000
FXUS62 KMHX 152335
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
735 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT REMAINING TO
THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SAT...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEAK
SURFACE BASED INVERSION. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH DECOUPLING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME INLAND SECTIONS.
ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO...AS
CURRENT EARLY EVENING TD`S ARE IN THE UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS.
LOWS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 60 FOR SOME INLAND LOCALES WITH UPPER
60S OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST ON
SUN WITH A RETURN TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
AGAIN BUILDING TO 1400 METERS...SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND.
SW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST AND OBX SUN AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES SUN AFTERNOON DUE TO SW FLOW WITH THE RIDGE OFFSHORE. RIDGE
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST SUN WITH
ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL
ACTIVITY. NORTHERN ZONES COULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVER AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT CROSSES SOUTHERN VA...BUT NOT UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SAT...SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH AREA MIDWEEK. GFS IS DEEPER AND SLOWER. HAVE LEANED
AWAY FROM GFS/GFSENS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL GIVE WAY TO AMPLIFICATION
TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WAVE WILL BRING
A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD SEE SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WAVES RIDING ALONG IT
KEEPING CONTINUED POPS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH HIGHEST
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH OVER NORTH
CAROLINA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 125 PM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC.
ANTICIPATE LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MID LEVEL DECK WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN A BIT TOMORROW
YIELDING A MORE GUSTY SW FLOW. DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP YET AGAIN
AROUND 5-6KFT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING A SURFACE FRONT INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MIDWEEK. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE REDUCED THURSDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SAT...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE SE TO SW
WINDS INC A BIT FROM EARLIER TO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS RANGE
2-3 FT IN MEDIUM PERIOD 8-9 SECOND SWELL AND SHOULD PERSIST WITH
THESE VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE
15 KT RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SW GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN WITH
RIDGE OFFSHORE AND WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SW
WINDS WILL INCREASE 10-20 KT SUN AND GUST TO 25 KT LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RESPOND AND INCREASE TO 3-4 FT BY MID MORNING
AND 3-6 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON EVENING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN MONDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER
WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO SOUND
AND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT EFFECT
STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH 6
TO 8 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE THE GRADIENT LOOSEN MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIND SHIFTING TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ135-150-152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...TL/DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...TL/LEP/CGG
MARINE...TL/DAG/CGG