Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 270536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...

TARDY ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ACTUALLY GENERATED A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH BROWARD/MIAMI DADE AROUND
0Z. DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH MIA DOWN TO 45F CURRENTLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A COOL START TO THANKSGIVING, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LAMP GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTED MIN TEMPS BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO PROMPT A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO,
AHEAD OF A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS THE MVFR CIGS HAVE EXITED OFF THE
SE FLORIDA COAST AS A DRY, COOL AIRMASS SWEEPS IN ON N-NW WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SUNNY
SKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  53  68  60 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           71  48  67  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



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