Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KOKX 250010
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
810 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS COULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...LEADING TO PATCHY FROST
FORMATION IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY.
ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY
DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND PASS
TO THE SOUTH ON SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT NIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS. BKN VFR CIGS OVER MOST OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALLOWED WINDS IN NYC METRO TO GO E-NE
EARLIER. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK NW TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH DISSIPATES AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE...NW FLOW
UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND OR
JUST OVER 10 KT...AND THEN BACK WSW DURING MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 20 KT AS THE WINDS BACK WSW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G30 KT
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVE...WITH SEAS AND
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL ADJUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
START A BIT EARLIER FOR ALL WATERS STARTING SAT EVENING AT
MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/NV
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.