Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 291107 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
607 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL S TX TERMINALS. CU FIELD XPCTD
TO DVLP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION /MAINLY EASTERN AREAS/ TODAY WITH
VFR CIGS. LIGHT/VRB SFC WINDS BECMG SERLY 10 TO 15 KTS MID/LATE
AFTN AS SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND...AND THEN BECMG LIGHT/VRB AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

NOTE TO USERS OF KLRD AWSS...SITE HAS BEEN REPORTING ERRONEOUS
CLOUD COVERAGE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CWA REMAINS IN BETWEEN MID
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST
TODAY. IMPRESSIVELY DRY AIRMASS ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PWATS
AROUND ONE INCH. DRY AIR WILL PERSIST TODAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
NICE DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES /WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES BUT
WITH TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS/. SHOULD SEE A SCATTERED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT ALL IN ALL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY
WITH SIMILAR MAX TEMPS TO FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROG TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. 00Z NAM IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL THAT THE SLOWER RETURN OF
MOISTURE REFLECTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC IS MORE REALISTIC.
THUS...HAVE NO MENTIONABLE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY...THOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CUMULUS FIELD ON SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MAX HEATING BY A DEGREE OR TWO /ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY/.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN ISSUE REMAINS THE
RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF CONTINUES TO COME IN MUCH WETTER (70 TO MORE
THAN 80 PERCENT MEAN RH VALUES) THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. BASED ON
POSITION OF UPPER LOW...WILL GO WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ECMWF IS
JUST WAY TOO OPTIMISTIC ON THE RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY SINCE EVEN
THAT MODEL IS SHOWING SUBSIDENCE AFTER TUESDAY (AND EVEN TUESDAY
EVENING). THUS...HAVE GENERALLY BLENDED THE SUPERBLEND WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY ESPECIALLY WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...GOING NO HIGHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER THE INLAND AREAS AFTER WEDNESDAY. AM GOING A BIT WARMER THAN
SUPERBLEND TOO FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THAT ECMWF 2 METER
TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER COOL (AND MUCH COOLER THAN GFS). JUST A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BASED ON NEW 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AND GFSX MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  69  93  73  94  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          92  68  92  70  92  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            99  73  99  76 101  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             96  67  96  71  98  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          91  74  90  79  92  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           99  70  97  72 101  /   0   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  69  95  72  96  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       89  75  89  77  90  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION


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