Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 070100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING THROUGH
GLADES/HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP SOME POPS
IN THESE COUNTIES AS THIS OCCURS, ALSO THE HRRR DOES KEEP SOME
ACTIVITY THERE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED.
INCREASING DRYING ALOFT AND WEAK WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE
REGION DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
EAST OF KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND
VIS. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN A LIGHT
DRAINAGE FLOW AFTER 02Z TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 15Z ON
FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED AND FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND NHC
NOW GIVES THIS FEATURE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION BY FRIDAY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD...AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA.

THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO FIRE AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL DEVELOP AT ALL. CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE THROUGH 0Z MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN IF CURRENT
TRENDS PREVAIL. BY LATE THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
HAVE DISSIPATED.

TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TAKES HOLD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER
THE INTERIOR...WHERE SEA-BREEZES WILL BE DURING MAXIMUM HEATING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE...PROVIDING SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR IF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE LESS EXCITED ABOUT THIS SCENARIO. THE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO INTERACT WITH THE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ONLY
FOR PBI AND VCSH FOR ALL THE OTHER AIRPORTS EXCEPT FOR APF.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SWELL FROM THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS MAY
IMPACT THE AREA IN A FEW DAYS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH IT
STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  84  69  88 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  86  72  88 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            70  87  72  88 /  10  20  10  40
NAPLES           68  86  69  87 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM


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