Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 252100 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
500 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Marine conditions continue to slowly improve across the local
waters, and the Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters is
no longer in effect. However, winds in the 15 to 20 kt range will
require keeping Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines into
tonight for the Atlantic waters. Winds and seas will continue to
subside into early next week as high pressure and drier weather
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017/
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT...Latest surface analysis reveals a tranquil
weather pattern across South Florida, with high pressure building
in from the north and weak upper-level ridging aloft. This weather
pattern has allowed for drier air from the north to continue to
slowly filter in across the region, with PWATs now below 1 inch
helping to limit shower activity as compared to recent days.
Still, isolated light showers streaming in off the Atlantic will
be possible the rest of today and into tonight, although most
areas will be dry.
The easterly flow will continue to gradually weaken as the day
progresses, allowing the Gulf sea breeze to possibly develop late
this afternoon. It will remain breezy at times, with gusts of 20-25
mph common across the east coast. High temperatures look to top out
around 80 along the east coast, and low and mid 80s for the interior
and Gulf Coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper
50s/lower 60s in the interior and Gulf Coast, to mid/upper 60s for
the east coast.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The breezy easterly flow regime will finally begin to weaken in the
short term period, as drier air continues to filter in from the
north as high pressure at the surface ridges in from the north,
along with weak upper-level ridging aloft. South Florida will
continue to remain disconnected from any major synoptic features
allowing for fair and generally dry weather outside of a few light
showers possible off the Atlantic for eastern areas.
Highs Sunday and Monday will generally be in the 80s with lows
Sunday night generally in the 60s, with a few isolated upper 50s
readings in portions of the interior. Lows Monday night will range
from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term period will feature generally tranquil and dry weather
as high pressure dominates. A dry frontal passage looks possible in
the midweek period, with little changes in sensible weather expected
in its wake. Long term model guidance is now hinting at the
potential for a more potent front impacting the region late in the
work week to weekend, and trends will need to continue to be
monitored as this front may be the next chance for widespread
rainfall and/or thunderstorms across the region.
With the east/southeasterly flow in place, temperatures will be
above normal for the long term period, with daytime highs well into
the 80s and lows in the 60s. In fact, high temperatures during the
midweek period may even make a run at the 90 degree mark across
portions of the interior.
A High Risk of rip currents will continue for the Atlantic beaches
through Sunday with strong easterly onshore flow. The rip current
risk for the Atlantic beaches should begin to decrease by early next
week as the flow weakens and becomes more southeasterly.
Isolated showers possible mainly Miami-Dade and Broward terminals
through the period, but expected coverage, confidence in timing,
and likely minimal impact preclude mentioning in 18Z TAFs. VFR
conditions should dominate with 3-6KFT CIGs at times over eastern
areas. E wind 15-20 KT with higher gusts through early evening,
before diminishing to 5-10 KT overnight. Winds will increase to 10
to 15 KT by mid-morning Sunday. Still looks like partial Gulf
breeze will impact Naples before about 20Z, so have placed a few
hour period with southerly winds for KAPF.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 68 81 66 80 / 20 10 10 10
Fort Lauderdale 70 80 69 81 / 20 10 10 10
Miami 69 81 68 82 / 20 10 10 10
Naples 63 83 63 81 / 10 10 0 10
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.