-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 221842
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
241 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will shift eastward through the region
today, before pushing to our east and offshore by early evening.
High pressure will build overhead this evening through Tuesday, then
shift to our southeast. The resulting southwest flow will bring
warming temperatures through mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Monday...

Improving conditions expected today, after a chilly and rainy
Sunday. The morning surface analysis shows the front well to our SE,
with high pressure over the lower Miss Valley building eastward,
resulting in a low level NE flow over our area. This is topped by a
potent shortwave trough shifting E over the area, noted in WV
imagery and UA analyses, and radar continues to show light returns
over our eastern sections. But given the dry low level flow, cloud
bases are fairly high, and very little to none of these returns are
reaching the ground. This activity will continue to push eastward
with the mid level shortwave trough through early to mid afternoon,
and skies should gradually clear out as deep subsidence takes over.
The low level CAA and thicknesses that are ~30 m below normal will
result in a cool day, with highs 60-65 under increasing sunshine
throughout the day. -GIH


Earlier discussion from 240 AM: Cloudiness will give way to mostly
sunny skies, cool temperatures. Patchy light frost possible tonight
in the normally colder areas of the Piedmont.

A strong upper level disturbance will push east across the region
this morning. There will be considerable cloudiness early and
possibly some sprinkles; otherwise, skies will become mostly sunny
as the base of the trough axis moves east this afternoon. Highs will
be cool, ranging in the lower to mid 60s.

Tonight, high pressure will be over the Appalachians early shifting
over the western and southern Piedmont tonight. Expect clear skies
and light wind with excellent radiational cooling. Lows 35-40
expected with 33-34 in some of the colder spots of the Piedmont.
Some patchy light frost will be possible in these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Monday...

Central NC will be under the influence of shortwave ridging on
Tuesday between a closed mid/upper low moving NE in the western
Atlantic and a northern stream shortwave diving down into the Upper
Great Lakes. So height rises and subsidence will keep us dry and
sunny. At the surface, ~1025 mb high pressure centered over GA and
the Carolinas on Tuesday morning will shift SE and offshore in the
afternoon. This will shift the low-level flow to a southwesterly
direction, helping bring 1000-850 mb thicknesses 20-30 m higher than
today, supporting warmer high temperatures mainly in the lower-70s.
This is still about 1-3 degrees below normal.

Lows on Tuesday night will be near normal in the SE and slightly
above normal in the NW, where mid and high clouds will be on the
increase in advance of the aforementioned northern stream shortwave
that will be moving into the OH Valley and Appalachians. This will
make for fairly uniform lows in the upper-40s to lower-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 241 PM Monday...

An upper level trough will swing across the Northeast Wednesday
morning followed by a weak shortwave swinging across the northern
Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday night. By Friday, upper level ridging
will take over through the weekend  resulting in fair weather for
the latter half of the long term period. At the surface, a low
pressure system centered over the southern portions of Quebec early
Wednesday morning will trail a cold front south along the
Appalachian Mountains. While showers will be persistent west and
north of the mountains latest model guidance is showing much of the
forcing loosing energy east of the mountain range thus limiting the
chance for rain across Central NC. Expect some passing sprinkles
Wednesday afternoon as the front moves across the region. As the
front moves offshore overnight, a cool dry high pressure will build
into the region with northeasterly winds taking over. If conditions
clear out early enough Thursday morning, light NE winds could help
result in some patchy fog across portions of the NE Piedmont and
Coastal Plain. Thursday and Friday are expected to be fair weather
days with mostly sunny skies and temps in the upper 60s north, to
low/mid 70s across the south. As high pressure and upper level
ridging strengthens across our region over the weekend and early
next week temperatures are expected to increase quickly with highs
in the mid/upper 70s Saturday, low to mid 80s Sunday, then by Monday
mid 80s across the entire region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Monday...

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail across central
NC for the next 24 hours, as we remain under a ridge of high
pressure. Scattered to briefly broken stratocu currently over the
area will diminish toward nightfall, with generally clear skies
through Tue. Surface winds from the N or NE will be mostly under 10
kts then diminish to light toward sunset.

Looking beyond 18z Tue, while a few light showers or sprinkles are
possible Wed with passage of an upper level disturbance and surface
cold front, we will otherwise be under high pressure, with VFR
conditions holding through Sat. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Badgett
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield