Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 151944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in tonight and shifts offshore on
Saturday. A cold front then approaches Saturday night and passes
through during Sunday. Low pressure over NE Canada on Monday will
bring a cold front late Monday followed by high pressure Monday
night into Tuesday. Another low passes north Wednesday with
Canadian high pressure building in on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Weak high pressure builds in tonight with a zonal flow aloft. Fewer
clouds around overnight versus this evening, which would promote
some radiational cooling as winds become light to calm. NBM looked
reasonable for temperatures, even for spots that are more prone to
radiational cooling since the magnitude of the cooling is uncertain.
Low temperatures about 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Slight deep-layered ridging occurs Saturday morning, with the
surface ridge axis shifting to our east late in the day into the
evening. Dry with mostly sunny conditions for Saturday. A cold front
then approaches Saturday night and passes through during Sunday
morning. The best combination of lift from the front and available
moisture will be over the northern zones, but thinking is at least a
slight chance of showers will exist everywhere. Chances of showers
begin late at night over the western zones and exit the eastern
zones by noon on Sunday. High temperatures both days this weekend
remaining above normal, mostly in the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light west to northwest flow stays in place Sunday night into Monday
morning following the cold frontal passage earlier on Sunday. A weak
front may pass Sunday night, but will be too dry with little
forcing, so not much change expected with this.

Cold air advection aloft with a deepening 520dam trough Monday into
Tuesday will lead to cooler temperatures. Highs Monday will be near
50 to the mid-40s, then down to the mid/low-40s on Tuesday. Lows
Sunday night will be in the mid/upper-30s then in the low-30s to
upper-20s Monday night.

Late Monday a stronger cold front will pass, but very little
moisture is associated with it with PWATs remaining below average
with its passing. If anything occurs, it will likely be an isolated
rain/snow shower for the interior Hudson Valley.

Winds pick up following the FROPA late Monday, with  high pressure
building in following the FROPA into Tuesday. At the same time, a
low will pass offshore to the east late Monday into Tuesday. The
increasing pressure gradient will lead to peak west to northwest
wind gusts 25-30 mph during the day on Tuesday.

A clipper low develops west of us on Tuesday and passes to our north
on Wednesday. If it passes in close enough proximity, a few snow
showers may be possible for interior locations. Dry air, however,
still looks pretty entrenched in the area during this time frame, so
have only kept a low-end slight chance in the forecast for this
occurring.

Heights rise and become zonal Wednesday into Thursday with Canadian
surface high pressure nosing in on Thursday. Temperatures look to
gradually warm in response with highs Wednesday in the mid/upper-40s
then back into the upper-40s to low-50s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Following a cold frontal passage this afternoon, high pressure
will build in from the west into tonight. The high passes south
of the terminals on Saturday.

VFR. Winds vary between WNW to N at 10-15G20-25kt for the
remainder of this afternoon, and will become northerly at all
terminals this evening. Winds will also diminish to under 10 kt
as the evening progresses. Some locations will go light and
variable overnight or become light WNW, before increasing after
12Z Sat to 7 to 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible as winds shift to the north and
diminish this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. Afternoon seabreeze enhancement may increase S
winds at KJFK to 15-20kt. A bit weaker for KLGA.

Sunday: Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions possible,
mainly at KSWF in the morning. SW winds 10-15G20kt in the
morning, becoming W 15G20-25kt in the afternoon, then
diminishing at night.

Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening

Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions expected to prevail tonight through
Saturday, however there could be a few gusts to 25k t on the ocean
west of Fire Island Inlet in the afternoon due to a developing
seabreeze circulation. Winds then pick up Saturday night ahead of a
cold front. Marginal SCA conds develop at least on the ocean late at
night. Being a marginal late 3rd period event, have decided to hold
off on issuing a SCA for the time being. Better chances for advisory
conditions will be on Sunday on ocean, mainly for seas.

SCA cond likely on most if not all waters from late day Mon into Tue
evening with and following a cold frontal passage, with NW flow
gusting up to 30 kt on the ocean and 25 kt elsewhere. With offshore
flow ocean seas should get no higher than 4-6 ft. Minimal SCA cond
should linger on the ocean into the rest of Tue night, falling below
SCA cond Wednesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today through late next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BR
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/BR
HYDROLOGY...JC/BR


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