Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 310932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE
INDICATES HIGHER PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES (+2.0 INCHES) ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTH TX MORE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING TODAY AND CARRYING INTO THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY DRIER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FALLING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHRA OR STORM. KEPT 20 POP MENTIONED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. WRT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A GENERALLY TWO TO THREE
DEGREES WARMER WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC
GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT/SUGGEST A WEAK TROUGH OVER
THE MSA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. INTRODUCED 20 POPS OVER THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FOREGOING.
AFTERWARD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL PWAT
VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER THE CWA TO REMAIN GENERALLY 105F OR BELOW. AS
THE APPROXIMATELY E-W AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SWD NEAR THE
LATITUDES OF THE CWA/MSA...INCREASING UPPER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK/MODERATE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
CWA/MSA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  74  97  76  96  /  20  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          97  75 100  74  98  /  30  20  20  10  10
LAREDO           101  78 102  78 103  /  10  20  20  10  10
ALICE             97  75 100  75  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  91  79  91  /  20  20  20  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 102  77 103  /  20  20  20  10   0
KINGSVILLE        96  74  98  74  98  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  77  89  79  90  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
99...LONG TERM



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