Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 041952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ON THE WAY...

* HAZY SKIES OVERSPREAD SOUTH FL OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY
* LESS TSTORMS NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT PULSE STRONG-SEVERE POSSIBLE
* FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH-RES MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CONVECTION FOCUSING OVER INTERIOR
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON (OCCURRING NOW) WITH DISSIPATION BY
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS IN THE 10 PM-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. WON`T
GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING...SO PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO THIS EVENING AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTION ON WHETHER IT WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY FOR FOURTH FIREWORKS DISPLAYS THIS EVENING OR IF
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTORMS TO DEAL WITH.

AN IMPRESSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) IS APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. NASSAU SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
LAYER AT AROUND 7KFT. THIS WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTH FL SUN-TUE...RESULTING IN
VERY HAZY SKIES AS SUSPENDED DUST PARTICLES FROM THE SAHARAN
DESERT LIE OVERHEAD. SO ADDED IN HAZE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
TUESDAY. FIREWORKS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE HAZINESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.

PWATS FALL IN THE SAL DOWN TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CONVECTION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SAL ARE SUCH THAT
STRONG OR EVEN PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7C/KM) OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED BUT INTENSE TSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOON`S...FAVORING THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST.

BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A TUTT-LIKE LOW PUSHING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS
FEATURE IS NOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY...AS SHOWN BY
THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE ONLY
A MINOR IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...ONLY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES BY.
/GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONLY THREAT
BEING GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  90  79  91 /  30  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  81  91 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            80  91  80  91 /  20  10  20  20
NAPLES           76  92  76  92 /  20  40  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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