Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230850
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
350 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Short Term (Today-Saturday)...Latest surface analysis
and satellite loops show surface low just off the east central FL
coast with trailing front just of the southeast FL coast. Upper air
sndg analysis combined with SSM/I/AMSU/GPSMET derived precipitable
water show values peaked earlier yesterday afternoon about 150-170%
of normal and are down now to around normal or just around or below
1 inch. This is associated with lingering low level moisture behind
sfc low/front across eastern gulf of mexico as water vapor loop
shows mid level dry layer has clearly moved into the area while mid
level low is currently somewhere around the Lake Oke region. So
despite lingering moisture, subsidence on back side of the low has
began to filter in and this should suppress any shower activity from
this point forward. Most of this activity, if any, should remain
well east of the area across the Atlantic waters, even well east of
our off shore atlantic marine zones.

Latest models consensus shows the aforementioned low and associated
trough/front gradually continuing to move east into the Atlantic
waters through today and Friday. As the low/trough complex moves
further away from the area, weak high pressure will be building in
its wake. This along with the aforementioned subsidence behind the
low will mean drier and slightly cooler air descending upon the
region this morning lows about 5 to 8 degrees cooler than previous
days. But the cooler temps will be short-lived as a warming trend
begins right away today and continuing for the rest of the period.
It will remain dry outside lingering clouds today before low level
moisture/clouds clear the area more definitely by late Friday and
into the early part of the weekend.

Long Term (Saturday night-Wednesday)...In general, expect dry and
benign weather to continue through the extended period as a weak
front bypasses area to the north by mid weekend and a stronger high
pressure ridge builds to the north. This high will move off shore
early part of next week which combined with stronger mid level ridge
building across the area will maintain mostly dry conditions through
the period. Nothing outside of the ordinary when looking at the
NAEFS and GEFS anomaly tables but given this synoptic pattern
preceded by weak frontal systems temps should and will indeed
remain above normal.

&&

.MARINE...Winds should top mostly in the 10-15 knots range through
the weekend across most of the South Florida waters with may be
periods of 15 to 20 knots across the gulf waters through tonight
(but it will be borderline) and again late in the weekend. Then as
high pressure ridge to the north exits the area early next week and
pressure gradient strengthens strong onshore flow in the 15 to 20
knots range is forecast across the Atlantic waters for that portion
of the forecast. 4 TO 6 seas and occasionally higher possible mainly
off the coast of Palm Beach county later this week and into the
early part of the weekend as a NE 1-3 feet swell moves in and again
late this weekend into early next week as on shore flow strengthens.

&&

.AVIATION...The winds will continue to be light out of the west for
the rest of the morning hours for all the east coast TAF sites. KAPF
will be light and variable. There could be some fog formation and
low level stratus development particularly at KAPF with some low
level stratus also possible across the east coast sites. That said,
VFR conditions should prevail outside some periods of MVFR mainly
ceiling conditions which cannot be ruled out particularly through
the first half of the day. But given uncertainty associated with it
left out of the TAFs for now and will amend as needed. Westerly wind
will gradually increase today to around 8 to 12 knots.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...The threat of rip currents is expected to diminish
today behind the weak frontal passage but it may remain moderate
particularly for the palm beach county beaches where they are more
exposed to a NE ground swell which might assert itself over next
couple of days on the back side of the surface low as it departs the
area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns with low level humidity levels. Dispersion conditions
should remain generally good today in areas seeing most sun
through the day allowing for better mixing in the boundary layer.
Elsewhere conditions will be fair. The same can be said for
tomorrow but weaker transport winds will make conditions more
borderline particularly farther south from the Lake Okeechobee
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  77  62  82  65 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  78  64  82  69 /  20  10  10   0
Miami            78  64  83  68 /  20  10  10   0
Naples           74  64  80  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...33/Kelly
DISCUSSION...52/PS
MARINE...52/PS
AVIATION...33/Kelly
BEACH FORECAST...52/PS
FIRE WEATHER...52/PS
HYDROLOGY...52/PS
CLIMATE...52/PS


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