Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 230914
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
414 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

Cold front now well out of the area with a northerly flow in place
across South Texas and building mid level ridging. Holding on to a
mid-level stratus deck as of writing of this discussion with a
few showers associated with some weak isentropic lift noted across
southern half of forecast area.

Drier air and subsident airmass continues to filter into the
region and expect showers to be mainly done by sunrise with cloud
deck dissipating shortly after. Based on current trends in
clearing, expect northern portions of CWA to be breaking out of
the cloud deck between 5 and 7am with clouds clearing the southern
portion of the area by 9am. Once clouds clear, a pleasant, though
breezy day will ensue. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal with low humidity. Winds will be breezy along the
coast, 15 to 20 mph but will gradually weaken through the
afternoon.

Below normal temperatures continue tonight when low temperatures
will drop into the 50s area wide. Leaning a bit cooler than
guidance for some locations with clear skies and upper level ridge
axis overhead. Also counting on the development of a weak land
breeze toward morning shifting winds westward along the coast and
allowing a bit more cooling.

Warmer temperatures return on Monday as upper ridge shifts
eastward and next shortwave approaches Texas. 850 temps increase 8
to 10 degrees from today. Humidity will remain low, however,
until onshore flow sets back in late in the day. Mainly light
winds and clear skies will accompany highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...

Deterministic output depicts a quasi-zonal upper pattern over most
of the CONUS Monday night followed by a developing upper trough
moving across the Rockies/Plains Tuesday/Wednesday. Anticipate
SCEC/SCA conditions over the Coastal MSA Tuesday/Wednesday. The
surface boundary corresponding to the foregoing upper system is
expected to enter the CWA/MSA late Wednesday before stalling. The
bulk of the upper forcing should remain north of the CWA/MSA and
PWAT values are expected to be below normal (GFS deterministic) in
advance of the front, and thus no significant precipitation expected
along the boundary Wednesday. The deterministic GFS/ECMWF and GFS
ensemble mean suggest that another stronger upper system will
provide synoptic scale lift to the CWA Saturday. Anticipate that the
combination of the upper forcing and near or slightly above normal
PWAT values (GFS deterministic) will contribute to at least isolated
convection beginning Saturday night over the CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  54  82  67  88  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          75  51  81  62  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
Laredo            80  55  88  67  97  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             79  51  86  64  93  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          77  58  80  70  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           80  52  87  64  95  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        79  53  85  66  91  /  10   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       76  60  80  71  84  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM


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