Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 161357
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
957 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LAST EVENING HAS
NOW STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH, THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ONSHORE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FOR THE FLOW TO ENCOUNTER AND AID IN THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY. THIS COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH THE HRRR INDICATING THIS AND EVEN A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THE PROBABILITY OF
LIGHTNING IS TOO LOW BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IF
PATTERNS APPEAR TO BE CHANGING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE KEYS WILL START TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE WINDS TO BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND
TO A EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERRUNNING SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SO WILL KEEP THE POPS
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...EXCEPT A
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE POPS WILL
THEN BE RAISED TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS LATE TONIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING INTO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY AS THE 500 MB TEMP COOLS DOWN TO -12C OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE
TO THE AREA. SO WILL INCREASE THE POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHBOEE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
AREA WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...DUE TO A SHORT
WAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE 500 MB
TEMPS REMAINING COOL IN THE -10 TO -12C RANGE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SO
THE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE DRY WEATHER TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING ALL BUT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS AT 12Z...AND
LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOK FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO SCOUR SOME CLOUDS AWAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING...WHEN
VCSH IS FORECAST. UNTIL THEN...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED.
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT...FOR NOW KEPT CLOUDS ABOVE 3KFT.

MARINE...
THE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING TO SWING TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY INTO FRIDAY.

THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL NORTHEAST SWELLS OVER THE PALM BEACH
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO THE SEAS IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 7
FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 7 FEET ALONG WITH THE GULF SEAS.

CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY...APRIL 15...MIAMI TIED A DAILY HIGH MINIMUM OF
76F...LAST REACHED IN 1999.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  72  83  72 /  20  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  75  84  75 /  30  40  50  30
MIAMI            82  74  85  74 /  40  50  50  30
NAPLES           83  68  87  68 /  20  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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