Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 302010
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
310 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
HAS DRIFTED INLAND. THE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. TOMORROW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
MARINE AREAS AS MUCH DRIER AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOVES IN
TONIGHT. NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH WITH DPTS BACK
INTO THEM ID 70S. THIS...ALONG WITH THE DRYING ALOFT WILL BRING
THE FOG POTENTIAL BACK TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ONE FACTOR AGAINST THE
FOG FORMATION THOUGH WOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THAN LAST
NIGHT. STILL THINK MUCH OF THE INLAND AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
VIS REDUCTIONS. HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER
MIN TEMPS THAN LAST NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 70S TONIGHT...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA...AND SHOULD HAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE MARINE AREAS ONCE
AGAIN...MAY HAVE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE
LONG TERM WILL BE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WL MOVE ACRS
THE AREA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI.  AS THIS FRONT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASINGLY DEEP MSTR OVER THE ARA PCPN CHCS WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING.  KEPT POPS BELOW THE LIKELY RANGE AS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE MODELS BUT LATER UPDATES WILL LIKELY FTR
AN INCRS IN POPS AT SOME PERIOD.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ON PRETTY WET
SOILS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING.  WINDS AND WAVES WL LIKELY
BRIEFLY AMPLIFY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY.  MORNING LOWS COULD EVEN
CONCEIVABLY REACH THE U50S IN FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY
MORNING.  RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WL THEN LEAD TO
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LOW RAIN CHANCE FOR ERLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO CONTINUED TREND OF GENERALLY UNDERCUTTING
THE MEX HIGHS BUT HV NOT GONE AS COOL AS THE HPC NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  90  78  91  75  /  10  10  10  20  50
VICTORIA          73  90  76  93  72  /  10  10  10  20  50
LAREDO            76  94  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  50
ALICE             74  92  76  94  75  /  10  10  10  20  50
ROCKPORT          78  85  79  91  75  /  10  10  20  20  50
COTULLA           72  93  75  97  72  /  10  10  10  10  40
KINGSVILLE        75  91  77  94  76  /  10  10  10  20  40
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  79  91  78  /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM




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