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000
FXUS61 KOKX 261401
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1001 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY NIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD
FRONT...LIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES ACROSS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MID-DECK AND SCATTERED
SPRINKLES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
LI/CT TOWARDS MIDDAY WITH A BIT OF COINCIDENT INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
EWD TODAY WITH A MEAN TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT. ENVIRONMENT
DOESN`T LOOK GREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN WAKE
OF SHORTWAVE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN PA WORKING INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
REGION LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY EVE.

A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WAA REGIME
WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THIS MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND LIFTS THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
90KT H250 JET WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHC`S OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. UNCERTAINTY IN POPS AND
SKY BEHIND THE WARM FROPA. IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WE`LL WARM UP FAST AND COULD HIT 90 IN METRO NY/NJ. ANY SUN WILL
ALSO RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTN AND COULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD REACH SVR LIMITS. MUGGY
CONDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE AND PERSIST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME MON NIGHT.

THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING WITH THE FOCUS TURNING
TO A WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND PIVOTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MON.
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NJ SUN NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE
PARENT LOW IN CONTROL FURTHER N AND W. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE
FROM CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM
SHEAR)...APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE...400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM
HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER IF THIS SECONDARY LOW DOES
NOT DEVELOP THE MOST SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER N AND W.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...STILL SOME FAIRLY BIG UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF
AN IMPACT THIS WILL BE...BUT SINCE THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SVR WX
HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE FORECAST SUN AFTN AND NIGHT.
PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AT THE SFC. SCHC/CHC SHRA/TSTMS MON
NIGHT/TUE AS A RESULT. WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLITUDE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD/LIKELY ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH 10 TO
15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER GUSTS WILL NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST. WINDS LIGHTEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS LATER
TONIGHT. SUB VFR POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
.TUE-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS
INCREASE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD AS A RESULT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN RATHER ROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS.

WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND SPEEDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHER PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...