Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 241953
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH COMING THROUGH MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
TODAY...WILL PIVOT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...MOVING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM...BUT ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. FYI...THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS WILL END SATURDAY. UNTIL THE GROWING
SEASON BEGINS NEXT SPRING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FROST
ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE RNK MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS
TYPICAL WITH DRY FALL FRONTS...BREEZY/GUSTS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT WHILE
RIDGES REMAIN MILD NEAR 40F. IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
WHILE 70S ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A DRY CLIPPER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW AND NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH A MOIST WEST
WIND...CLOUDS WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST WESTERN SLOPES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...WILL HAVE DRIZZLE AS THE PRIMARY P-TYPE AND REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVANCE TO
THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO A
RELATIVE DRY AIR...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE
EAST OF RNK EXTREME WESTERN SLOPES. DRY FALL FRONTAL PASSAGES
TYPICAL RESULT IN BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS SEEING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE WINDS TO RELAX THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM
FRONT.

DESPITE A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS TO THE MID 70S EAST. THE PASSING OF A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...70S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
FOR ONE MORE DAY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE GENEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD SLOW DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

SURPRISINGLY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 12Z GFS WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WHEN THE TYPICAL BIAS
BETWEEN THESE MODELS IS THE OTHER WAY. THEY EVENTUALLY AGREE ON
STALLING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER
AND IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A
FLATTER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1209 PM EDT FRIDAY...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDER 10KTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES BECOME CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT BLF
AND LWB...NONE ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG SATURDAY WILL DISSIPATE BY 10A. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW-END MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
(BLF-LWB) TO HIGH-END MVFR AT BCB AS A CLIPPER FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA-LYH-DAN) WILL REMAIN
VFR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR ALL SITES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ011>017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ044-507.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...RCS



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