Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 312359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
759 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...

WHILE MOST OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED...THERE ARE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MIAMI DADE COUNTY AND
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF CAPE SABLE. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA AND
EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD. THERE IS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA AND ANOTHER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.

BY SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
NORTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
BUILD WESTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE
RELATIVELY STATIC WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING WESTWARD AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW LINGERING AROUND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO BE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH FLORIDA...BUT REGIONAL PWAT IS FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 1.6 INCHES. PLUS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN THE SEASONAL NORMS. THE FORECAST IS FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE PENINSULA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY ON
SATURDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND GENERALLY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY
WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR REGIONS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FOR SEASONAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE SATURDAY THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 7 TO 12 KNOTS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS FROM 3 TO 4 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS LATER ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS IN THE GULF
STREAM WATERS TO NEAR 3 FEET ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  92  78  91 /  40  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  80  90 /  40  30  30  30
MIAMI            79  91  79  91 /  40  30  30  30
NAPLES           77  93  77  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD


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