Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
142 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are most likely in eastern
portions of our area- mainly near VLD, TLH. Reduced vsbys will be
possible during these storms. Otherwise, vsby/cig restrictions
appear unlikely through tonight. In the early morning hours,
patchy fog will be possible again in eastern portions of the area,
though confidence was too low to include in this TAF package.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level low situated over our area with southerly flow
bringing Gulf moisture and enhanced divergence on its east side
over the Florida Peninsula and northeast Florida. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms in this area will be around 30-40% this
afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Hurricane Maria will continue to track northward to the east of
an elongated upper low/trough over the southeastern CONUS, and
will remain well offshore of the Atlantic Coast through this
period. The upper low will drift westward over our area tonight,
and become nearly stationary over MS/AL from Sunday through
Monday. Combined with PWAT values above 1.5" and SBCAPE up to
1000-1500 J/kg during peak heating times, this will lead to
continued chances of showers and thunderstorms across the FL
Panhandle and SE Alabama during this time. Highest chances will be
near the Gulf Coast and offshore, where deep layer moisture will
be highest (PWAT values around 1.8"-2.0"). Drier air will filter
into SW Georgia and the inland FL Big Bend under light
northeasterly flow, especially on Monday, so generally dry
conditions are anticipated across these areas. Slightly above
average temperatures will prevail, with highs ranging from the mid
80s to near 90 across our area.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The semi-cutoff upper low mentioned in the short term discussion
will drift back eastward over our area on Tuesday before slowly
moving southeastward over the FL Peninsula during mid-late week.
Despite some forcing from this feature, increasingly dry air will
continue to filter into our area under northerly flow. From
Friday through Saturday, a pattern change will begin to develop as
a stronger upper level trough moves into the eastern CONUS. A cold
front is expected to move across our area as well, although there
is some disagreement among forecast models regarding the
speed/position of the front during this time. The GFS is faster
with the front and pushes it through our area by Friday night,
while the ECMWF is slower and maintains more moisture across our
area on Saturday. Due to this uncertainty, a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms will be maintained across our area on both
Friday and Saturday.

Above average temperatures will prevail throughout this period, as
highs in the lower 90s are likely across inland areas with upper
80s along the Gulf Coast. Lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower
70s are expected, although lower-mid 60s cannot be ruled out by
the weekend as the front moves through our area.


Easterly winds around 10-15 knots will prevail during the weekend,
with light and variable winds early next week. Seas around 2-3
feet are anticipated through this weekend.


No concerns.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible this weekend,
mainly across the FL Panhandle. However, any heavy rain will be
brief/isolated and flooding is not expected. Drier conditions will
move into our area during next week.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   70  87  69  88  69 /  30  20  20  10  10
Panama City   72  84  73  85  72 /  30  40  30  30  10
Dothan        68  87  67  89  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
Albany        68  89  68  89  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  86  67  87  66 /  10  20  10  10  10
Cross City    69  89  69  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  73  85  72  86  72 /  50  40  30  20  10




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