Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 220227
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
927 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

02 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure NE of the
region over Middle Georgia. The next approaching frontal system
was still back across the Central Plains. The beginning signs of
stronger return flow off the Gulf was present over the Central and
Western Gulf, while over the Eastern Gulf, the low level flow
was fairly light.

Satellite imagery reveals extensive cirrus moving over the region
and this will likely continue through the overnight hours. The
main forecast difficulty rests with the development of fog and any
other low clouds. One thing in favor of lower clouds/fog is the
very cool waters over Apalachee Bay (water temps are in the low
50s), and not much additional airmass modification would be
necessary for stratus to develop later tonight and advect
inland once the southerly flow picks up. Our local hi-res
ensemble products suggest this fog/stratus should develop just
after 09z and spread quickly inland across the Florida Big Bend
and into South Central Georgia. There is also some support for
this from the 18z GFS and the last few HRRR runs. As a result,
have made some adjustments to the inherited forecast to show fog
and increased cloud cover in our eastern zones. But given the
uncertainty, will let future shifts monitor any need for a dense
fog advisory.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [637 PM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The cold front will move into our southeast Alabama and eastern
Florida Panhandle late Monday afternoon. Deep layer (0-6 km) shear
still looks favorable for severe weather at around 40-50 kts Monday
evening, but instability remains the limiting factor tomorrow with
SBCAPE below 400 J/kg. The highest chances for marginally severe
wind gusts will be west of a line from Dothan to Panama City in the
afternoon and early evening. Instability will lower further after
sunset, limiting chances for severe weather as storms continue
eastward overnight.

Storms will exit the area Tuesday morning. Temperatures will rise
into the 70s Monday ahead of the front and will peak mostly in the
60s Tuesday in its wake. Overnight temperatures will range from low
40s to the west and upper 50s to the east Monday night as the front
cross the area and return to the 30s Tuesday night.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Deep layer ridging will move in behind the front and dominate the
forecast through Friday. As we head into the weekend, a mid and
upper level trough will move through the central CONUS once again,
this time with a shortwave at the base of the trough enhancing
development in the western GoMex. If things unfold the way the ECMWF
and GFS have been showing the past few runs, we may be looking
forward to some much needed rainfall next weekend. Highs will be in
the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s through the remainder of the
work week, with temperatures warming up again by the weekend.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

Current VFR conditions around the region are anticipated to drop
to IFR at TLH/VLD/ABY before sunrise with MVFR conditions
elsewhere. With strengthening southerly winds, expect conditions
to only slowly improve to MVFR everywhere by 15z-17z. TSRA will
approach DHN/ECP after 22z with the other sites remaining dry
through the end of the TAF period.


.MARINE...

Winds will increase ahead of Monday night`s front and remain
elevated for the next several days, which may bring a prolonged
period of cautionary conditions to our coastal waters.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Storm total accumulations of around a half inch of rain or less are
expected with Monday`s cold front, which will not cause any flooding
on our currently low rivers. Another frontal system next weekend,
however, appears to be more favorable for producing some much needed
rainfall.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   48  70  53  66  38 /   0  10  50  10   0
Panama City   53  69  52  64  42 /   0  30  60   0   0
Dothan        49  72  48  62  35 /   0  30  60   0   0
Albany        48  72  53  64  37 /   0  10  40   0   0
Valdosta      45  74  56  67  38 /   0  10  60  20   0
Cross City    49  77  58  71  37 /   0  10  60  40   0
Apalachicola  53  67  54  67  41 /   0  20  50  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen



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