Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 092353
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
653 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...AND
THEN PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BANDS OF SNOW SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS NJ. SUBSIDENCE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. DO NOT THINK THERE
WILL BE MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING AS THIS SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD HOLD IN TACT. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER LIFT.

HOWEVER...LATEST MESOSCALE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH MUCH OF THE
BEST BANDING POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH. 18Z GFS HAS SHIFTED ITS
HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE GFS STILL HAS A
FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX AT H5 SWINGING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN
COMBINATION WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SNOWFALL IF THIS
WERE TO VERIFY. THE 18Z 12-KM NAM HAS THIS VORT MAX A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH...WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE.
THE 18Z HIRES NAM SHOWS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW BANDS AROUND
DAY BREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE H5 VORT MAX IS
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS ONLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE. WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT. DO NOT WANT TO CANCEL THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE AND
COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE IF SNOW BANDS ARE TO
DEVELOP. THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDELY VARIABLE...WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE ADVISORY NOT GETTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN
INCH OF SNOW. IT IS ALL GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BANDS
SET UP.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IF
HEAVIER...CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S INLAND TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANY SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 40 IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING
SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN
FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
-25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT
STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND
IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL
LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN.

AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH
SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS
MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO
THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND ENTER THE
REGION TONIGHT...MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BECOME
MVFR AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SNOW BECOMES STEADY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR IN HEAVIER BANDS. THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NYC
AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

WINDS E AROUND 5 KT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY.


   ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 00Z. STEADIER SNOW AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY BE
LATER THAN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 00Z. STEADIER SNOW AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY
BE LATER THAN FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH STEADIER SNOW AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH STEADIER SNOW AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LATER THAN
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST...LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT BEFORE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW MOVES IN AFTER 02Z...POSSIBLY LATER.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST...LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS 2000 TO 2500 FT BEFORE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
MOVES IN AFTER 03Z...POSSIBLY LATER.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT.
.THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON THE WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

SCA CONDS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS
TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL
HOIST SCA FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU WITH A
STRONG NW GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH
SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS.

LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NY
HARBOR...COASTAL NE NJ AND WESTERN LI SOUND WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SURGE LOWERS FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES
OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS HIGH
TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI.

SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SO BEACH IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS:

STATION.........RECORD MINIMUM.............RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
                   FOR 2/14                     FOR 2/14

NYC.................2 (1916)....................17 (1979)....
LGA.................1 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
JFK.................4 (1979)....................17 (1979)....
ISP.................7 (2015)....................26 (1987)....
EWR.................0 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
BDR.................3 (2015*)...................18 (1979)....

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ009.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ078>081-177-179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ069>075-176-178.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-
     075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ074-075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-
     106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...


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