Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 282007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
307 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...

For inland areas, fog will be the main concern tonight and Saturday
night, as light winds and high dew points will combine with
radiational cooling and bring fog to the inland areas. Fog not
expected near the coast. Could have some dense fog in the usual
areas. Confidence not high enough (and timing of fog, which could be
worst after sunrise Saturday in some areas) to issue any sort of
Dense Fog Advisory at this time. Lows tonight in the 60s once again,
and could not rule out an upper 50 in a low-lying area. Believe most
of the shower activity will stay in the gulfmex, although could have
something come in at the coast late (12Z). Given guidance is showing
very low POPs and will prefer to lean toward these numbers tonight
and Saturday, although did put 20 POPs near the SE inland areas
Saturday (and do have showers with 10 POPs too). Should see even
less activity Saturday night. For temperatures, pretty much going
with about a degree higher for minimum temperatures each day. Very
little change in the high temperature forecast, although did trend
the numbers down a degree here and there.


.COASTAL (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Concerning the tides and the rip current risk, looks like the
potential for a high risk of rip currents will continue through the
weekend, as deep easterly flow has been increasing swells. Have
already issued a High Rip Current Risk from now through early
Saturday evening, and this will likely be extended. For coastal
flooding, we are near high tide at Bob Hall Pier and it looks as
if that levels will remain below 2 feet MSL. Saturday afternoon
will be a different story. Will let the mid shift look at that.


.MARINE (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Sustained east flow continues through the period. Swells and wave
heights will increase. Showers should be a bit less in coverage
through the period, especially Saturday night as air should be a bit



.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Moisture will be on the rise early next week as persistent easterly
flow draws moisture into the western Gulf. This is all due to
persistent high pressure across the southeastern US an low pressure
across the southern Gulf of Mexico. For Sunday, moisture still
appears to be limited over land so will maintain dry conditions.
However over the gulf waters, with the gradual increase in moisture,
will continue slight to chance POPs Sunday. Overall, both GFS and
ECMWF bring in moisture with PWATs of 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Position of
highest moisture varies between models, but have at least been
consistent with bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to at
least the gulf waters and areas generally east of Highway 281.
Gradually through the week, the rain chances will slowly push
farther west to eventually include at least slight chance POPs
toward Cotulla and Laredo. The GFS has sped up timing of the next
frontal boundary following similar to the ECMWF. Right now it is
showing some time Friday into Friday night. Models are showing some
slight drying toward Friday, but lingering moisture will continue at
least slight chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
through mid-week should be persistent in the mid to upper 80s, but
begin to slowly cool for the following weekend.

Models also continue to show longer swell periods and elevated seas
through much of next week. This may continue to lead to minor tidal
overflow and an increased threat of rip currents through the
extended period.


Corpus Christi    66  87  67  88  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          60  88  62  87  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo            65  89  66  89  67  /  10  10  10   0  10
Alice             63  88  63  89  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
Rockport          70  85  71  85  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           63  89  63  90  64  /  10  10  10   0  10
Kingsville        62  88  63  89  67  /  10  20  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       73  85  73  85  72  /  10  20  10  10  10


TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening For the following
     zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.




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