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000
FXUS64 KCRP 260550 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Looking at the fog channel, there could be some brief MVFR CIGS at
KVCT so put a TEMPO BKN018 before 10Z. Also, could not rule out
some brief MVFR BR KVCT too, but for now held off on that given
the cloud cover (some of it higher clouds) limiting the
radiational cooling. Otherwise, am expecting VFR conditions with
some ceilings above 12000 feet at times. Could have some VCTS/TSRA
at KALI and KVCT later today, and for now just went with VCTS for
a few hours. Did keep the VCSH at KLRD as am not as confident that
convection will reach that area (will look at that again for the
12Z terminals). Any convection that develops today will likely
occur west of KCRP so for now held off on VCSH/VCTS but will look
at that again for the 12Z forecast too. Wind forecast rather
typical for late July in South Texas, with south winds becoming
southeast with the sea-breeze and diminishing around sunset except
of course at KLRD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 915 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection continues to develop offshore
this evening in response to a northward moving outflow boundary
(from convection that collapsed earlier this afternoon off the NE
TX Coast). This boundary marks the leading edge of deep tropical
moisture advection across the W/NW gulf and is leading to enhanced
low level moisture convergence across a corridor of stronger
instability (along with some minor interaction with a TUTT low
and approaching mid level vort max). Convection should persist a
few more hours offshore before moisture convergence wanes and
activity begins to dissipate. As such, I have increased POPs for
this evening for the Gulf waters.

Over land, earlier deep convection has dissipated with the loss of
diurnal warming. Debris CI should gradually thin through the
night. Have yanked POPs for land areas for the rest of this
evening, though will have to monitor areas along Matagorda Island
as a brief isolated shower may develop later tonight.

No other changes made to inherited forecast at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  98  77  98  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
Victoria          76  98  76  99  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
Laredo            78 105  78 104  79  /  10  10   0  10   0
Alice             76 101  75 102  75  /  10  20  10  10   0
Rockport          81  93  81  94  80  /  10  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           76 104  77 104  77  /  10  10   0  10   0
Kingsville        78 100  76 100  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       81  93  81  93  81  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION