Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 312346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FRONT...SO EXPECTING A DRY
FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL DROP A BIT...GENERALLY FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
NYC.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SETOFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95
DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF LATE TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS AT 10KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS PROBABLY OCCURS BEFORE A SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH LATE TUES
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN.

   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


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