Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 211139
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
539 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
TEXAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CATEGORIES RANGE FROM VFR AT ALI...
TO IFR AT CRP/LRD...TO MVFR AT VCT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STILL IMPACT
ALI AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MVFR GROUP. ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END VFR BY MIDDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG
WILL RETURN THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL VEER FROM NE TO E TODAY....TO
SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET TO PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MARINE ZONES TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...HOWEVER SOME GRADUAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO MID
60S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ENDING. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS S AND SSW FLOW SETS UP BEFORE TUESDAY/S COLD
FRONT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S LIKELY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WAA EXPECTED TO BE
OCCURRING AT START OF MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. IF SFC/LLVL WINDS CAN REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUE
SOUTH THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROG TO DEVELOP MON NIGHT ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT WAA AND FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR WESTERN
HALF OF CWA. SFC LOW SHIFTS SE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT PROG TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND SUNRISE
AND PUSH OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 50S TUES MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON. A THIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT THE
OVERALL RAIN POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THIS FRONT. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS /STRONGEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ SHOULD OCCUR AFTER FROPA TUE AS CAA DEVELOPS. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS AN ECMWF/NAM BLEND FOR POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AS
GFS DEEPENING OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE ALONG WITH DIGGING OF A MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. MAIN
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE CWA TUES NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS OCCURRING THROUGH MID WEEK. MAX TEMPS ON
WED MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE CHRISTMAS EVE
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDS IN CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOT GONE QUITE AS COLD AS MEX GUIDANCE JUST YET AS ECMWF INDICATES A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S BY
SUNRISE CHRISTMAS MORNING. CHRISTMAS DAY IS PROG TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES C FROM
THE DAY BEFORE...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PWATS NEARLY 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL/ MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 70S. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  55  75  63  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          63  53  75  61  61  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            67  55  80  55  65  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             64  53  78  60  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          63  57  70  62  64  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           66  51  79  52  64  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        65  54  78  61  66  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       64  58  72  63  65  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




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