Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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000 FXUS62 KMFL 201924 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 224 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTH (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT) TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEX. SFC TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE E-SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS NRN GULF/SE U.S. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT STALLING. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RESULT IN RATHER WARM AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AND THIS COULD WORK AGAINST IT. WL NOT MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH IT SOUTH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. .MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KTS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME VARIABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW 6 FEET. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 68 83 69 85 / 10 10 20 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 70 84 71 85 / 10 10 20 30 MIAMI 69 85 70 85 / 10 10 20 30 NAPLES 66 85 67 83 / - 10 20 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH AVIATION...57/DG
