Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 281256
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
856 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
This mornings sounding has come in with expected higher PWATs.
However, 500mb temps are still relatively warm, at -8.7C. There is
a weak inversion between 850mb and 800mb, as well as another weak
one at around 700mb. NCAPE is up to .15 this morning, so there is
decent vertical velocity. However, looking at RADAR, the showers
and storms making their way onto the southeast Florida Atlantic
coast, are having trouble penetrating too far inland. This should
begin to change as day time heating begins to destabilize the
interior. Have raised PoPs along the coast this morning to
reflect current activity and adjusted coverage in the interior for
this afternoon. The HRRR is showing the convective activity to
approach the Gulf coast this afternoon, then it appears the Gulf
breeze kicks in late this afternoon and blows the convection back
towards the interior, before it winds down this evening.
Other than the adjustments mentioned above, and some minor
adjustments to initialize with current conditions, no significant
changes have been made.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 807 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
Unsettled weather is forecast through the day across South
Florida, with a chance of showers and storms along both coasts.
Currently, showers and isolated storms over the Atlantic waters
are weakening as they move onshore. Have gone back and added a
tempo for a couple of hours this morning for TSRA as the lightning
activity has increased some this morning. The activity is forecast
to move towards the interior by this afternoon. VFR will be the
predominate condition, with brief IFR possible under heavy showers
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
With no major weather features impacting South Florida well into
next week, sea breeze boundaries will be the main driver of
showers across the region. Temperatures will remain seasonably
warm with the most likely area for showers and thunderstorms being
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tropical Depression 2 remains poorly organized early this morning
as it moves northwestward north of the Bahamas. Located at 2 AM
EDT about 300 miles SE of the South Carolina coast, TD 2 is
expected to become a tropical storm, with the name of Bonnie,
sometime today, but will not be impacting South Florida.
Across South Florida, light to moderate easterly flow continues
and low level moisture has been sufficient for isolated to
scattered Atlantic showers overnight. A few of these showers have
impacted and will continue to impact the east coast metropolitan
areas. Expect this activity to gradually increase in coverage and
intensity after daybreak, with a few thunderstorms possible by
late morning. By afternoon, the Atlantic sea breeze will focus
showers more inland, so Atlantic coastal areas may dry some. Any
thunderstorms today could produce frequent lightning, but strong
convection is not anticipated. Activity will diurnally diminish
this evening, with a similar pattern forecast for Sunday. By
Memorial Day, slightly drier air in place will lead to a
reduction in shower/thunderstorm coverage.
Temperatures through the holiday weekend will generally remain in
the 80s for maxima (with some low 90s over interior and 70s for
minima. Winds will be noticeably less breezy than last few days.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The drying trend that is forecast to arrive Memorial Day will
continue through much of next week. Although sea-breeze boundaries
and subsequent outflow collisions will still suffice for scattered
afternoon thunderstorms over the interior, the urbanized areas on
each coast will only have slight rain chances through the period.
Temperatures will be near climatological normals for the start of
summer, with highs reaching upper 80s on the east and west coasts,
then low 90s from The Everglades to Lake Okeechobee. Low
temperatures will be in the 70s.
Tropical Depression 2 should not have impact on South Florida`s
waters, as it is expected to move northwest toward South Carolina
and away from South Florida this weekend. East wind averaging 10
knots should prevail into early next week. A few thunderstorms are
possible, especially on Lake Okeechobee in the afternoons,
otherwise benign marine conditions will prevail.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 85 74 86 73 / 30 20 30 10
Fort Lauderdale 86 75 88 75 / 60 20 30 20
Miami 87 75 88 75 / 60 20 40 20
Naples 86 72 88 72 / 50 20 30 20