Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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548
FXUS62 KMFL 310727
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
327 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Models still in fairly good agreement with the pattern for at
least the next several days. A surface Bermuda high sustains the
east to southeasterly flow in the low low levels, while a 500mb
ridge continues to sit to the northwest. Models are also still
indicating a weak wave at 500mb passing to our south, bringing
some additional moisture and instability to the CWA today. This
will mainly effect additional coverage of showers and storms in
the interior and over the Gulf coast today. Models are showing
500mb temps could be dropping by this afternoon to below -8C.
This, coupled with an upper level low, which may also works its
way over the area, will help to allow any convection to be
somewhat stronger than it has been over the last several days.

This will quickly pass to the west, and somewhat drier air should
move into the area for Monday. However, there will still be ample
moisture in the atmosphere for showers and thunderstorms Monday as
well, just somewhat less in coverage.

Then, by Tuesday, a tropical wave will move to the south of the
area. This will help to increase the sfc wind for the middle of
the week, to around 15kts over the the coastal waters. This will
also bring another influx of moisture to the area, allowing for
another increase in coverage of showers and storms for Tuesday,
and possibly Wednesday. By Thursday, the wave will be past, and a
return to more typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms will
return to the CWA for the end of the week, under a light easterly
flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals with light wind
until the morning hours. Models continue to show an increase in
VCSH as a tropical plume of moisture moves into the area early
between 12z-15z. Therefore, included VCSH for all terminals along
the east coast with more coverage in the interior this afternoon
as convection drifts west.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the
middle of next week. Tuesday and Wednesday will see the wind
increase out of the east, as a tropical wave passes the area to
the south. This will build seas in in the Atlantic to around 3 to
4 feet for the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  91  81  91  81 /  40  10  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  82  90  81 /  40  10  40  40
Miami            90  80  91  81 /  40  10  40  30
Naples           91  76  92  78 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...67/MT



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