Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 281039
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.MARINE...

SE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE EAST THIS
WEEKEND. WAVES NEAR 5 FEET MAY BE OBSERVED OFF OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY
FRIDAY, THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
REMAINS OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL BE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. THERE IS
ALSO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THESE TWO FEATURES ARE COMBINING TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS AND COMING ONSHORE ON THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY INCREASING
OUR PWAT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE FACT THAT
PWAT`S ONLY GET BACK TO AVERAGE AND WITHOUT ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ONLY TO INCREASE
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN, DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT
DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BUT THE ECMWF HAS PWAT DOWN TO WELL
UNDER THIS VALUE. THERE IS ALSO A SAL EVENT THAT WILL MAKE THE SKY
LOOK RATHER HAZY BOTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD ALSO PLAY
IN THE REDUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
EAST COAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AS A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES/NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT TO OUR EAST
ONLY INDICATES PWAT AROUND THE TYPICAL AVERAGE OF LATE
AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER WHICH IS 1.75 INCHES. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO SHOW A TUTT LIKE LOW FEATURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AROUND TUESDAY SO THIS COULD CREATE SOME STRONGER STORMS BUT
MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  81 /  50  20  40  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  93  82 /  40  20  30   0
MIAMI            90  81  91  81 /  50  20  30   0
NAPLES           92  78  93  77 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....30/KOB


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