Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 010543 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...EVEN THOUGH GOES SOUNDER SHOWS THAT AIR MASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS HAS DRIED OUT SOME DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THERE
REMAINS HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED AREAS OF STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE WEAK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHOULD SEE AREAS OF FOG FORM FROM ALICE TO
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS COULD
OCCUR FROM 09-13Z IN THE VICTORIA AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME PREVALENT BETWEEN 14-15Z. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD (500MB)
OVER THE COAST. COPIOUS MSTR REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL BEND/MSA
THIS EVENING (GOES SOUNDER PWAT VALUES.) NAM AND GFS DIVERGE WITH
REGARD TO CIN VALUES OVER LAND OVERNIGHT WITH GFS DEPICTING HIGH
VALUES AND THE CORRESPONDING NAM VALUES NEAR NIL. WL COMPROMISE
WITH INTRODUCTION OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITIES.) ANTICIPATE THAT WIND WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
BELOW SCEC OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT (NAM/GFS/LOCAL
ARW/RAP DETERMINISTIC.) THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR FOG OVER MAINLY
THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT YET NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO GRIDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  79  87  78  /  20  40  30  60  30
VICTORIA          77  94  77  91  76  /  20  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            78 100  80  96  80  /  10  20  10  40  20
ALICE             77  95  77  89  77  /  10  40  20  60  20
ROCKPORT          80  89  80  87  80  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  99  77  94  76  /  10  20  10  30  20
KINGSVILLE        78  91  78  88  79  /  20  40  30  60  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  88  80  87  80  /  30  40  30  60  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




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