Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

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FXUS66 KSEW 152144
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
245 PM PDT WED OCT 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INLAND AND ONSHORE FLOW EASES OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD
BE DRY AND WARMER AS LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. A FRONT WILL
NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
WRN WA FRIDAY EVENING...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH I THINK BY AFTERNOON THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER AND SOME SUN.

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER IS A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ON THE
COAST SUNDAY. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND A BREAK TUESDAY...AND THEN A
STRONGER FRONT NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD WASHINGTON. AT THE SURFACE
FLOW IS MODERATE SOUTHERLY AND ONSHORE. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM HAS MOVED ONTO THE
COAST. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK
EDGE BUT SO FAR ONLY A SINGLE LIGHTNING STRIKE...AT 1930Z...HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN THE CWA. THE AIR MASS WILL STABILIZE THIS EVENING.

CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER THIS EVENING AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY.

KSEA...SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS 3-5K FT. WINDS
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 20012G22KT...TAPERING BY MIDNIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF SURGES OF WIND THAT HAVE TAKEN
MOST AREAS INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CATEGORY TODAY. THESE WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

A STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW STRONG GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 14 TO 20 FEET. GALES MAY
ALSO OCCUR AT THE ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND OVER
THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
AREAS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INLAND ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH WASHINGTON SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     GALE WATCH COAST...EAST ENTRANCE...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.

&&

$$

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