Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 172144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
344 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
short term. A cold front currently extends from Victoria back
westward and west southwestward to south of Cotulla. Isolated
convection (mainly showers) this afternoon will move northward
across the area this afternoon.

The frontal boundary will remain stalled across the area this
evening into Wednesday. This will set the stage for additional
showers and thunderstorms across South Texas. Despite limited
instability, shear will be sufficient enough for strong
thunderstorms. A few storms could become severe though with
strong winds and a brief spin-up may be possible with a storm that
interacts with the boundary. Elevated convection north of the
boundary from the northern Brush Country into the Victoria
Crossroads could pose a marginally severe threat. SPC maintains a
marginal risk of severe storms over the area late this evening
into tonight. Also, a threat for moderate to heavy rain at times
will as deep moisture (PWs 1.5 to 1.6) will pool along and north
of boundary.

Latest guidance brings the front closer the Middle Texas Coast on
Wednesday. This will favor chances for showers and storms
continuing across the eastern and northeastern parts of the area
on Wednesday. Slight drier air will move into the Rio Grande
Plains which will diminish rain chances somewhat across the west
tomorrow. High temperatures will be tricky with the front draped
across the area. Temps should generally range from the mid/upper
60s across the Rio Grande Plains, northern Brush Country, and
Victoria Crossroads to lower and mid 70s across the Coastal Bend.

One last round of convection will be possible Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning as main upper trough axis approaches
from the west.


.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Convection Thursday should be confined to the morning hours and
primarily across the coastal counties and offshore. Parent trough
axis is prog to shift east across the CWA around midday with
significantly drier airmass throughout the entire atmospheric column
developing in the afternoon. Result should be clearing skies from
west to east through the day. Moisture quickly tries to build back
northward on Friday in the sfc-H8 layer with an increase in cloud
cover expected during the day across mainly the eastern half of S
TX. Another mid/upper level trough is prog to approach the region
Friday afternoon and if enough moisture can advect north through the
day...then an isolated shower or thunderstorm may occur in the
afternoon. For now...will carry only 20 POPs across the coastal
areas and offshore where best moisture depth is prog to occur. Wind
profile from the surface through H2 is prog to become more WSW by
Saturday and result in warm adiabatic flow through the day. Max
temps Saturday may be the warmest of the extended forecast with most
inland locations warming well into the 80s /isolated upper 80s

Strong cyclogenesis is prog to occur Saturday night across the TX
Panhandle with a 991mb low hooking and kicking ENE over N TX...and
sending a Pacific cold front across the region. Storm system is prog
to become stacked over N TX through the day Sunday with potential
existing for a strong wind event across South Texas. Strong mixing
of adiabatic processes...with H85 wind speeds prog to be around
50kts nearly areawide...could result in widespread strong sfc winds
during the day Sunday. Guidance`s placement of synoptic features
strongly correlates to some of the stronger non convective wind
events across South Texas. If current forecast pans out...wind
advisories and/or high wind warnings may be required Sunday...along
with red flag fire weather conditions.

System kicks east early next week with mid/upper level ridging
building into the region along with continued dry conditions and
another significant warming trend.


Corpus Christi    64  74  57  75  59  /  60  60  50  30   0
Victoria          59  66  56  73  56  /  90  80  50  20   0
Laredo            57  66  55  78  57  /  60  30  30  10   0
Alice             63  70  56  77  56  /  60  50  50  10   0
Rockport          63  70  57  72  61  /  60  70  60  30   0
Cotulla           54  64  51  78  53  /  70  40  30  10   0
Kingsville        64  73  58  77  58  /  60  50  50  20   0
Navy Corpus       64  70  58  72  62  /  60  60  60  30   0





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