Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241901
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Relatively strong west-southwest flow this afternoon is helping to
produce scattered thunderstorms across the region. The strength of
the flow has disrupted the typical seabreeze circulation, which has
limited a lot of well-defined forcing. Expect activity to slowly
increase in coverage through late afternoon before diminishing early
this evening. With west-southwest flow continuing overnight, coastal
showers are most likely along the panhandle coast after midnight.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Through the short term period, the region will be located between
a large ridge across the Central CONUS and the subtropical ridge
that extends across the Southern Florida Peninsula. This type of
pattern will lend itself to rather high PoP afternoons and
offshore convection during the overnight hours with a very moist
airmass in place. The daily specifics are somewhat complicated,
however, as more robust offshore convection often delays or
completely disturbs the daily sea breeze circulation, which makes
predicting afternoon rain chances difficult.

Based on the latest guidance, a more uniform PoP distribution
makes sense for Tuesday afternoon with an earlier start to showers
and storms across the region. As a result, high temperatures on
Tuesday will likely struggle to reach 90 degrees.

On Wednesday, the weak upper disturbance shifts eastward toward
the SE GA Coast, and as a result, some drier air starts to affect
our far northwestern zones. Thus, have set up a SE to NW PoP
gradient, which features the highest rain chances on Wednesday
across the I-75 corridor (70%) tapering down to 40% in portions of
SE Alabama.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
The longer term forecast is a little lower confidence than usual.
On Thursday and Friday, the weak upper level disturbance will
shift out into the Western Atlantic, leaving no synoptic trigger
to help further focus afternoon convection, thus will keep the
forecast fairly close to climatology on these days with PoPs in
the 40-50 percent range.

By Saturday and Sunday rain chances will increase as both the Euro
and GFS show a frontal boundary moving toward the Gulf Coast as a
large mid/upper level trough develops across the Mid Atlantic
States and possibly extending down into the Southeast. While there
are differences by Sunday/Monday whether the front actually clears
the forecast area (which is highly unlikely given the time of
year), the weather across at least the eastern half of the region
ahead of the trough axis will be quite unsettled. As a result,
PoPs through the end of the extended east of an Albany to
Tallahassee line are above normal. Additionally, high temperatures
are only expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside
of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorms will be
most prevalent through mid- to late afternoon today and again by
late morning Tuesday at KTLH and KECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Modest west to southwest winds are expected through the next
several days. Seas will increase late in the period as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
However, headline criteria are not expected to be met.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the
next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A wet stretch of days is expected through Thursday. While storm
motions should be fast enough to prevent any significant flood
concerns, however, individual storms could easily produce 1-2
inches of rain in a short amount of time. Unsettled conditions are
expected over the weekend, which could lead to some additional
localized flood concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  90  74  91  74 /  20  50  30  60  20
Panama City   78  88  77  89  77 /  40  40  40  50  20
Dothan        74  89  73  90  74 /  30  60  30  50  20
Albany        74  90  74  91  74 /  30  60  30  60  20
Valdosta      73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  70  20
Cross City    75  91  74  91  74 /  20  30  20  50  20
Apalachicola  76  89  76  89  76 /  30  40  40  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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