Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 240552
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1252 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KPBI EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
ADDED VCSH FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF. SATELLITE STILL
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS WERE CLEARING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS ALSO SHOWING LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP NEAR KAPF AND THE LAKE REGION...AND THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY THE MORNING. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF SITES IS HOW LOW CIGS GET AND THE DURATION
OF THE LOW CIGS. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND THE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AT KPBI AND KFLL...DID NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC
AS GUIDANCE INDICATED...AND KEPT MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES NEAR DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY MID DAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
RELAX NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO UNDER MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. LATEST GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH CONSENSUS MODELS KEEP THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE THE MITIGATING FACTOR IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM BEING EXCEEDED FOR THE MOST PART.
STILL KEPT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS AFTER 09Z WHICH
AGREES WITH THE LATEST SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES. UPDATED
WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS APPROPRIATELY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED A BIT THIS EVENING...AND NOW SHOULD
AVERAGE 10 KTS UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SE DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT...SSE WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY. GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY
GFS...CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENDED PERIOD (6-18Z MONDAY) OF IFR CIGS
WITH MVFR VSBY FOR ALL TERMINALS. NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS DURING THE PERIOD...AND
CONTINUED VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOST LIKELY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS DURING THE MORNING WILL BE NAPLES. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH. THE LOW WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING OUT ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS AND COULD EVEN SPREAD INTO THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ON THE SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW. THE INTERIOR AREAS COULD EVEN SEE SOME DENSE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...FOG HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL
PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. AT THE SAME
TIME...MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ALSO BE MOVING
WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL GET PULLED UP INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

A MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS MID LEVEL JET
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS ALSO
PUT SOUTH FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND INTO CUBA LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW ALONG WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS WEEK. THE COOLEST MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
THANKSGIVING MORNING WHERE MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE 5 TO 10 MPH OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THANKSGIVING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND 40 OVER THE AREA WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY FROM THE EAST
LEADING TO A THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY NEXT WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS IN BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO BUILD RAPIDLY TO 7 FEET OR HIGHER
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  72  83  70 /  20  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  74  84  73 /  20  20  30  20
MIAMI            86  74  84  72 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           80  70  82  68 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK


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