS INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WINDS OF
MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...HAZARDOUS SEAS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE FOR THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS FROM EITHER THE WIND CRITERIA OR THE WAVE
CRITERIA OR BOTH...WE`LL JUST HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE GUIDANCE TRENDS
ARE FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...

ON FRIDAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AROUND 3 TO 4 HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR REGIONS AND NORTHERN INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY.
BUT BY THE WEEKEND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
GO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  47  75  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  53  74  58  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            55  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           47  72  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79


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