Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 022129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
529 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT A WEAKLY SHEARED/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.

A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN PA LATE THIS AFT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EAST AND REACH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY AROUND 8 PM...NYC METRO
10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN LI/SE CT 2 TO 5 AM. THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HOWERVER...AIRMASS
WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN
ADDITION...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET PASS
PRIMARILY NW OF THE AREA...PERHAPS CLIPPING NW PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...PRIMARILY FORECASTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION...BUT A STORM MOTION AROUND 30
KT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOODING TO THE MINOR NUISANCE VARIETY. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO AROUND 70 NYC
METRO.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISO/SCT TSTMS
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. MOST LIKELY
THOUGH IN THE TIME WINDOW OF 02-04Z NEAR THE CITY TERMINALS AND
KSWF WHERE THERE IS A ONE HOUR TEMPO FOR -TSRA WITH EXPECTING SOME
LOSS OF INTENSITY WHEN THEY ARRIVE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
A S-SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT INTO EARLY EVE
BECOMES MORE W-NW LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SAME
SUSTAINED SPEEDS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL INTO EARLY
EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS COULD BE MORE OCCASIONAL INTO EARLY
EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR FROM TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO
FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR TEMPO
FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT 4-5 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. UNDERCUT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT...KEEPING
SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW








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