Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 062038
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON
AS A RESULT OF WEAK SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE. A STRONG 591
DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO
MITIGATE ANY ENHANCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS RIDGE HAS ALSO
KEPT THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM PUSHING ANY
FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
FRONT BEGINNING TO STALL. BECAUSE OF THIS...TRIMMED POPS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THIS EVENING. STILL BELIEVE A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER AREA WIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ALLOWING THE FRONT TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
RELATIVELY DRIER PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION DUE TO SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND PROXIMITY TO
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY
RETREAT TO THE EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS DEPICT THIS LOW SLOWLY PUSHING TO
THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY AS A MID LEVEL LONGWAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK STALLED FRONT, COMBINED WITH EASTERLY FLOW, WILL LEAD TO SOME
SHOWERS AND MORE NUMEROUS CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SLIM
CHANCE OF TS ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TODAY, SO WILL LEAVE OUT VCTS FOR
NOW. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE PBI
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, SO KEPT VCSH. HOWEVER, PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS TONIGHT. STRATUS/SEA FOG IS PREDICTED TO
OOZE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST PER SREF CIGS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING
APF TONIGHT WITH EITHER IFR CIG OR VIS. TYPICALLY THE SREF IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE EVENTS, SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. AT
THE VERY LEAST, EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AT THE OTHER TERMINALS BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARRIVE AT THE AIRPORTS. MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW, AND SOME MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ESPECIALLY AT PBI AND APF.

&&

.MARINE...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS BY MID DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  80  71  80 /  20  50  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  80  70  79 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            69  82  69  82 /  20  30  40  50
NAPLES           63  81  65  83 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



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