Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
739 FXUS66 KSGX 022024 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 124 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil weather will continue into the holiday weekend with minor day to day changes. A ridge of high pressure is expected to move into the area by the first half of next week, prompting a warming trend over the region with increased heat risk. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A weak trough currently over SoCal continues to produce mid level cumulus across places like Big Bear into the high desert. Low clouds continue to cling to some areas to the coast, with satellite showing trends of clouds retreating back inland at this hour. Clouds will push inland to about the same extent as this morning with patchy fog across the western valleys. A series of weak troughs from the north and west will move across our area, keeping the weather pattern benign with highs near normal. For Independence Day itself, highs will in the low 70s to lower 90s west of the mountains, 70s/80s in the mountains, 90s in the high desert and near 105-110 across the lower deserts. Similar temperatures can be expected each day through the weekend. Models are very good agreement on a ridge high pressure moving into our region by early next week. This will lead to a shallower marine layer with low clouds staying near the coast, along with warmer temperatures. Warmest temperatures will occur around the middle of next week, with increasing chances for highs in the triple digits across the Inland Empire and temperatures nearing 115 degrees across the lower deserts. Model trends show a subtle increase in moisture (PWAT) into the middle of the week. NBM chances for any storm activity are below 10 percent by Tuesday and Wednesday, though cumulus clouds may at least form over our higher terrain. Confidence continues to remain low on any storm activity at this time, but we will continue to refine this forecast in the coming days. && .AVIATION... 022000Z....Coast/Valleys...Most locations have cleared but some BKN low clouds with bases around 1800-2000ft MSL will TEMPO in and out of KSAN and KCRQ over the next few hours. Clouds likely to hang along the coast and beaches for San Diego County through the evening. Low clouds push inland again after 02-03Z with bases near 900-1300ft MSL and similar inland extent as this morning. VIS down to 2-3SM for coastal terrain and valleys. Clearing to the coast likely at a similar time, around 18z on Thursday. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted VIS through Thursday. FEW-SCT high clouds with bases above 10,000ft MSL across the far eastern mountains and deserts through this evening. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather conditions are expected through Sunday. && .BEACHES... Building southerly swell (190 degrees) of 3 feet at 14-17 seconds will generate elevated surf of 3-5 ft with sets to 6 ft along southerly facing beaches Thu-Sat. In addition, strong rip and longshore currents expected at all beaches Friday and Saturday. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect and contains more information. Swell and surf will begin to lower on Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber