Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290922
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM




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