Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KMFL 071345 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY PUSHING THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND
ALLOW FOR THE SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT FROM
THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT COULD FALL DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS.

THE WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE...EXCEPT FOR
THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. THEREFORE...THE
SCA WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR
BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AN NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATED...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  41  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  44  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            65  45  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-
     172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.