040
FXUS65 KPIH 060443
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1043 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms across our northern areas
  today.

- Cooler temperatures Saturday and Sunday with highs only in
  the 70s and 80s.

- Very dry conditions are expected to return by Sunday and
  continue through next week with an overall warming trend as
  well. Temperatures will return to the 90s and even approaching
  100 for lower elevations by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows some CU development across the
eastern highlands and up towards the Island Park area. These have
been producing some thunderstorms but generally after the activity
leaves Idaho and pushes into Montana and WYoming. That being said,
can`t rule some isolated showers/storms in this area over the next
few hours while the rest of the region is expected to remain dry as
a prolonged period of high pressure begins to settle over the area.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will climb into the low to mid 80s
across the lower elevations with mostly sunny skies expected for the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The work week starts off much like the weekend ended with high
pressure in firm control of weather across eastern Idaho. As H5
heights continue to rise for the first part of the week, so do the
temperatures with 90s expected to return as early as Monday for some
spots, namely the lower Snake and Magic Valley. Tuesday and
Wednesday will be very hot with mid to upper 90s appearing likely
for the lower elevations with very few clouds and no precipitation
chances expected. Late Wednesday, and more so on Thursday, an upper
trough looks to move through the region and this will help lower our
temps a touch, although still above normal, for Thursday and Friday
and maybe spark a very isolated high elevation shower/storm but it
doe s look like things will remain dry. It will however increase
winds over the area as the pressure gradient tightens thus
potentially creating some fire weather concerns. This will be
something to monitor over the days ahead. Otherwise, the pattern
looks pretty bleak for any rain makers across the region. Summer is
in full swing across the Gem State.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

There are
FEW-SCT mid-level clouds or just under that altitude for
everywhere but KSUN, where it will be SKC through out. By 06/10Z
all skies should be SKC. Wind will be less gusty Sun, with KIDA
and KBYI seeing variable wind until mid-afternoon on Sun. No
afternoon/evening TSRA expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Residual moisture from the storm activity over the last several days
is generating isolated shower and thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. This activity should remain largely across zone
411 and the northern portions of zones 475, 476, 410 and 413. As
we`ve seen with the last few days, some of the stronger showers and
thunderstorms could have some brief gusty and erratic winds. Latest
HREF and HRRR guidance favoring the bulk of the thunderstorm
activity along the ID/Mt divide near I-15 this afternoon, coincident
with peak wind gusts swaths of 30-40 mph east through the Targhee
Pass area. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, some enhanced wind
gust of 20-35 mph could be felt through Snake Plain - zone 410 and
the northern half of zone 425. Min RH values likely bottom out in
the upper teens this evening, but should remain isolated enough to
not necessitate Fire Weather headlines.

Sunday through Tuesday, we`ll begin to see temperatures creep higher
each day as high pressure settles into the area. The forecast is dry
under mostly clear sky conditions. With daily high temperatures
increasing daily, we`ll begin to see RH values crater to below
critical thresholds each afternoon/evening. Winds, however, should
remain rather light - below critical thresholds over the next three
days. The next Fire Weather issue could arise Wednesday as the
pressure gradient begins to tighten with a Pacific trough nudging
inland pulling a little moisture along with it. This will help knock
temperatures back a few degrees and bump up RHs slightly.
TAX

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...TAX