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000
FXUS62 KMFL 241839
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS STARTED THIS AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEEN
WELL ON RADAR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD HAS ALSO DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. STILL BELIEVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OFFSET
BY FAIRLY DECENT CAPPING. A FEW MORE DEGREES OF HEATING SHOULD
ERODE CAPPING ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACCOMPANIED BY SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS. MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH
HEATING LOSS. BY SATURDAY A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN A BIG WAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE SURGES TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ANOTHER DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
THE HEELS OF THE FIRST...THIS TIME ACCOMPANIED BY AN H5 LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES
SURGING TO 2+ INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. BY
SATURDAY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 14 TO 18 KNOT RANGE WITH THAT TREND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. BY LATE SATURDAY ATLANTIC
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 6
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM...AND MORE OR LESS REMAIN IN THAT RANGE
INTO MID- WEEK.

FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF WATERS...WINDS IN THE 15 TO 18 KNOT RANGE
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH OFF SHORE SEAS FORECAST TO BE 3 TO
4 FEET WITH THAT RANGE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A PRE-CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD
REACH THE UPPER THIRTIES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY TODAY AND THEN
BY SUNDAY ACROSS GLADES...HENDRY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COLLIER
COUNTY. DEEPER MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN BY EARLY TO
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  72  82 / 10 10 -  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  76  84 / 10 10 -  10
MIAMI            75  87  74  83 / 10 10 -  10
NAPLES           72  91  67  90 / 10 10 -  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB