Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 192025
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
325 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer ridging will prevail overnight, with dry northerly flow
gradually becoming more easterly. This could favor fog development
south of Interstate-10 in the Florida panhandle later tonight. Lows
will fall into the lower 50s region-wide.
.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
The upper level pattern begins highly amplified with a sharp ridge
from the eastern GOMEX to Hudson Bay and a deep trough extending
from the northern Plains into central America. Both the GFS and
ECMWF show a low closing off over Texas Monday night and moving
over the northwest gulf on Tuesday. The EURO solution is slightly
faster than the GFS in tracking this feature east-southeastward
over the north-central gulf by 12z Wed. Both solutions keep the
accompanying deep layer moisture and rain west of our CWA through
Tuesday. The faster EURO solution is a bit more robust with rain
overspreading our area Tuesday night. Went with a a blend and
placed 20-30% PoPs mainly west of a line from Tifton, GA to
Apalachicola. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, lows
will range from mid to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
While the EURO solution continues to be slightly faster than the
GFS in the handling of the cutoff low, both are in much better
agreement in tracking it to the southeast to near the western tip
of Cuba by Thursday morning/afternoon. This means only a slight
chance (20%) for rain at best for our area on Wednesday. The dry
weather will continue at least through Thursday. Rain chances
return Friday through early Saturday with the approach and
passage of the next "cold" front. Temperatures will continue well
above average, with highs near 80 through Friday and mostly mid to
upper 70s over the weekend. Lows in the mid to upper 50s through
Friday night dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday
.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...
VFR conditions under a scattered low CU field will prevail for the
remainder of the afternoon. Overnight, LIFR restrictions will be
possible at ECP, lesser so at TLH. Otherwise VFR will prevail
through the TAF.
Winds and seas will be low through Monday night as a weak high
pressure system settles over the marine area. Light to moderate
east to southeast winds are expected for much of this week
Light winds and RH values well above critical thresholds will
prevail for the next few days. As a result, no fire weather hazards
With only light, rather spotty rain amounts expected for the
upcoming week, rivers will remain well below flood stage.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 52 81 54 81 58 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 56 74 59 76 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
Dothan 51 78 55 79 58 / 0 0 0 10 30
Albany 49 79 53 80 58 / 0 0 0 10 20
Valdosta 51 80 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 51 81 54 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 56 73 60 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 20