Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 240749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS, WILL BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED
IFR OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  50  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  90  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI



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