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000
FXUS61 KOKX 180543
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS NEARBY CELLS COULD
PRODUCE LIFT FROM OUTFLOW. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES...A MAV/MET BLEND USED WHICH YIELDS READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EXCEPT HIGHER IN NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS
COUPLED WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL PRODUCE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT
AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS HINGES ON WHERE EXACTLY BOUNDARY
STALLS. FOR NEW YORK CITY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...FORECAST MODELS
DO INDICATE BETWEEN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. AT THE
COAST...BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST. THE NAM IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE REGION WILL ALSO BE NEAR
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT 250 HPA JET...AND HAVE 40-50 KT
OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. IF WE DO REALIZE THE HIGHER INSTABILITY...HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...GENERALLY USED A MAV/MET BLEND WITH MORE
WEIGHT ON THE MAV NUMBERS. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S...WARMEST IN NE NJ AND NYC.

STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO
WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AND TAKING THE BEST FORCING
WITH IT.

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH WILL THEN
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE HIGH. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 80S.

MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDWEST BECOMES MORE LIKELY STARTING THIS
WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF THOSE SYSTEMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK
EAST...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SFC
INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE TRI-STATE THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A
COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR HZ OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS 9-16Z TIME FRAME...WITH BEST
CHANCE NORTHERN/CT TERMINALS.

HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON - SPECIFYING A 4
HOUR WINDOW WHERE IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD THUNDER WILL BE - SO ONLY HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR PROB30 AT THIS TIME. HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF THEY FORM...SO HAVE GUSTS UP TO 40KT
IN THE PROB30.

STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND 23-02Z FROM W TO E...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS/FOG
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...GIVE WAY TO ESE-SE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT NE KLGA...THEN BECOME SE-S THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. NE WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION EXPECT WINDS
TO GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES EACH DAY AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/3-2/3 AN INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE
QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.25-1.5
INCHES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOW FROM
THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS