Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 241145
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
TRENDING WARMER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. THIS
FEATURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM A FEW CU DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER...UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW...MAINLY IN THE 40S...THUS
SUPPORTING HUMIDITY MINIMUMS NEAR 30 PERCENT DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ON MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WHILE YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING WILL KEEP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE ON TUESDAY...
GRADUALLY EXPOSING THE MID ATLANTIC TO BETTER CHANCES OF DAYTIME
HEATING-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE MAKES ITS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH
PWATS RISING INTO THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE.

ON TUESDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...MAKING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE SHIFTED AWAY
FROM OUR AREA...ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO EVEN CLOSER AND FURTHER
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA TO
INCLUDE THE PIEDMONT. CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EITHER DAY...BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER.

WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN TO OUR AREA...WE CAN DEFINITELY EXPECT
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. ALOFT...LONG RANGE MODELS
TAKE A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST LATE IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...AS A NOSE OF 16+C 850MB TEMPS NOSES INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SUNDAY...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ASIDE FOR
FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU DURING THE AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE (HIGHER DEWPOINTS) INTO THE
MOUNTAINS FOR MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRENDING WARMER.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY.

ASIDE FROM THE AFTERNOON SHOWER THREAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT COVERAGE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PH
AVIATION...PM


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