Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 200031
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
731 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Lowered pops across the region based on radar trends for this
evening. Otherwise, there were no other changes made to the
previous forecast. The cold front will push through the region
tonight, however it will not have a lot of moisture to work with.
There still will be the chance of a shower mainly over the marine
areas and the east coast metro areas during the overnight hours.
The front then stalls out over the Florida Straits and the
moisture begins to increase on Monday. This will allow for a
better chance of showers especially across the eastern half of
South Florida during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017/

AVIATION...Front currently moving into region with little more
than extra midlevel clouds and the occasional sprinkle. Light west
winds currently should become NW late evening as front moves in.
Can`t rule out a sprinkle, but threat looks to low to include at
the moment. Brief MVFR cigs possible behind front, mainly at KAPF.
Front stalls over south portion of region late, winds become NNE
10-12Z, with gusty ENE winds at all sites after 14Z. Threat for
SHRA generally limited to KMIA-KTMB after 19Z for this TAF cycle.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front will approach and move through the region
tonight bringing slightly cooler temperatures to South Florida.
This front will have very little moisture to work with as it
passes through, so the rain chances will be low, however, the
highest chances tonight will be confined to the east coast as well
as the marine areas. Rain chances increase over the region on
Monday as this front will stall out over the Florida Straits and
a northeasterly flow brings in more moisture from the Atlantic. At
the same time, an upper level shortwave will deepen over the
northern Gulf of Mexico which will help to increase the rain
chances on Tuesday as well. Conditions will be unstable enough to
support a slight chance of thunderstorms as well on Tuesday.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler tonight and Monday behind the
front with low temperatures tonight dropping into the 50s across
the northwest interior to the 60s across the rest of the region.
High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 70s to
around 80.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF continue to agree on the progression of
a shortwave trough over the northern Gulf as well as an area of
low pressure impacting South Florida towards the end of the week.
This trough will deepen Wednesday as it approaches northern
Florida on Thanksgiving Day. The best support of convection will
be in northern Florida, however, we will be in a warm and humid
air mass to the south on Wednesday. A surface trough will move
through the region on Thanksgiving day, which will allow for more
showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms across South Florida.
The GFS and the ECMWF continue to differ in timing of the
departure of the system on Friday and the arrival of drier air to
the region, however, they both agree that there will not be a
significantly cooler air mass behind it. High temperatures behind
the system will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the
mid to upper 50s across the interior, to the 60s across the east
coast metro areas.

MARINE...A cold front will move across the Atlantic and Gulf
waters tonight brining gusty winds along with it behind the front.
Seas could reach up to 8 feet in the Gulf Stream potentially
through Monday night. Rain chances will gradually increase tonight
through Monday night and thunderstorms will be possible on
Tuesday. Due to the increase in winds and seas tonight, hazardous
marine conditions are expected later tonight through Monday
morning.

BEACH FORECAST...A cold front will move across South Florida
tonight and the winds will increase out of the east northeast
behind the front. The onshore flow will increase the risk of rip
currents across the Atlantic beaches on Monday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  67  79  72  82 /  30  40  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  68  79  72  83 /  30  50  40  60
Miami            68  80  71  83 /  30  50  40  60
Naples           65  81  67  81 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for GMZ676.

&&

UPDATE...55/CWC










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