Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 261854
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
254 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A shortwave moving through the Central Plains this afternoon will
locally increase upper-level cloudiness overnight tonight. Low-layer
easterly flow will also result in plentiful boundary layer moisture.
However, the middle troposphere is quite dry and will preclude any
shower development. So, while no rain is expected, a combination of
upper level clouds and low clouds/fog will keep overnight lows above
normal. Expect lows to bottom out in the lower 60s, possibly even
some middle 60s across the Big Bend and south-central Georgia.
.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The southern extent of a weak 500mb trough will move into the
southeast U.S. on Thursday as the associated surface low tracks
across the Ohio Valley. The weak cold front associated with this
will weaken as it moves eastward and washes out before reaching the
CWA and thus do not expect any precip front the front. This
system will break down the ridging along the east coast. By Friday
though, high pressure builds across the eastern CONUS again and
strengthens across the CWA.
High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s inland with the
lower 80s along the coast. Low temperatures will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s inland with the low to mid 60s along the
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Surface high pressure builds southward on Saturday with weak upper
ridging in place. High pressure continues to dominate into early
next week with the center of the upper ridge also shifting over the
CWA. With riding in place and no strong synoptic features, the CWA
will remain dry into next week. A low pressure system will move
across Canada and the Great Lakes Monday/Tuesday but this will
remain well north of the CWA. Highs will be in the 80s with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...
Another round of low clouds and fog are expected tonight though the
westward extent is still questionable. At this time expect
restrictions from ABY to TLH and eastward, possibly spreading west
and becoming more pessimistic at the next TAF issuance.
A few light showers cannot be ruled out late tonight into
tomorrow morning across the western marine area. Winds and seas
will increase tonight with cautionary winds offshore tonight.
Winds will subside to around or below 15 knots tomorrow afternoon.
No fire weather concerns are expected through the weekend as RH
values will remain above critical thresholds, and winds will be
light. On Monday minimum RH values could range from 25-30% across
parts of SE Alabama and SW Georgia...but very light winds should
minimize any fire weather concerns.
The area is expected to remain dry over the next few days and
thus there are no flooding concerns.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 85 60 86 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 66 80 64 82 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 60 85 58 87 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 61 85 58 87 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 62 84 59 85 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 62 83 60 85 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 67 80 65 81 64 / 10 0 0 0 0