Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 202344
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






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