Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 192041
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
341 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Scattered showers developed over the Coastal Waters late this
morning and have gradually shifted west throughout the afternoon.
This trend should continue through the evening hours as deeper
moisture (1.7 to 1.9" per the GOES Total Precipitable Water
imagery) pushes into the region. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected again tomorrow with the greatest
chances over the Coastal Waters and the Victoria Crossroads as
the highest moisture will be confined to the northeast areas of
the CWA.

The Coastal Flood Advisory continues for Nueces and Kleberg
counties as high astronomical tides will combine with moderate
onshore flow this evening. Tide levels will approach 2.0 to 2.4
feet above MSL, especially around high tide.


&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

An embedded short wave rounding the southern periphery of a long
wave trough, is expected to move across the region Saturday.
Sufficient moisture and instability combined with the short wave
will produce iso/sct convection across the eastern CWA and coastal
waters with the highest chc pops across the VCT area. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to increase late Saturday night
into Sunday as the main long wave trough axis tracks across the
region and pushes a cold front through the CWA. Models are in fair
agreement with FROPA off the coast before noon Sunday. Drier and
cooler conditions will filter into the area Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night with rain chcs ending from north to southeast. A strong
offshore flow is expected to develop across the waters through
Sunday night into early Monday with advisory conditions likely. The
remainder of the extended is expected to be much drier with clear to
mostly clear skies and more seasonable temps. Another reinforcing
surge of high pressure by mid week will maintain the dry and cool
temps and could result in advisory conditions once again across the
coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  86  73  89  72  /  30  20  20  20  30
Victoria          70  85  71  87  71  /  40  40  20  40  40
Laredo            68  88  71  92  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             67  88  71  92  71  /  20  20  10  10  20
Rockport          74  84  75  88  75  /  40  30  20  30  30
Cotulla           69  87  69  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  30
Kingsville        68  89  71  92  72  /  20  20  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       74  84  77  88  76  /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

TC/95...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM



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