Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 280556
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. SW-W LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER AND THIS WILL DELAY THE SEA BREEZE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
EAST COAST WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME S-SE. TSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ONLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR
KPBI, SO WILL ONLY KEEP VCTS FOR THIS TAF AND KEEP TS MENTION OUT
OF THE REST OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE BROWARD/DADE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LIGHT SSE
WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINS TO PENETRATE INLAND. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS LINING UP WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MIDWAY THROUGH
PALM BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTIES...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GREATEST MOISTURE POOLED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH. SO EXPECTING EITHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...OR INTERACTION BETWEEN
OUTFLOWS INLAND AS THEY MOVE EAST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO BROWARD
MIAMI DADE...CAN`T RULE OUT STORMS BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST LATE DAY. DRIER
AIR HAS MADE BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE REGION.
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NAPLES EARLIER MAY END ACTIVITY THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WITH FLOW VEERED FURTHER TONIGHT...PERHAPS THERE
WILL EVEN BE LESS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WATERS. INTO MONDAY...PWATS
DROP EVEN FURTHER AND MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER....WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO SUPPRESS THE SEA BREEZE AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PERHAPS ONLY TO BROWARD COUNTY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY TO ALLOW MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOUNDARY THEN SLOWS AND
PERHAPS STALLS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  79  91 /  20  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  80  91 /  10  30  30  50
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  30  20  40
NAPLES           76  93  78  91 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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