Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 071744
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1244 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

Dense MVFR-IFR cloud coverage remains in place across the area
and is forecast to stick around through about 15Z Thursday
morning. On the edges of the cloud layer- VLD, ECP, and TLH, there
may be periodic, brief breaks to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1032 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Strong low level isentropic ascent across the Gulf coastline from
the 295-310 K layers (roughly near the surface to around 850 mb)
has left the majority of our area under a dense low level cloud
shield with a steep inversion in place. Although the cloud layer
is shallow, the isentropic forcing is forecast to persist,
maintaining the inversion and cloud deck through tonight.
Therefore, have adjusted up forecast cloud coverage and adjusted
down daytime temperatures accordingly.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

The next cold front on tap for the area will swing through Thursday.
It will be ushered through by a 1042mb high pressure area
originating from northwest Canada sliding down the front range of
the Rockies. This will be some of the coldest air of the season
thus far for the southeast United States heading into the first
part of the weekend. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation
due to the Tuesday front scouring much of the moisture out as it
passed through. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 50s across SE
Alabama to mid-upper 60s across the eastern Big Bend counties.
Highs Friday will be markedly cooler with highs only in the upper
40s across SE Alabama to upper 50s across the eastern Big Bend
counties. Lows will be in the 40s Wednesday night and the 30s
Thursday night. There is an expected light freeze Thursday night
roughly along and north of a De Funiak Springs Florida to Ashburn
Georgia line. Wind chills will be in the low/mid 20s across AL/GA
and mid 20s to near 30 across northern Florida.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The aforementioned surface high pressure will slide across the Mid
South Friday night northeastward to the Delmarva Saturday night.
The coldest night of the period will be Friday night with most
locations away from the Gulf Coast experiencing a light freeze.
Winds become northeasterly Friday night then easterly late
Saturday. A fast moving mid level disturbance will support a cold
front passage Sunday night and Monday morning. Source region for
the airmass behind this front is a moderated Continental Polar
airmass which will not be as cold as the more Arctic airmass from
the short term. Moisture will feed into the system as it moves
across the eastern half of the United States but a bulk of this
will be to our north. Low end chance PoPs with not much
accumulation appears the likely scenario for this event. Mid/upper
flow behind this system is a fast zonal flow which means not much
in the way of temperature advection. Therefore, the warmup to
highs in the 60s to lower 70s on Sunday will roughly be the norm
Monday through Wednesday.


.MARINE...

Relatively low winds and seas will be the rule today
through Thursday. A cold front will swing through Thursday with
winds and seas increasing beginning Thursday evening. Expect
advisory level sustained winds with periods of gusts to near gale
force Thursday night through Friday night with seas approaching 10
feet in the far offshore waters. Expect more favorable marine
conditions beginning Saturday as high pressure builds across the
southeast United States.


.FIRE WEATHER...

After much needed widespread rains, fuels have moistened up
considerably. Therefore, even through much drier air will arrive for
Friday and Saturday, red flag criteria should not be met.


.HYDROLOGY...

No rainfall is in the forecast through Saturday night. Therefore,
the heavy rains from this last system will have time to drain
through the river basins. The flood warning for the Shoal River
near Mossy Head was cancelled yesterday as the river fell below
flood stage with predicted levels to continue to fall.

A few of our rivers are expected to reach action stage over the
next few days, including the Chipola River and the Ochlockonee
River. The Choctawhatchee River is expected to each minor flood
stage by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   46  64  36  54  30 /   0   0  10   0   0
Panama City   51  62  39  53  34 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        43  60  31  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        44  62  32  51  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      46  65  35  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  68  39  58  31 /   0   0  10   0   0
Apalachicola  51  66  40  54  36 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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