Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 260952 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS FROM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST THIS MORNING TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH ON SATURDAY....FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

LATEST PRESSURE FALLS AND CONSENSUS OF ZERO MODEL GUIDANCE NOW
BRING A COASTAL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THIS
EVENING ON AVERAGE BY ABOUT 75 TO 100 MILES. THIS SHIFT IN THE
TRACK WESTWARD WILL SLOW THE RATE AT WHICH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...AS IT WILL
TAKE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LONGER TO GO NORTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.

NOTE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION STILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50..EXCEPT AROUND 40 ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF COOLING THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE TO GET TO ALL
SNOW...AND WITH THE DELAY IN WINDS GOING NORTHERLY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE TRI-STATE...THIS WILL TAKE LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

THE RESULT IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE FOR A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN TO START OVER COASTAL AND EASTERN
AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR A POCKET OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR FROM 800 TO 650 HPA TO PUSH
INTO ROUGHLY THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SOME SLEET AS
WELL.

AREAS ROUGHLY N/W OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT WILL SEE A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON. INTERIOR SW CT COULD SEE SOME SLEET MIX IN AS WELL.
STILL EXPECTING 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA...EXCEPT 4-8
INCHES STILL ACROSS INTERIOR W CT.

AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH COASTAL SW CT...INCLUDING
ALL OF UNION COUNTY AND NORTHERN QUEENS/MANHATTAN/THE BRONX IN
NYC...AND INTERIOR SE CT SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
1 TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE REST OF
NYC...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THIS MORNING...MIXING WITH SLEET AND SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS AREA...WITH
MOST OF LONG ISLAND RECEIVING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS OFF TO THE NE. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
QPF AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

WITH A 45-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND COASTAL SE CT...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR S NEW LONDON
AND E SUFFOLK COUNTIES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH EXPECTED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS
GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH
A LINGERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER ISOLD
-SHRA/-SHSN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ALL CONTROLLED BY THE VORTEX SPINNING JUST N OF
HUDSON BAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

NOT TOO MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS/LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.

COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES THU NIGHT AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SAT...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING SOME
LIFT QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE`LL REMAIN WARM SECTORED INTO SUN
WITH WAA ENSUING. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL SAT...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS ARE NOW A
BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EC...SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE
POPS. TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FROPA ALSO IS APPARENT...THE GFS/CMC
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC. THE BIG CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUNS IS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLES BUILDING HIGH PRES IN FROM THE N QUICKER...SUPPRESSING
THE FRONT WELL TO THE S WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT TODAY***

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS MORNING DETERIORATE. RAIN MOVES IN
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THEN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON AIRPORT LOCATIONS. IN
GENERAL...MAINLY EXPECT RAIN FOR JFK EASTWARD INCLUDING ISP AND GON
TODAY. A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THIS
MORNING...AFTER 15-16Z...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT OCCURS
TONIGHT.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS 1-3 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...2 TO 5 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1
INCH OR LESS KISP/KGON.

WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...AND PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE LIGHTENING AS THEY TURN TOWARD THE NW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 18-20Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND OR LESS THAN AN
INCH EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 18-20Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITIONS TO
A WINTRY MIX BY NOON. RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 3 INCHES BY EVENING.
STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 18-20Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITIONS TO
A WINTRY MIX BY NOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 4 INCHES BY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 18-20Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING TRANSITIONS TO
A WINTRY MIX BY NOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE. RUNWAY
ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES BY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS AFTER
18-20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MAINLY RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 18-20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...

.TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM
AROUND 950 TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST
GALE GUSTS AS A RESULT. BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING TO COVER ALL WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON
ANZ-350 UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE PRESENT ON ALL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END.

SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SCA SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THU NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRI. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD COME CLOSE SUN/SUN
NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SEAS COULD REACH MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FROM 1 1/8 TO 1 2/3 INCHES OF QPF...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY W/N OF
I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT...LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON E THERE WILL BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

VERY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-176.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MALOIT/24
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/24






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