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421
FXUS64 KMOB 282102
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...Weak troughing over the
western Gulf lifts northeast and begins to dampen through the near
term, bringing more numerous shower and thunderstorm activity
tonight into Thursday, especially along and southwest of a
Waynesboro, AL to Pensacola, FL line. With PWATs around 2.00 to
2.25 inches, currently expecting heavy rain to be the primary
threat with this round of convection. Localized flooding could
become an issue as most areas are expected to receive around 1 to
3 inches of rain on top of already saturated soils, with locally
higher rainfall amounts possible in areas where training or
backbuilding occurs. Stronger storms could also produce gusty
winds and frequent lightning. In terms of temperatures, with
extensive cloud cover and ample moisture in place, expect
overnight lows tonight to remain mild, in the low to mid 70`s.
Afternoon highs tomorrow only reach the low 80`s, albeit a very
humid low 80`s. /49


.SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Upper level
trough axis will continue to lift northeastward across AL into GA
Thursday night into Friday, as upper level ridging continues to
build westward across the north central Gulf of Mexico. With the
trough axis remaining overhead Thursday night, along with
plentiful deep layer moisture, we will maintain a continued chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the region into the evening
and overnight hours, with POPs generally in the 30-40% range.
Another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
should once again develop near the coast and spread inland during
the day Friday. Precipitable water values should range from around
1.75" and 2" near the immediate coast to as high as 2" to 2.25"
over inland portions of the area, and will once again have to
monitor for locally heavy rainfall and potentially localized
flooding with the stronger storms that develop, particularly where
1" to 2" or greater hourly rainfall rates may materialize. Brief
strong and gusty winds and frequent lightning may accompany the
stronger storms. Showers and storms should quickly diminish with
loss of daytime heating Friday evening, before yet another round
of scattered to numerous showers and storms develop again
Saturday, especially inland where precipitable water values will
be highest. Lows Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights should
range from around 70 to the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper
70s near the immediate coast and beaches. highs Friday and
Saturday should trend into the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. /21


.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...A moist zonal flow pattern
persists into Sunday and Monday as our area remains on the base
of stronger westerlies over the central and eastern CONUS and the
broad upper ridge axis stretched across the Gulf of Mexico. The
typical diurnal pattern of scattered convection developing during
the day, and decreasing in coverage during the evening/overnight
hours. The upper ridge axis may continue to build northward into
our forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. Still enough moisture
and instability may be available to produce isolated to scattered
showers and storms both afternoons, especially along the
seabreeze, but temperatures may otherwise be trending up to around
90 or the lower 90s inland and upper 80s to around 90 near the
coast both days. Lows remain in the 70s. /21

&&

.MARINE...Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and
thunderstorms persist through the remainder of the week, with
convective activity trending downwards over the marine area Friday
night into the weekend as the best forcing aloft lifts to the
northeast. A more summertime pattern then sets up Sunday into next
week as high pressure builds into the central and northern Gulf,
with daily sea/land breezes dominating an otherwise light westerly
flow, and a slight chance for showers and storms over near-shore
waters each day. Waves remain around 2 feet through the period, with
the exception of some up to around 3 feet for coastal and offshore
Alabama waters Thursday night into Friday. /49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  82  73  87 /  50  80  40  60
Pensacola   74  81  75  86 /  60  80  40  50
Destin      76  82  76  86 /  60  80  40  50
Evergreen   71  81  71  86 /  40  80  40  70
Waynesboro  70  82  70  87 /  30  80  40  70
Camden      71  82  71  86 /  30  70  50  70
Crestview   72  82  72  87 /  50  80  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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