Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 191954
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX PATTERN OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOWS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH LOWS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MID WEST
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO AN
EXTENSIVE LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEEP BOUNDARY
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO THE NET EFFECT OF THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PWAT
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORECAST STABILITY INDICES INDICATING A LOCALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. OVERALL THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ASSESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANY POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS BEING A POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A CHANCE OF HAIL. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS ALWAYS WILL UPDATE THE POTENTIAL WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FAVORING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING
AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AGAIN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH ATLANTIC SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET AND GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. ON MONDAY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN
OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE WIND
FORECAST BY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGIONAL WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  70  85 /  30  60  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  50
NAPLES           74  87  71  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD



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