Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 231147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
747 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-
EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...HOWEVER CLOUDS
DISSIPATE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WHEN MOISTURE WILL BECOME TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BREAKING OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FAR
WESTERN RIDGES ARE LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER 10 AM AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE
OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO
START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S
FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST
STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING
DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA BY DAWN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT.
NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT THURSDAY...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL IFR AT
BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE THIS MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TAKING PLACE MID TO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CIGS BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. CIGS WILL
SCATTER SOONER AT BCB...BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

WINDS IN GENERAL...REMAINING NORTHWEST AND STARTING THE DAY GUSTY...
BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY 14Z-22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS
18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/NF



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