Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 280238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PREVIOUS UPDATE CHANGED POPS TO CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NE NJ DUE TO THE LINGERING SHOWERS. WITH RAIN COMING TO AN
END...THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE
CWA.

HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDS EAST.

WEAK WARM ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENS LATE
TONIGHT...TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND OFF
THE CANADIAN MARITIME.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY BUILD WITH A SURFACE HIGH ALSO
BUILDING IN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT TEMPS THE FOCUS FOR WED AND THU. UPR LOW TRACKING SEWD FROM
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES DURING THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
SUPPRESSING HEIGHTS A BIT. THE GFS HAS LATCHED ON WITH A SLIGHTLY
COOLER FCST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE. AS A
RESULT...MADE NO CHANGES ATTM TO TEMPS WED AND THU. HX AT LEAST 95
IN THE CITY BOTH DAYS AND COULD APPROACH 100 NJ ZONES AND SWRN NY
ZONES. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT GETS HERE THU NGT AND
ENDS FRI PER THE GFS AND ECMWF. SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS
SOLN. FAIR WX RETURNS LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF
HIPRES SETTLES IN AGAIN. MOST OF THE SHRTWV ENERGY REMAINS ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE ONGOING FCST.
THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYS AND UPR TROF PROGGED FOR SUN NGT AND
MON. ONLY SCHC POPS FOR THIS AS AGAIN MOST OF THE FORCING COULD BE
N OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAINLY VFR AS EARLIER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ENDED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY
OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO TERMINALS.

VFR TUESDAY.

WINDS LIGHTEN FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
IN THE MORNING GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZES BY AFTERNOON
TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. 5-6SM HAZE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. SW WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. TSRA POSSIBLE THU AFTN/EVE.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS WED-SAT. EXCEPTION COULD BE
THE WRN OCEAN INVOF THE HARBOR ENTRANCE WITH AN ENHANCED SLY FLOW
LATE WED AND WED NGT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT-MON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 29 2015...

LOCATION..........RECORD HIGH/YEAR.........FORECAST HIGH
NEWARK....................100/1949.................97
BRIDGEPORT.................96/2002.................91
CENTRAL PARK...............99/1949.................95
LA GUARDIA.................97/1949.................97
J F KENNEDY................99/2002.................92
ISLIP......................96/2002.................93

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
CLIMATE...



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