367
FXUS61 KRLX 120249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1049 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new
work week amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1040 PM Saturday...

Valley fog has started to develop across the southern and
eastern portion of the CWA. This trend continues throughout the
night, but current thinking is that fog should be a bit less
widespread as compared to last night given slightly more
turbulent boundary layer flow. Nevertheless, patchy dense fog
remains possible in spots. Lows will be on the chilly side
overnight: upper 30s and 40s for the lowlands, while mid 30s to
40 in the mountains.

As of 800 PM Saturday...

The forecast remains on track, with the cold front exiting the
far eastern portion of the CWA currently. Any strong/severe
threat has ended, with just a few isolated showers possible
over the next couple hours.

As of 450 PM Saturday...

Modest destabilization following a band of prefrontal showers
and isolated thunderstorms earlier today has allowed SCT strong
thunderstorms to form along a cold front that is rapidly
sweeping through the region. Gusty winds and hail continue to be
the main threats, generally of the sub-severe variety. An
isolated severe storm does remain possible, however, over the
next couple of hours across north central and northeast WV.
Given some weak rotation with a cell or two this afternoon, a
highly isolated and brief spin up cannot entirely be ruled out.
The aforementioned surface cold front quickly shifts east of the
area by 8 PM, ending the threat for any strong to severe
thunderstorms. Have updated temperatures, PoPs, and cloud
cover through the evening to represent the latest trends. The
rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 138 PM Saturday...

Cold front exits east of the Appalachians early this evening, taking
most of the convection with it. Lingering light showers are possible
behind the front, mainly higher elevations through at least
midnight. Behind the front, winds shift from the west northwest
remaining gusty through early evening, but subsiding later
tonight for most locations outside of the mountains. Much drier
airmass filters in behind the front providing mostly clear skies
late tonight through Sunday.

River valley fog will be possible once again overnight tonight
into early Sunday morning. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail
through the end of period.

Slightly below normal temperatures expected tonight, generally in
the upper to mid 40s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper
30s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 142 PM Saturday...

Monday looks to be mainly dry and warm with high pressure, surface
and aloft in control. There will be the possibility for isolated
showers or storms as the day progresses, and a weak shortwave,
combined with daytime heating affects the area out ahead of the main
system. Chances for showers and storms increase Monday night into
Tuesday as a low in the southern stream forms, and eventually opens
into a wave as it moves across our area. We look to get a period of
decent/soaking rain, but overall, it looks like the axis of greater
moisture/precipitation should remain generally to the south and east
of our area, thus mitigating much in the way of anything other than
localized water issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1212 PM Saturday...

Active weather will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as
aforementioned wave moves east of the area. A brief break in the
precipitation is possible around Thursday as high pressure builds
into the area, however, another low in the southern stream is
expected to affect us once again towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM Saturday...

Dry conditions prevail tonight and Sunday courtesy of high
pressure. Some valley fog development will occur later tonight,
but should be less widespread than last night. Nevertheless,
some MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY restrictions are anticipated,
particularly at CKB/CRW/EKN. Fog lifts/dissipates by ~ 12-13Z
on Sunday, giving way to a mostly sunny day amid a bit of
diurnal Cu.

Breezy WNW flow this evening transitions to light W/WSW flow
later tonight, even going calm in some locations. WNW flow is
expected on Sunday. Gusts of 15-20 kts are possible beginning
late morning into the evening, especially in/near the higher
terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight, high Sunday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, coverage, and intensity of fog
overnight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 05/12/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW