Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230144
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
944 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL BE PLEASANT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ARE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [331 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD GENERALLY EAST OF THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST AND BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION WHILE THE
MID LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THEN
ON SUNDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DOTHAN TO TALLAHASSEE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S AND AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

BY MID WEEK, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS A
SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN
LOCALLY. POPS EACH AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90
TO THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY]...VFR. SCATTERED CIRRUS WITH A FEW-SCT LOWER
OR MIDDLE DECK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLOWLY VEERING LIGHT
BREEZE...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS.


.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN EASTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
AND LOWER WESTERN GULF PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN WEEKEND WINDS AND
INCREASE SEA HEIGHT, SURF, AND SWELL. CAUTION LEVEL WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM EAST SATURDAY TO MORE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET
SATURDAY TO 2 TO 4 SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURF BY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE FETCH TURNS MORE ONSHORE. THIS FETCH WILL ALSO
PUSH IN A HIGHER SWELL, AVERAGE 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS BY SUNDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
ANTICIPATED. WHILE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS, STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE 75 FOR MOST OF THE REGION.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH AREA RIVERS AT NORMAL FLOW LEVELS AND  NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   65  90  70  89  71 /   0  10  10  20  30
PANAMA CITY   68  87  73  85  74 /   0  10  20  30  30
DOTHAN        62  88  67  88  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
ALBANY        61  88  66  89  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
VALDOSTA      63  90  65  90  69 /   0  10  10  10  20
CROSS CITY    67  92  67  90  69 /   0  20  20  10  30
APALACHICOLA  69  86  75  85  75 /   0  20  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...WOOL


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