Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 190450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1150 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

A warm front will move north into the southeast tonight into
Monday bringing another shot of rain to the area. Afterwards, a
strong ridge will set up off the southeast coast providing much
above normal temperatures through much of the week.


As of 635 PM EST Sunday...

An adjustment for our forecast tonight will be a slowing of the
onset time of precipitation reaching the southwest portion of
the area. Latest guidance is offering solutions averaging about
three hours later than our current forecast advertises. Given
fairly consistent trends within the models, our forecast will
be adjusted accordingly. Measurable rain now looks more probable
to start across parts of the Mountain Empire region of
southwest Virginia and the Northern Mountains of North Carolina
by 100 AM to 200 AM Monday, but then spread quickly northeast
across the forecast region.

As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

High pressure will move east across the region this evening into
tonight. Warm frontal boundary draped over the deep south advances
northward tonight as southwest flow increases. Isentropic lift
overrunning this boundary should serve to bring a some rain to the
area overnight. Temperature profiles stay above freezing and not
expecting any ptype issues in our forecast area.

The rain will be hindered by the drier air in place. However,
the rain will slowly advance northeast overnight into Monday.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 30s in the
north to the lower 40s along the far west ridges and the North
Carolina foothills and piedmont.

The warm frontal boundary will make a slow advance northeast Monday.
Pockets of rain will continue into early Monday afternoon. Cloud
cover will play a key role in the temperatures forecast. 850 mb
temperatures are rising despite the fact that clouds are lingering.
Kept the highest pops in the morning, then taper back chances during
Monday afternoon. High temperatures on Monday will vary from the
lower 50s in the northeast to the mid 60s in the far west.


As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Looking very spring-like as amplified mid-level height pattern
is forecast for mid-week. High pressure is forecast to build
along the southeast Atlantic Coast with 500 mb heights of 2-2.5
standard deviation above normal. This subtropical ridge of high
pressure will provide a deep southwesterly flow of warm air
into our region with temperatures 20 degrees above normal.
Southerly winds will also result in increasing dewpoints and
moisture with some potential for morning stratus and drizzle
along the foothills of the Blue Ridge into North Carolina both
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Forecast soundings by Wednesday
afternoon even show some weak CAPE, so afternoon cumulus and
potential for convective showers will enter the picture for
Wednesday, coverage mainly limited to the mountains.


As of 330 PM EST Sunday...

An upper long wave trough over the central/northern Rockies is
forecast to move east, flattening the subtropical ridge over
the southeast CONUS. This will allow a cold front to move into
the area from the northwest Thursday, potentially stalling over
or just north of our region. This front will result in an
increasing threat for showers, but no snow...temperatures
remaining above the seasonal norm.


As of 1145 PM EST Sunday...

Rain will move into southwest Virginia, southeast West Virginia
and northwest North Carolina overnight. Ceilings will drop to
MVFR then IFR with the precipitation. Confidence high on the
timing with the majority of the rain before 15Z/10AM. Ceilings
may improve in the mountains during the afternoon. Confidence is
medium on the extent of the improvement.

Winds will be gusty at higher elevations tonight, but for much
of the region gusts will be less than 20 knots. HRRR guidance
showed a widespread area of stratus Monday night across the
mountains and well into the piedmont of Virginia and North
Carolina. High confidence of IFR to LIFR ceilings at KDAN after
00Z/7PM. Areas of fog and drizzle are expected in the mountains
and foothills, especially along the Blue Ridge south of KROA.
This will result in IFR to LIFR conditions overnight.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure strengthens offshore resulting in a return to
overall VFR Tuesday ahead of the next cold front well west of
the Appalachians. Scattered MVFR showers are expected Wednesday
into Thursday with the approach of a cold front.




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