Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 210850
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
450 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CUTOFF...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BRINGING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THE GULF COAST...AND DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...AND
PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS MONITORING
THIS AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND STORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
THERE WAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTERACT WITH A FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  71  84  72 /  60  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  83  75 /  60  30  40  30
MIAMI            83  72  84  74 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           82  71  84  70 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI



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