191
FXUS64 KMOB 022344
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Through Thursday night...

02.12Z upper air maps show axis of low pressure trof aligned from
the Appalachians to the eastern Gulf. Water vapor imagery shows
drier air from aloft easing southward into the forecast area.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values though still range 1.7 to 2.0" over
the deep south. A surface front has settled southward and is draped
from the western Carolinas through central AL/MS and back across
northern LA. South of the boundary, weak pre-frontal mesoscale
boundaries are in place which combined with sufficient PWAT`s and
daytime instability (MUCape 2500-3500 J/KG) favors enough support
for isolated to scattered shower/storm development generally
south of the US Hwy 84 corridor the remainder of the afternoon.
This is supported by the latest SREF of the convection allowing
model members. Storm motion generally south to southeast. Risk of
severe weather is low, but a few storms could be strong. The front
settles southward to just off the coast by daybreak Thursday.
Modest PoPs become more aligned southward out over the coastal
waters tonight, along and south of the front. Thursday/Thursday
night expected to be rain-free.

Lows tonight and Thursday night, upper 60`s/lower 70`s interior to
mid 70`s coast. Highs Thursday 90 to 95, but with lowering dewpoints
in the wake of the front, heat index values kept in check at close
to or maybe a few degrees above the daytime highs only.

Rip current risk remains low. /10

Friday through Wednesday...

A complex pattern as we head into the 4th of July holiday weekend.
The upper trof slides east a bit, positioned from off the Mid-
Atlantic coast to across the FL Peninsula Friday while a short
wave upper ridge pokes northward from the western Gulf. Friday
looks to mostly remain rain-free for most of the area. Exception
being, a subtle mid-level impulse dropping southward on the
southwest flank of the upper trof could help to initiate a small
chance of showers and storms southeast of I-65 Friday afternoon.
As we go into the weekend, the global models show the southeast
U.S. upper trof splitting with energy shearing off and translating
westward over the central/northern Gulf while a second wave of
energy lifts north or northeast up along or off the southeast/Mid-
Atlantic coast. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
conducive for some slow tropical development near the southeast
U.S. coast by this weekend while the system drifts northward or
northeastward. There is a medium chance (40%) of development but
lower confidence on where the low will form.

With the Gulf portion of the mid level trof shearing westward, the
chances of showers and storms look to trend higher with each day
Saturday through Monday. Thereafter, modest rain chances look to
continue Tuesday into Wednesday.

Daily highs in the lower/mid 90`s. Overnight lows in the lower/mid
70`s interior to mid/upper 70`s coast.

Rip current risk remains low into the 4th of July weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR flight category prevails across the area through Thursday.
Winds remain generally out of the north near or below 5 knots.
MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Outside of showers and storms, no marine impacts are expected the
next several days. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  94  71  94  74  94  72  92 /  10   0   0  10  10  40  20  50
Pensacola   75  94  75  94  76  93  75  90 /  20   0   0  20  10  40  20  50
Destin      78  95  78  95  79  94  78  91 /  30  10   0  20  20  40  30  50
Evergreen   70  94  69  95  71  95  71  93 /  10   0   0  10   0  20  10  40
Waynesboro  69  92  69  94  71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  30
Camden      68  90  69  93  71  93  71  92 /   0   0   0  10   0  20   0  20
Crestview   71  94  70  95  72  95  71  92 /  10  10   0  30  10  40  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob