Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 260833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
433 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Short term (Today-Thursday night)...with a generally light flow
remaining in place, expect sea breezes each afternoon which will
become the focal point for convection. MFL sounding and model
moisture data do not show deep layer moisture over the area, with
shower/storm coverage near normal values. Best chances of rain
remain over the interior today and Wed afternoon.

Global model solutions, mainly GFS and ECMWF, depict a deepening
mid/upper lvl trough across most of the eastern half of the CONUS
starting Thursday. This will gradually veer winds to a more
southerly flow, bringing increasing deeper moisture from the
Caribbean across South Florida. Pops have been updated, along
with thunderstorm coverage becoming more widespread Thu/Thu night.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals, reaching upper
80s to lower 90s during the days, and 70s for overnight minima.

Long term (Thursday night-Monday)...a weak cold front boundary
reaches northern Florida by Friday, which may stall near or just
north of the region over the weekend. Deeper moisture is expected
to remain in place with showers and thunderstorms likely Fri and
possibly Sat. For Sunday and into early next week, GFS dries the
area faster than ECMWF, while the later depicts South Florida
remaining in a highly moist and unstable environment. Model
solutions also show a weak low pressure developing between South
Florida and the Bahamas along the dissipating frontal boundary.
Therefore, rain chances will remain relatively high through the
weekend. Temperatures should remain near normals.


Hurricane Maria will keep pushing a NE swell across the region
with seas of up to 8 feet in the Gulf Stream off Palm Beach
County. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for those waters.
Winds will not be a factor for the rest of the week. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase late this week.


High Risk of Rip Currents continue over all Atlantic beaches and
a High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the Palm Beach County
coastline as the swell from hurricane Maria continues.


Light and variable winds will continue overnight with a couple
isolated showers moving slowly northeast over the peninsula. Aft
26/1600Z, expecting southerly winds to increase to around 10 KT.
Sea breeze interaction should spark VCTS conds along a much of the
east coast metro between 16/1800-17/0000Z and have included
mention in the latest package. Winds and shower/storm activity
should dwindle by evening.


West Palm Beach  92  75  91  75 /  50  20  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  76  89  76 /  50  30  50  30
Miami            89  77  90  76 /  50  30  60  20
Naples           90  76  90  75 /  30  20  40  30


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for
     FLZ168-172- 173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-670.



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