Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 230219
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
919 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure north of the region tonight will slides east
early Friday morning. Another wave of low pressure moves across
the region Friday and Friday night. A warm front moves north
Saturday night into Sunday, and a cold front passes late Sunday.
High pressure builds early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Any pcpn has ended across the region. The fcst has been updated
accordingly. The clearing line was invof the Mass Pike. With
wly flow progged at the 6k ft moist layer, and moist enely flow
at the llvls, mainly ovc skies are expected for most of the ngt.
If the cloud cover erosion bleeds swd into the cwa, this
gradient zone will be a prime spot for fzfg. Temps will fall
into the upper 20s and lower to mid 30s.

The storm total rainfall graphic has been updated to represent
pcpn expected Fri.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Next focus of attention is another wave of low pressure which
moves across the region Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

Precipitation spreads from west to east Friday morning, with
all areas seeing PCPN during the afternoon. 12Z Thermal profiles
support rain for the most part, however there is a chance that
western Orange County can pick up a couple hours of freezing
rain. A lot of this will depend on the timing of the
precipitation moving into the area. If the precip moves in
slightly faster than forecast, there will be a greater threat
for freezing rain. If the precipitation holds off til mid to
late morning, there is a chance that surface temperatures could
reach freezing, lowering the threat of freezing rain. Right now
do not have the confidence and coverage to go with an advisory,
and will let subsequent shifts assess trends and issue any as
needed.

Temperatures are then forecast to warm enough for all rain by
afternoon. Rain continues in the evening, with drier weather
expected for Friday night. With a frontal boundary remaining
near the region Friday night, will leave at least a slight
chance of rain showers in the forecast, along with the potential
for some patchy fog.

Highs on Friday climb into the upper 30s and lower to mid 40s,
with temperatures only falling a few degrees for Friday nights
lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front moves north toward the area Saturday night into Sunday.
Showers are possible during the day on Saturday with temperatures in
the low 50s. Low pressure will track northeastward across the upper
Great Lakes on Sunday while its associated cold front is expected to
move through the area on Sunday. This will result in rain chances
across the entire region with less than three quarters of an inch of
precipitation. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

High pressure then builds Monday through Wednesday, with dry
conditions expected through the middle of the week. A low pressure
system approaches the area Thursday.

Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lows in
the low to mid 30s Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong high pressure builds to the north, then shifts off the
Northeast coast on Friday as another wave of low pressure
approaches from the west.

Mainly MVFR conditions expected overnight, with IFR at KISP.
The timing of the redevelopment of IFR conditions is less
certain at KSWF, KBDR and KGON, where VFR conditions may be
possible through around 05Z.

IFR then develops across all the terminals by late Friday
morning as light rain moves back into the region, with light
freezing rain beginning at KSWF. Conditions then deteriorate
through the day with IFR-LIFR prevailing in rain.

NE-E wind 10 kt or less tonight becoming E to SE Friday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Sat...CHC MVFR and rain.
.Sun...MVFR/IFR in rain. S winds G20 KT.
.Mon...VFR. W winds G20 KT.
.Tuesday...VFR. WNW winds G20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean waters through
Friday morning as easterly winds gust around 25 kt while
building seas up to 5-6 feet. Rest of the water should remain
below advisory criteria. Winds and seas fall below SCA criteria
Friday afternoon and remain that way through Friday night.

Tranquil winds and seas are forecast Saturday. Easterly winds
increase Saturday night ahead of the warm front and low pressure
center. A period of small craft advisory condition winds and rough
ocean seas are possible during this time. The winds shift around to
the west behind the front Sunday night and Monday. Rough ocean seas
will gradually subside as high pressure builds across the area
waters on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week with
rainfall amounts generally ranging from a half an inch to three
quarters of an inch.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Fig
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...MD/19
MARINE...BC/Fig
HYDROLOGY...BC/Fig
EQUIPMENT...


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