Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 291925
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
325 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PVA...AND PLACEMENT OF
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF H3-H2 JET...EXPECT SHOWERS THAT ARE APPROACHING
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THEY QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...SW CT AND MOST
OF LONG ISLAND. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS OVER SE CT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS FALL INTO
40S...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

SHOWERS DEPART AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE
FLOW.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE.

UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S
WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS
LATER AT NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP
THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A
NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING
ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TO THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THIS EVENING.

VFR. SCT SHOWERS OVER ERN PA WILL MOVE INTO THE NYC METRO AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. NOT SEEING ANY
MVFR CONDS WITH THOSE SHOWERS UPSTREAM BUT WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE
IT OUT THIS EVENING.

ESE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO GUST 15-20 KT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE GUSTS COULD LAST LONGER THAN FCST INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL WINDS START TO BACK NE AFTER PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
00Z-01Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
070-110 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
080-140 MAGNETIC THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 15-18 KT COULD CONTINUE UNTIL
ABOUT 00Z-01Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT-SAT EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE
INCREASED TO 5 TO 6 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT.

FOR NOW...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT.

INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON
ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW


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