Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 241900
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
300 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

As of 300 PM EDT...A quieter weather day continues across South
Florida, as the remnant frontal boundary which brought scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms yesterday remains draped across
the Florida Straits. However, lingering low-level moisture and
onshore flow off the Atlantic has allowed for scattered generally
light showers to occur across eastern areas, with the greatest
concentration across Miami-Dade County in vicinity of the
aforementioned frontal boundary. While most of the showers will be
light, a brief heavy downpour cannot be ruled out with a few of the
showers as there is some instability present.

East/northeast winds have been breezy at times as the region remains
under a tight pressure gradient on the southern periphery of strong
high pressure in the western Atlantic basin. Wind gusts will
occasionally reach 25-35 mph at times through the remainder of the
afternoon in eastern areas, and 15-25 mph across western areas. Not
anticipating any short-fused wind advisories as these gusts should
be pretty infrequent and remain generally below 35 mph.

Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies have limited high temperatures
to an extent across eastern areas, generally only in the upper 70s
to near 80, but more clearing further west along the Gulf Coast has
allowed temps to reach into the lower 80s. Tonight will continue to
feature breezy winds and scattered showers for primarily eastern
areas, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to drift away from
the region on Saturday, allowing high pressure to ridge in from the
north, along with slightly drier air. There will still be the
potential for a few showers streaming off the Atlantic along the
east coast, but coverage will be more isolated in nature. Winds will
also gradually subside throughout the weekend as the flow becomes
more easterly. Another weak frontal boundary may move across the
region late Sunday with little impacts expected across the region.

High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 70s/near 80 for
eastern areas and low to mid 80s for western areas, with lows
Saturday night ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Highs Sunday
will generally be in the 80s with lows Sunday night in the 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The long term period will be characterized by an east/southeast flow
regime, with weak upper-level ridging aloft and high pressure at the
surface. An upper-level trough digging through the lower Great Lakes
early next week will help to break down the upper-level ridging
further, allowing the flow to become more southerly. Generally fair
weather can be expected through the period, although a few showers
streaming in off the Atlantic will be possible from time to time
mainly across eastern areas. A dry frontal passage looks possible in
the midweek period, with little changes to sensible weather expected.

With the east/southeasterly flow in place, temperatures will be
above normal for the long term period, with daytime highs well into
the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters
through early Saturday afternoon...

Hazardous marine conditions will continue to affect the local waters
through much of the weekend, as the region remains under a tight
pressure gradient on the southern periphery of strong high pressure
across the western Atlantic basin. East/northeast winds of 20-25
knots, with occasional gusts to 30 knots will continue to prevail
over the Atlantic waters, along with rough seas. While conditions
are forecast to gradually improve over the Gulf waters, small craft
will still need to exercise caution through tonight. Scattered
showers will be possible through tonight mainly over the Atlantic
waters.

Boating conditions will begin to improve early next week as the flow
weakens and shifts to the southeast along with improving seas. For a
more detailed marine forecast, see the Coastal Waters Forecast.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
A High Risk of rip currents will continue for the Atlantic beaches
through the weekend with strong east/northeast onshore flow. The rip
current risk for the Atlantic beaches should begin to decrease by
early next week as the flow weakens and becomes more southeasterly.

Rough and hazardous surf will continue to be possible for Palm Beach
County beaches into early Saturday, with breakers of 5-8 feet
possible. These breakers may lead to minor coastal beach erosion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No major fire weather concerns are anticipated through the weekend,
as relative humidity values are expected to remain above 40 percent
for much of South Florida. However, occasionally breezy
east/northeast flow Saturday and Sunday afternoons along with very
good dispersion may increase localized fire weather risk, especially
in vicinity of ongoing wildfires. Slightly drier air working into
the region on Monday could lead to increased fire weather risk
across much of the interior and Gulf Coast with relative humidity
possibly dipping below 40 percent at times, although wind speeds
should generally be 10 mph or less.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue through the
evening hours for southeastern Florida terminals. Any CIGs below
030 should be isolated and short-lived, with the highest chance of
this happening for Miami-Dade County terminals. After about 08Z,
shower activity should be significantly diminished. Gusty east
winds will continue through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  68  80  67  82 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  70  80  70  81 /  40  20  20  20
Miami            69  81  68  82 /  40  20  20  20
Naples           63  83  63  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...92/IRL
MARINE...92/IRL
AVIATION...98/ABH
BEACH FORECAST...92/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...92/IRL





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