Area Forecast Discussion
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163
FXUS62 KTAE 241927
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
327 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A brief shower is possible along the sea breeze through early this
evening, mainly over the southeast Florida Big Bend. Otherwise, dry
conditions with mostly clear skies becoming clear shortly after sunset.
Min temps will be a little milder than the previous nights with lows
in the lower to mid 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Ridging will continue to dominate the weather across the region,
with overall subsidence and sinking motion in place. A slight
increase in deep-layer moisture throughout the period may allow for
an isolated thunderstorm or two along the seabreeze, particularly in
the Big Bend of Florida. Otherwise, rain chances remain below 20
percent. Expect temperatures near climatology with highs near 90 and
lows in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
At the start of the period, the region will be between systems,
with ridging extending from the NE Gulf up into the Southern
Appalachians. Model guidance has been fairly persistent with some
organization to a tropical disturbance NE of the Bahamas in the
Western Atlantic. Though the moisture associated with this feature
gets fairly close to the region in the Sun-Mon timeframe, the bulk
of the rain chances remain better off to our north and east, so
will keep rain chances through the weekend on the low side. It
should be noted that there`s the possibility with our region
remaining on the western side of tropical disturbance, that the
airmass ultimately ends up drier than expected, and in subsequent
forecasts from Saturday through Monday that rain chances will need
to be lowered.

Temperatures through the period should be fairly close to
climatology during the day with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
Lows will be much warmer than recent days, generally in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...
VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the TAF
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light to moderate east to southeast flow is expected
for the next few days. Onshore flow to near 10 knots is expected
each afternoon with the daily sea breeze circulation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected to continue over the next several days.
However, humidity values are forecast to remain above critical
levels, with no Red Flag concerns. Dispersion values are expected to
be very high Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across the Florida
Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With dry conditions over the next few days, there are no flooding
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   63  90  66  90  66 /  10   0   0  10   0
Panama City   68  83  70  83  70 /  10   0   0  10   0
Dothan        64  89  66  90  66 /  10   0   0  10   0
Albany        62  89  67  90  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
Valdosta      63  89  65  89  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  90  63  89  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  83  69  82  69 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Godsey/King/Bennett
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Godsey



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