Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 281324 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
924 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
High pressure over the Southeastern United States will continue to
remain nearly stationary today into tonight, as weak low pressure
remains nearly stationary over the western Caribbean Sea.
This will keep the pressure gradient tight over South Florida
along with northeast wind flow. Therefore, breezy to windy
conditions will continue over South Florida today into tonight.
A weak low level short wave is currently moving southwest across
South Florida this morning which should move into the southern
Gulf Of Mexico this afternoon. This will bring in a little bit
drier air to South Florida this afternoon. Therefore, the pops
have been lower a little bit to slight chance for this afternoon.
The pops will then be raised again for late tonight over the
southern areas of South Florida, as another low level short wave
will be moving southwest from the Atlantic waters across South
Florida. There could even be a few thunderstorms across the
southern areas of South Florida late tonight, as the 500 mb temps
will be cooling down to -9 to -10C. Therefore, isolated thunder
has been added to the forecast for late tonight for the southern
areas of South Florida.
The marine forecast looks on track for today, so no changes to the
marine package. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and
no other changes are planned.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
The breezy east northeast winds around 15 knots with gusts up to
25 knots will continue to affect the South Florida taf sites today
into tonight, except for KAPF taf site where the winds will
decrease to around 10 knots tonight. Most of the taf sites will
continue to see some showers off and on today into tonight, except
for KPBI and KAPF taf sites where they will stay dry for today.
The ceiling and vis should remain in VFR conditions through
tonight outside of any shower moving overhead. When a shower does
move over the taf site, then the MVFR conditions could develop.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)-
Weather pattern consists of surface ridge anchored over the
southeastern United States with general low pressure over the
Carribean. Pressure gradient between these two features will
continue to induce strong east northeasterly winds. This pattern,
which existed much of the week, will continue well into next week.
The main day-to-day weather changes will be regulated by the
amount and depth of generally low-level moisture present. A
reasonably tight moisture gradient will persist over the CWA, as
high pressure will be much more dominant over northern zones. Like
Thursday, majority of precipitation is expected to remain over
Miami-Dade county through the weekend. Through the short term,
expect moisture depth of up to 700mb, create environment favorable
over southern regions for scattered showers and perhaps and
isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly during peak diurnal heating.
Regarding diurnal temperature trends, they will be curbed by the
moisture, Atlantic onshore breezes, and abundant cloud-cover.
Thus, maxima mainly in low to mid 80s will be a degree or two
below normal, with minima mainly in the 70s several degrees above
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)-
Progressive pattern over northern CONUS will bring reinforcing
high pressure surge into Florida for the start of next week. Drier
air will filter into the region, but expect little change in
breezy east/northeast winds or temperatures through midweek.
East wind of 20 to 30 knots will persist on Gulf and Atlantic
waters into the weekend. Mainly wind-induced seas of 5 to 7 feet
will prevail on the Atlantic, higher in the Gulf Stream. These
hazardous conditions warrant the extension of the Small Craft
Advisory into Saturday evening, and this may need to extended
further with time. Scattered showers over mainly southern Atlantic
waters will prevail for next few days, with a rogue thunderstorm
possible over this same area.
Northeast to east northeast winds will continue in the 10 to 15
knot range with higher gusts for the Atlantic coast terminals
nearest the coast and a few knots less for the more inland
terminals. Stratocumulus clouds in the 4 to 6 kft range will
continue to stream across the Atlantic coast terminals early this
morning with passing showers and very brief periods of MVFR
conditions and gusty winds possible with the heavier showers. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out but low confidence.
Terminal KAPF will continue with northeast winds less than 10
knots early this morning with mainly VFR conditions expected
through the early morning hours.
Persistent onshore Atlantic flow will continue into the weekend.
Due to this, there is a high risk for rip currents on Atlantic
beaches through at least Saturday evening. The threat for
significant rip currents will likely continue on the Atlantic
coast into next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 84 79 84 79 / 10 20 20 10
Fort Lauderdale 83 78 83 78 / 10 30 30 20
Miami 84 76 83 77 / 20 40 40 20
Naples 85 73 86 73 / 10 20 20 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ630-650-651-
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ610.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.