Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 280828
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
428 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
Today-Tuesday: The focus for the next few days will be on the
weak and disorganized area of low pressure currently near the
north coast of Cuba. The tropical low is forecast to move through
the Florida Straits through the day, and into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Saturday night`s sounding showed PWATs
slightly lower at around 2", with shower coverage also a little
lower overnight as we saw some effects of the subsidence ahead of
As we head through the day, especially into this afternoon and
evening, deep tropical moisture will rapidly return to South Florida
with PWATs coming up to 2.3 to 2.4". Brisk east-northeast, and
then east-southeast flow will bring numerous showers and storms
across the region through Tuesday. Better chances will be in the
afternoons with some modest daytime heating. Squally weather is
likely at times, especially along the east coast as gusty showers
and storms periodically move in from the Atlantic. It will be
breezy at times even outside of storms.
Forecast rainfall amounts show potential for 2 to 4 inches with
the heaviest downpours through mid-week, mainly in the Monday-
Tuesday time frame. However, it is important to keep in mind
that these amounts will be highly dependent on the final track
and outcome of the tropical wave. Even at lower amounts, locally
heavy rainfall will be concern with poor drainage flooding
possible, especially in urbanized areas. While not the main
threat, a few stronger storms may produce wind gusts to 40-50 mph
as they move into the east coast, or are enhanced by heating over
The increasing east winds, and 1-2ft swell filtering into the
Palm Beach waters into Monday will bring a high risk of rip
currents to the Atlantic beaches over the next few days. Rough
surf will also be a concern along the beaches.
Wednesday-Saturday: Regardless of the eventual development, or
lack thereof, of the tropical low, the forecast through at least
mid week keeps the region in deep tropical moisture and a
continuing unsettled pattern. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day, with higher chances in the afternoon and
evening hours, though activity may occur at anytime.
The unsettled weather may extend into Thursday, although coverage
should be decreasing by then. A more typical summer pattern may
return to South Florida by the upcoming weekend. Frequent lightning
and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary threats.
In addition, the abundant moisture will keep conditions muggy and
A tropical wave passing south of the region will impact the TAF
sites with passing scattered showers and thunderstorms, with more
widespread coverage possible after 00z Monday. Have gone with VCTS
at the east coast TAF sites through the period, with VCSH possible
at KAPF possible by 13z and VCTS by 16z. VFR flying conditions
will generally prevail outside of any MVFR/IFR associated with
passing showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will be easterly around 10 knots overnight, increasing
during the daytime hours around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
possible, especially for the east coast TAF sites. Winds will
decrease somewhat after 00z, but still be 10-15 knots at times.
Small craft should exercise caution over all the Atlantic coastal
waters during the next couple of days.
East-southeast winds at least 15kts will continue over all the
waters through Monday, with 15-20kts possible at times as an area of
low pressure is forecast to move through the Florida Straits into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. For the moment, winds are
forecast to veer more south-southwest into mid week. But considerable
uncertainty remains for winds and seas into mid week hinging on
the eventual movement and potential development of this
Seas are currently forecast to be around 2-4ft in both the the
Atlantic and Gulf, occasionally up to 6 feet at times through mid
week. However this will likely continue to fluctuate with changes
in the forecast.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over all the waters
through midweek, with rough seas and locally gusty winds with any
thunderstorm that forms.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 90 78 88 76 / 60 60 80 60
Fort Lauderdale 88 77 86 77 / 70 60 80 70
Miami 87 78 87 77 / 70 70 80 70
Naples 92 77 90 77 / 50 30 70 60
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM....ALM