Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




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