Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 012349 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
549 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARD VCT
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AT VCT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...AND THE FROPA THROUGH LRD-ALI-CRP BETWEEN 04-06Z. REMOVED
MENTION OF TSRA FOR VCT THIS EVENING WITH ONLY TEMPO -SHRA
POSSIBLE AS BEST DYNAMICS REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC WINDS
STARTING TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...WITH STRONGER WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30KTS IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL TAPER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE TO RETAIN THE GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS YET REMOVE THE GALE WARNING FROM THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OWING TO SST VALUES PER NASA/SPORT SST COMPOSITE.
ANTICIPATE GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE 06-15Z MONDAY PERIOD. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/NAM AND GFS DETERMINISTIC STREAMLINES DEPICT AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS/NRN TX AND ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM OVER
BAJA CA/NWRN MEXICO. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT THE
FORMER SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST
TNGT/MONDAY WHILE THE LATTER SYSTEM APPROACHES TX. IN RESPONSE
TO THE NRN SYSTEM...A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE CWA PER MSAS TRENDS...WL MOVE ACRS THE CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY
TNGT THEN MOVE ACRS THE MSA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MSTR
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS MAY RESULT IN
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT THE LATTER UPPER SYSTEM WL PROVIDE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST. WL FCST PCPN OVR THE WRN/CNTRL CWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
COLDER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
40S.

MARINE...OWING TO ANTICIPATED MIXING OF STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS CONSIDERING THE MUCH WARMER SST
VALUES...ANTICIPATE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS DRG THE 06-12Z OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND 12-15Z OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ADJUSTED THE
GALE WARNING TO REFLECT THE FOREGOING. EXPECT SCA OVER THE BAYS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTERWARD AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER E TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING OUT OF
NORTHERN MEXICO. DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS ARE PRESENTLY INDICATING
THAT PWATS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE (75TH PERCENTILE) WITH
MUCH OF THE THE LAYER ABOVE ROUGHLY 800MB SATURATED. BASED ON
ANTICIPATED ISENTROPIC PATTERN...BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD
BE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...THOUGH REALLY THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE
AFFECTED. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEGENERATES INTO AN OPEN TROUGH
AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND NWERLY
FLOW INTO THE MI/UPPER LEVELS. CMC/GFS/ECM/DGEX ARE IN SURPRISINGLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE MOMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO TREND
MARGINALLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS NEAR 40
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HIGHS AND
LOWS LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH DGEX COMING IN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
AND THE CANADIAN...TOO COLD AS IT OFTEN IS THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THIS REGION...FREEZING US OUT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S FOR A
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. BEYOND FRIDAY JUST WENT WITH THE SUPERBLEND AS
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT ON EVERYTHING BUT PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    46  54  44  55  50  /  20  10  20  60  70
VICTORIA          41  53  40  53  47  /  20  10  10  60  60
LAREDO            47  56  43  51  48  /  10  10  40  50  40
ALICE             45  55  42  54  49  /  20  10  20  50  60
ROCKPORT          47  53  46  53  50  /  20  10  10  60  70
COTULLA           44  56  42  52  46  /  10  10  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        47  55  44  55  50  /  20  10  20  50  60
NAVY CORPUS       48  53  46  57  53  /  20  10  10  60  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




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