Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 101006
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
606 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
[Through 12Z Sunday] Brief MVFR conditions will be possible at most
sites this morning, but should improve by around 15Z. Showers will
spread from northwest to southeast this morning, and are most likely
to affect DHN and ABY, possibly spreading to VLD later in the day.
.Prev Discussion [324 AM EDT]...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
A cold front is draped across the Appalachian mountains and
southwestward along southern MS, LA, and TX. Over the tri-state
area, dewpoints are hovering around 70, lowering slowly as
temperatures continue to fall overnight. The cold front will push
its way into our area today, with showers will develop out ahead of
it. Model CAPE and lapse rates are quite low, so thunder and
lightning is expected to be pretty isolated. These storms will
develop over our northern zones early in the morning and moving
southeastward through the day. Highs today will be in the low to mid
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
By this evening the front will likely have cleared all but our
southeast Big Bend counties, but will do so there by dawn on
Sunday. Only a slight chance of rain will exist before 2am. For
the remainder of the short term, PoPs are not forecast. The only
forecast challenge of note will be on Sunday when low clouds will
likely spread in from the northeast. The main concern with this
will be how it affects high temperatures across south Georgia and
southeast Alabama, and if the deck ends up scattering late in the
afternoon. For now, will advertise slightly cooler temperatures in
these locations on Sunday, around the middle 70s. Elsewhere, highs
will climb to near 80 degrees. Sunday night will introduce upper
50s across all interior locations, with low 60s along the coast.
Highs will rebound into the lower 80s on Monday, with mostly clear
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Another shortwave is forecast to move through the Southeast on
Tuesday, bringing with it another cold front. At this time it
appears as though only a scattering of showers should be expected
along the front through the day Tuesday. Otherwise, the remainder
of the extended forecast will be dry. Temperatures will run near
average during the afternoons, and slightly below average (upper
50s) each night.
Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail for the next
several days. A few showers will be possible this evening and once
again on Tuesday night.
Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria through
the period. Patchy fog and low ceilings will be possible this
morning and again tomorrow morning.
The little rain expected today and on Tuesday will have no
significant impact on area rivers or streams.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 85 65 80 58 82 / 30 20 10 0 0
Panama City 82 67 79 62 79 / 10 10 0 0 0
Dothan 81 63 77 57 82 / 30 10 0 0 0
Albany 82 63 77 58 82 / 40 10 10 0 0
Valdosta 84 64 77 59 81 / 40 20 10 0 10
Cross City 85 67 81 60 82 / 40 30 10 10 10
Apalachicola 83 68 79 62 79 / 20 30 0 10 0