Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 010537 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
137 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

The winds will be light and variable early this morning over all
of South Florida taf sites, before becoming southerly around 5
knots this morning. The winds will then become easterly around 10
knots this afternoon over the east coast taf sites, and westerly
around 5 to 10 knots at KAPF taf site.

The weather should remain dry early this morning over most of the
taf sites, except for KFLL taf site where a shower or two could
work int the taf site from the Atlantic waters. Therefore, VCSH will
remain in the forecast for KFLL taf site for the early morning
hours. Scattered showers will develop over the metro areas of
South in the morning before thunderstorms develop in the afternoon
hours. Therefore, VCSH will be added to all of the taf sites for
this morning with VCTS for the afternoon hours.

The ceiling and vis will also be in the VFR conditions outside of
any showers or thunderstorms, and could fall down in the IFR
conditions in the showers and thunderstorms.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 757 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016/


Late in the afternoon a line of strong thunderstorms in the
interior peninsula initiated a large outflow boundary that is
still spawning additional showers and a few thunderstorms across
the eastern and western portions of the peninsula. But overall
activity is slowly subsiding. The short term forecast was updated
to reflect these conditions. In addition a line of showers and
thunderstorms continues across the off shore Atlantic waters.
Otherwise...the forecast remains on track. 60/BD


Outflow from the earlier cluster of storms across
the interior coupled with weak S-SW flow has lead to some additional
SHRA/TSRA development near the east coast. Based on current
precip trends, have kept VCTS for KPBI through 01/02Z with VCSH
for other east coast sites. KAPF looks to remain dry for now,
but will have to watch additional outflows that may push west over
the next hour.

Light S-SW winds overnight with potential for VCSH for all east
coast sites for ATLC shra activity. Summertime repeat for Friday
with isolated TSRA developing along coasts after 01/14Z becoming
SCT- NMRS through the afternoon hours. /ALM


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016/


The main synoptic features across the region include a surface
trough across the northern Gulf, a surface low in Northern
Georgia and associated frontal system across the southeastern
states. This is evident from recent satellite imagery indicating
widespread cloudiness across northern Florida and northern Gulf.
Southerly low level flow across the region continues to maintain
deep moisture with the 12z sounding PWAT just over two inches. In
addition the western periphery of the subtropical ridge extends into
the Florida peninsula.

Forecast for Friday through the upcoming weekend...The main
regional synoptic features will remain somwhat steady on Friday
and Saturday with the western edge of the subtropical ridge
extending into South Florida and the front across the southeastern
states remaining somewhat stationary. Latest guidance indicates
that 850 hpa mass and moisture convergence will maintain a plume
of deeper moisture across the Atlantic waters and the eastern
peninsula on Friday and Saturday...with this feature already in
place late this afternoon. Generally southerly low level flow will
continue to maintain deeper moisture tonight through the weekend
and latest guidance indicates mid-level temperatures remaining
near climatological norms during this period. The forecast for
Friday and Saturday indicates diurnally driven scattered to
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms with greatest
coverage across the Atlantic waters and the eastern half of the
peninsula. By Sunday the guidance trends have indicated that the
deeper moisture plume is forecast to shift westward with greatest
shower/thunderstorm coverage expected across the interior
peninsula in the afternoon/early evening.

Rip current potential...A slight chance of rip currents could be
possible across the Atlantic coast beaches late in the weekend
into early next week as high pressure re-builds and easterly winds
become more persistent.

Forecast for Monday the Fourth of July...Latest global model
consensus indicates the subtropical ridge established across the
Florida peninsula and into the western Gulf with easterly flow
prevailing into the mid to upper levels with diurnally driven
showers/thunderstorms mainly inland and western peninsula with
more isolated activity across the Atlantic waters and Atlantic
metro areas. There is some uncertainty however as an upper level
low is forecast to slowly retrograde westward in the vicinity of
Cuba by Monday and also a tropical wave is forecast to be east of
the Yucatan peninsula by this time. Will have to have additional
guidance to see how these factors might influence the region but
current forecast does not have any significant impacts.

Extended forecast...

Extended guidance indicates the subtropical ridge to be well
established across the region with mainly easterly flow and
scattered diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms mainly interior
and western peninsula.


Guidance trends continue to indicate winds mainly 10 to 15 knots
or less through the early part of the weekend with Gulf seas
around 1 foot and Atlantic and Gulf Stream seas 2 feet or less
through this period. By early Sunday, as high pressure slowly re-
builds, Atlantic winds forecast to be 10 to 15 knot range but
could be a few knots higher with seas to near 3 feet possible
across portions of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream waters.


West Palm Beach  77  90  79  90 /  30  50  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  81  90 /  40  60  20  40
Miami            78  90  80  91 /  30  60  20  40
Naples           77  91  78  91 /  20  40  20  40


.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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