Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 170502
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
902 PM PST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Variable high clouds, with temperatures above seasonal averages
are expected through Thursday. High surf will continue into
Saturday. A fast-moving storm will bring cooler weather, gusty
west winds to the mountains and deserts, and a chance for light
rain and mountain snow showers Friday into Saturday morning.
Accumulations should be light with minimal impact outside of the
potential for wet commutes on Friday. Fair weather returns for
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

This evening, satellite imagery shows widespread high and mid-
level clouds moving over the region and a few locations are
reporting low clouds and fog. Patches of low clouds and fog are
expected in the coastal areas tonight, but are unlikely to become
widespread due to the influence of the higher clouds and
developing offshore flow.

A persistent high pressure ridge along with weak offshore flow
will continue the warm weather through Thursday. Variable mid and
high clouds will continue as well, along with patchy low clouds
and fog in the coastal areas. Daytime temperatures in the 70s and
80s will continue in the inland valleys.

For Friday through Saturday...A fast-moving low pressure system
will bring cooler weather, gusty west winds, and a chance for
mostly small amounts of rain and mountain snow.

Current precipitation estimates are...for one tenth inch or less
near the coast and one quarter inch in the mountains with locally
greater amounts. A dusting to two inches of snow is possible at
elevations above 5000 ft. From a hydrologic perspective, little or
no impacts are expected.

The west winds will strengthen Thursday night, peak Friday
afternoon and begin to weaken on Saturday. At their peak, wind
gusts of 50-60 mph with locally higher gusts will be possible.

Daytime temperatures will lower into the 60s west of the
mountains, numbers closer to seasonal averages.

For Sunday through Tuesday...Fair weather returns after the low
pressure system moves east and a weak high pressure ridge
develops over the western U.S., although temperatures don`t get
much above 70 west of the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
170400Z...Coast...Patchy low clouds, with bases 300-600 ft MSL and
tops near 1000 ft MSL, will continue to develop this evening, but
then should push back over the waters overnight due to weak offshore
flow. VIS of 1 SM or less is possible where low clouds near higher
terrain. VFR will prevail Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions with scattered to broken
high clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Combined seas of 7-11 feet with a long period in the outer waters
south of San Clemente Island will continue tonight, then gradually
decrease Wednesday. A low pressure trough will create hazardous
winds and seas Friday through Saturday. Patchy fog remains
possible.

&&

.BEACHES...
High surf will peak through tonight, then gradually decrease
Wednesday. Strong rip currents and surf of 5-9 ft with sets of 10-13
ft are expected. Surf will subside on Thursday, but a new swell
associated with a Pacific storm will arrive Friday afternoon and
continue through Saturday. As such, the High Surf Advisory was
extended through Saturday evening.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation will not be needed through Thursday.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM PST Saturday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Gregoria


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