Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 222344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR IN KLRD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS THIS EVENING. OVERALL THOUGH...RATHER
LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE FORECAST. FARTHER EAST...HAD
SOME LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AT KALI AND KVCT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS HIGHER THAN THEY ARE FORECAST TONIGHT...SO THINK FOG WILL
AGAIN BE A FACTOR IN THE EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
THUS...AM GOING MVFR BR (TEMPO IFR BR) AT KALI AND KVCT BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z (TEMPO BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z). WITH WEAK GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE SEA-BREEZE BUT STILL NOT AS
GUSTY AS USUAL BEHIND IT. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY (EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON) IS INSUFFICIENT AT
THIS TIME TO PUT IN THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER THERE BASED ON MOISTURE ADVECTION PROFILES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...TUTT LOW
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL GULF COAST IS PROG TO SLOWLY
SHIFT WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ELONGATED/SHEAR
AXIS WED NIGHT. HEIGHT FIELD SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH APPROACH
OF THE SYSTEM...AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHOULD
OCCUR WED/WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON
AVAILABILITY/PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE /ESPECIALLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ WITH THE NAM HAVING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WED AND GFS HAVING DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY /THOUGH A QUICK GLANCE SHOWS 18Z NAM MAY BE
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z GFS PWATS/. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND HAVE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE ZONES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO TUTT LOW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EVEN MORESO
WED NIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VRB LLVL WIND
FIELD...SHOULD RESULT IN MIN TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. COOLER H9 TO H7 LAYER TEMPS ON WED SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS SHEAR AXIS MOVES FURTHER
TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES BACK INTO THE AREA. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 105 DEGREES
NEAR LAREDO TO MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY MAKE
IT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS JUST YET...BUT RAIN
CHANCES POPS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  96  74  96  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
VICTORIA          74  97  74  97  76  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            80 104  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             75  99  74 100  74  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  92  78  92  79  /  10  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           76 102  75 103  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  74  98  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  91  80  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





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