Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 220746
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS DEEP LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. STILL PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TROUGH...SO POPS ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES AGAIN FOR TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF WESTWARD-MOVING WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ORIENTED OVER
WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST
OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SEA BREEZES INTRUDE AND FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
INLAND. SINCE LITTLE/NO AIR-MASS CHANGE FROM LAST
DAYS...PERSISTENCE WARRANTS MENTIONING URBAN FLOOD AND POSSIBLE
STRONG MICROBURST /50 MPH MAX/ POTENTIAL TODAY.

BY TONIGHT...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST...PWAT VALUES DROP TO BELOW 2 INCHES...NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. EXPECT THIS DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...THUS POPS DECREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG
SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARIES...YIELDING HIGHEST SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10Z BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...WHILE AT KAPF
TAF SITE THE WINDS WILL SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z
THIS MORNING BEFORE SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE
TAF STIES. ONCE THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
PUSHES INLAND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL
KEEP THE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FROM 15/16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.

THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES ARE UNKNOWN. SO WILL KEEP THE CEILING AND VIS IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS ON THIS TAF SITE PACKAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER TO SEE IF TEMPOS WILL BE NEEDED FOR REDUCE VIS AND
CEILING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
AWAY FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN THIS WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10
KTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN CONCERN AROUND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE WATERSPOUTS...MOSTLY LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COASTS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  60  40  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  81 /  60  40  40  20
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  60  40  50  20
NAPLES           90  76  91  77 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB



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