Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 290549
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
149 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...

Periods of MVFR cigs will continue through the early morning
hours at ECP and TLH as a low cloud deck moves eastward across
north FL. MVFR cigs cannot be ruled out at other terminals but
chances are lower in SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Showers and
thunderstorms currently moving east across Mississippi could reach
ECP and DHN around 12-15Z but current models show gradual
weakening and eventually dissipation in SE Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the late
afternoon and evening across our area, but confidence is low at
this time since a lot will depend on the evolution of this
morning`s showers and thunderstorms to our west. VFR conditions
should prevail at all terminals during this afternoon and evening
although brief visibility reductions can`t be ruled out.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [823 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Convection associated with the outflow boundary is pushing across
southeast Alabama and will continue to push eastward into southwest
Georgia. In addition, showers have developed across the Florida
Panhandle. Given this, have adjusted higher PoPs a little more
eastward with this afternoon update. SPC Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE
values around 3000-4000 J/kg, however shear is minimal. Will have to
closely watch for storms to pulse up and produce some gusty winds or
small hail. Cannot completely rule out a severe storm, but would be
isolated. Convection should quickly diminish tonight after sunset
and thus limited the forecast to 10% PoPs for the first half of the
night. By early morning though, convection from overnight moving
across the southeast could push into the southeast Alabama and given
this, have included low end PoPs (20-30%) across the northwest
portion of the CWA.

With the low level moisture overnight, expect low clouds again with
patchy fog to develop late tonight. This will also help to limit
cooling tonight and thus expect lows in the lower 70s Monday
morning, a few degrees above normal.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The short term will mark the beginning of a fairly active period as
a powerful, stagnant upper level low sets up over the Hudson Bay in
Canada as a part of a bigger Omega Block in the northern jet stream.
A series of shortwaves rotating around the periphery of this low
(likely across the Ohio River Valley), influencing the weather
across the Tri-State region. Increasing sub-tropical moisture will
prime the atmosphere for increased shower and thunderstorm activity
through the duration of the period. The Storm Prediction Center has
portions of southeast Alabama and Southern Georgia in a marginal
risk for severe weather Monday and Tuesday, as there will be plenty
of instability in place across the region. The limiting factor will
be shear, as forecast bulk shear values will generally remain below
30 kts, with the highest values remaining north and east of the
area. Nonetheless, hot, humid conditions with elevated shower and
storm chances are expected through the period. Afternoon highs will
range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with overnight lows in the
60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Active weather will continue through the long term period as the
aforementioned upper low remains in place across eastern Canada.
A broad area of surface high pressure east of the area will
continue pull moisture into the region through the end of the
week, with a weak shortwave in the southern stream of the jet
traversing the area by late week/next weekend, continuing the wet
and active pattern through next weekend. Shower and storm chances
will be highest during the afternoon and early evening hours
(peak heating). Afternoon high temperatures will generally run in
the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.


.MARINE...

Southwesterly winds between 10 and 15 knots will prevail each
afternoon through Tuesday evening with seas of 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night, winds will turn northerly remaining around 10 knots
before decreasing during the day Wednesday. Generally light winds
and seas will persist through late week. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase from mid-week onward.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our
area from Monday through the remainder of the week. However, any
heavy rain should be localized and short-lived. As a result, no
widespread flooding concerns are anticipated and rivers are
expected to remain below flood stage at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  70  91  70  91 /  30  10  30  20  20
Panama City   88  74  88  72  85 /  40  10  20  10  20
Dothan        88  71  88  69  88 /  50  20  50  30  30
Albany        90  71  89  70  89 /  30  20  40  30  20
Valdosta      92  71  92  69  91 /  30  10  30  30  30
Cross City    91  70  92  70  92 /  10   0  10  10  30
Apalachicola  86  72  87  72  87 /  20   0  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...McDermott
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...McDermott



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