Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 270517
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1217 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussioin below for the 06Z TAF`s.

&&

.AVIATION...

Cigs are expected to remain at VFR levels through most of the TAF
period, except in and around SHRA`s/TSRA`s. Convective activity is
currently quiet across S TX, but is expected to increase toward
sunrise, especially along the coast. The activity is expected to
shift west through Tue afternoon with the sea breeze then wane
once again Tue evening. Sfc winds are expected to be light and vrb
overnight, but generally east to northeast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 646 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 00Z TAF update.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers and tstms are diminishing in coverage, and
should be out of the vicinity of terminals shortly this evening.
VFR will prevail overnight. More shower and tstms development is
anticipated at and around terminals tomorrow morning, persisting
through the day. KLRD may see a temporary lowering of cigs to MVFR
during the early to mid morning, but otherwise expect VFR to
prevail at this terminal. To the east, ALI/CRP/VCT should remain
VFR through the period, though there could be a brief drop to MVFR
during any showers/tstms over the terminal tomorrow afternoon.
Anticipate winds to remain light, generally from the east to southeast
throughout the period.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Scattered convection ongoing this afternoon, with coverage greater
far inland along the convergence zone. Isolated activity moving
west across the coastal waters, with isolated development along
the coastal counties. Should see activity along the coastal region
to diminish shortly with the marine layer moving in. There is a
mid-level shortwave/low currently digging through northwest Texas
with convection firing up. Models take this shortwave and move it
farther south this evening. Convergence is expected to increase
late tonight through Tuesday with the shortwave from the north
and surface coastal trough along the southern Texas coast to the
south. Combined with PWATs over near or over 2 inches, expecting
another day of showers and thunderstorms with scattered to even
widespread coverage. Storm motion again remains rather weak so
slow moving storms again are expected. And with the deep tropical
moisture, locally heavy rain and flooding will be possible. No
capping and instability values ranging from 1500-2500 may allow
for a few strong storms with gusty winds possible hinted by the
inverted-v profiles. With the southern push from the shortwave,
moisture is slowly forced farther south, which should aide in
trending pops down through Tuesday night, but maintain chance
pops across the waters and across the coastal counties.
Daytime temperatures again should generally range in the lower
90s across much of the region, with the exception along the coast
where temps in the mid to upper 80s will be possible due to the
expected increase in rain and cloud coverage. Overnight lows to
generally range in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

Not too much of a change from the previous handful of forecast
packages. Still have the copious tropical moisture hanging around
through at least the end of the work week. Mostly diurnally driven
convection will persist through end of the work week as it taps
into this moisture with sea breeze and outflow boundary
interactions.

Poor mans surface pressure ensemble shows a tightening pressure
gradient in response to a deepening low over west Texas Thursday
into Friday. This will help to scatter out the convection a bit
more than we have seen recently so effectively we continue to
carry lower PoPs Thursday into Friday. Given we are still in full
on tropical airmass mode, the showers and thunderstorms will be
able to produce heavy and efficient rainfall. Temperatures climb
to slightly above seasonal averages with just a tad less cloud
cover and slightly drier air moving into the region around Friday.
This will be enough to boost heat index values back towards the
105 to 109 degree mark. Drier and warmer conditions still expected
for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  90  75  92  78  /  30  40  30  40  20
Victoria          74  90  74  92  76  /  30  40  30  50  20
Laredo            75  95  76 100  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
Alice             74  93  73  96  76  /  20  40  20  30  10
Rockport          79  89  79  91  81  /  30  50  40  50  30
Cotulla           74  95  74  99  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
Kingsville        75  91  74  95  77  /  20  40  20  30  20
Navy Corpus       79  90  80  93  83  /  30  50  40  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



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