000
FXUS66 KSGX 130434
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOCAL WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF SEASONAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH...AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT NIGHT
AND MORNING LOWS CLOUDS...WITH COASTAL REGIONS EXPERIENCING PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SAN GORGONIO PASS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL
ZONES INTO THE VALLEYS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM KNKX INDICATES THAT
THE MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 500FT DEEPER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...THEREFORE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO MAKE IT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETREAT TO COASTAL AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AND A FEW
COASTAL AREAS MAY AGAIN SEE CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH
EVENING. EXPECT A SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLEARING FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS MAY OCCUR SLIGHTLY
EARLIER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESS FURTHER TO OUR
NE. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER SOCAL ARE OUT OF THE SW...THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND AND LIFT TOWARD
THE NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MAINTAINING SW FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOCAL. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
OF 5-7 MB...GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THE WIND POTENTIAL WILL
BE LOWER FOR FRIDAY AS BOTH THE SW FLOW AND ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 5H OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WINDS IN THE MTNS
AND DESERTS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER.

BEYOND MONDAY THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ANOTHER EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST TUE THROUGH THU. THIS
WILL BRING BACK SLIGHT COOLING...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER...AND
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
130300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1500 FT MSL AND TOPS
2500 FT MSL IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND TO COVER ALL COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE INLAND EMPIRE AFTER
13/0600Z TONIGHT. VIS 2-4 SM BR WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS MEETS
HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...INCLUDING AREAS IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND ON
THE COAST SLOPES. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST
BETWEEN 13/1500Z-1700Z. STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO PUSH INLAND
AFT 14/0100Z THURSDAY WITH BASES AND TOPS A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET
LOWER THAN TONIGHTS.

MTNS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BA/MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JT