Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 162350
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
750 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION...
Most of the thunderstorms activity is concentrated to the south
and interior away from most of the east and west coast terminals
at this time. Outflows from the convection could reach MIA and TMB
and possibly produce some brief gusts early this evening. No VCTS
tonight as dry conditions are expected through midday Thursday.
At this point, POPs too low and initiation time too uncertain to
place any SHRA/TSRA for Thursday. Winds will be calm once again
tonight, and then SE 5-10 late Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Active weather with a fairly stagnant pattern for South Florida
for the next several days at least. A Bermuda high is forecast to
keep an easterly to southeasterly flow across the region. With the
flow on the weak side over the peninsula, the sea breezes should
be able to develop each day in the late morning to early
afternoon. This will act as a trigger for typical diurnal showers
and thunderstorms.

Over the weekend, an area of tropical moisture may arrive, helping
to increase the chances of showers and storms across the region,
particularly on Sunday. Southeast Florida should still see most
of the activity be pushed off to the interior and along the Gulf
coast. Beyond Sunday, models are indicating there could be a few
small waves of additional moisture, helping to keep an enhanced
chance of showers and storms into the middle of next week.

MARINE...
A weak east to southeast wind will keep seas running at 1 to 2
feet into the weekend. By Sunday, into the beginning of next week,
the wind is forecast to increase , allowing seas to build to
around 4 feet. Otherwise, typical showers and thunderstorms
continue to be in the forecast through the beginning of next week.

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms developing just west of east coast terminals this
afternoon, should generally remain to the west and spread more
inland as the afternoon wears on. Still, VCTS warranted until
around 21z. VCTS also still possible at Naples a bit later, then
through early evening. Post-sunset, terminals dry until around
midday Thursday. At this point, POPs to low and initiation time
too uncertain to place any SHRA/TSRA for Thursday. Winds will be
onshore at 5-10 mph, calm once again tonight, and then SE 5-10
late Thursday morning.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  94  80  94 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  92  81  92 /  10  20  10  20
Miami            80  93  81  93 /  10  20  20  20
Naples           78  94  78  93 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&




AVIATION...67/MT







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