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000
FXUS62 KMFL 230728
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
328 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure looks to continue to dominate the weather pattern
through the weekend. A

A Bermuda high is forecast to remain in place through Sunday
night. Along with this surface high, there is a high centered
over the region at 500mb. Models are indicating that both the
surface and 500mb highs will begin to weaken on Sunday.

However, even with the highs in place, enough moisture, with
PWATs forecast to rise to just below 2 inches over the western
interior today, and diurnal heating will occur to allow for a
chance of mainly afternoon convection for the next several
afternoons. With the east to southeast flow, the areas with the
best chances will be the Gulf coast, western interior and western
lake regions.

Taking a look at 500mb temperatures, the GFS has -5C to -4C and
the ECMWF is very similar, possibly even slightly warmer at times.
Given this, will keep most of the activity for today as a slight
chance to a chance of showers, with a slight chance
thunderstorms for much of the area west of the southeast metro
area. Beyond today, went ahead and kept scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the interior, but that may also end up being
limited to a slight chance of thunderstorms, if the models
continue to show warm temperatures at 500mb.

For the beginning of the week, both the ECMWF and the GFS have a
500mb trough digging across the eastern US. They also have the
Bermuda high retreating to the east, ahead of a cold front that
will move into the North Florida Sunday night. This front is not
progged to make it too much further then north Central Florida.
It will mainly effect additional moisture and convective activity
south of it. This has caused PoPs to begin to rise Monday and
Tuesday, as the front stalls. Models are showing the front will
dissipate during the middle of the week, as high pressure builds
in from the north, slides east, and takes residence as a
replacement bermuda high by the end of the week. As it does this,
it will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for mainly
the afternoon and early evening hours through the end of next
week.


&&

.MARINE...
A Bermuda high will keep seas smooth to slight through the
weekend. The wind is forecast to continue to be east to southeast
around 10 to 15 kts through the weekend. While the chances of
showers and thunderstorms are lower this weekend, they are still
possible across the coastal waters. The chance of convective
activity will pick up again next week.

With the forecast wind, there is a moderate to high risk of rip
currents for the Atlantic beaches. Given yesterdays observations
of strong rip currents at the east coast beaches, have kept the
high risk of rip statement out through the day today. The wind is
forecast to weaken after today, which should allow for the risk
to drop down to moderate after today.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue tonight with east to southeast winds
across all terminals of 10 knots or less. Winds are then
expected to increase once again out of the southeast with a
few gusts up to 20 knots by the later portion of the day. At
KAPF, a West Coast sea breeze will develop this afternoon
shifting the winds to the Southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  89  79  90  79 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  81  90  81 /  10  10  10  10
Miami            90  80  91  80 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           92  77  91  77 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...67/MT