Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 041423
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1023 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The upper levels this morning are characterized by a very weak
trough stretching from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida
panhandle. Elsewhere, an elongated +PV anomaly stretches from the
Great Lakes region through the Ohio Valley. These features are
embedded within a rather amplified ridge that covers the eastern
half of the country. At the surface, a disturbed area of high
pressure covers much of the Southeast, with a trough extending
from the TX coast, along the northern Gulf coast, and through
south AL and central GA.

Steering flow will generally remain northerly today which would
favor highest PoPs south of interstate 10 in north Florida.
However, with the aforementioned surface trough in place, a
scattering of storms across southeast AL and south GA will be
possible as well. Satellite derived PWATs blend well with observed
sounding analysis this morning and depict a seasonably moist
airmass over the western half of the Tri-State region, and above
average moisture to the east. Severe weather is not expected today
as poor lapse rates will limit the dTheta-E component of the
WMSI, making wet microbursts unlikely.

Highs will be in the low to middle 90s for interior locations
across the region, with upper 80s expected along the coast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [431 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

A mid-upper level low is expected to settle over the Carolinas
this weekend. On Saturday, this is expected to place our forecast
area in a region of upper level diffluence in the left exit
region of a north-south, 50-60kt jet streak along the Mississippi
River. Combined with moderate instability and precipitable water
values just above normal for this time of year, it should be
sufficient for scattered to numerous showers and storms. By
Sunday, the upper level low will drift closer to our area, which
should provide for some steeper lapse rates and could allow for
some more vigorous thunderstorms. Overall, the coverage may be a
bit lower than Saturday, but we still expect scattered showers and
storms. With very weak steering flow this weekend, locally heavy
rainfall will be a possibility. Temperatures should be near
normal overall.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

On average over the extended forecast period, a mid-upper level
trough should persist over or near our forecast area. This should
keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
foreseeable future. A trend toward slightly lower thicknesses
may lead to temperatures near or slightly below normal.


.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Saturday] VFR will prevail at all terminals.
Scattered convection will once again develop this afternoon
possibly briefly impacting the terminals with a slightly better
chance at TLH.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued over the coastal
waters through the forecast period.


.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns at least for the next several
days.


.Hydrology...

Area rivers remained below their local action stages this
afternoon, and this is likely to continue for the next several
days in the absence of organized heavy rain. Localized heavy
rainfall will be possible over the next few days, though.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  75  93  74  89 /  40  20  60  30  50
Panama City   89  77  87  75  86 /  40  10  50  30  50
Dothan        94  73  93  71  88 /  30  20  50  30  50
Albany        94  74  93  72  89 /  40  20  50  30  40
Valdosta      94  73  91  71  88 /  40  30  60  30  40
Cross City    92  74  91  73  88 /  40  30  60  30  40
Apalachicola  90  76  89  75  87 /  40  10  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/FOURNIER



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