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000
FXUS64 KCRP 121127
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
627 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GRAVITY WAVE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS WITH CLEARING AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED
THROUGH COT-BEA-VCT LINE AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH LRD-
ALI-CRP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MAIN ISSUED WILL BE THE
WIND. NORTH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING TO 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KTS IN SOME AREAS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AT 09Z COLD FRONT WAS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA. THERE IS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GRAVITY WAVE THAT
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE WAVE WAS NEAR A BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA LINE RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTH. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE RAPIDLY SOUTH GIVEN THE
6-8MB 3 HR PRESSURE RISES NOTED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH WIND
PEAKING LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DECREASING LATE
AFTERNOON. MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW WIND GUSTS
TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA...AND BORDER LINE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/LAREDO. OTHERWISE DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. COOL TONIGHT...WITH
WIND DROPPING OFF INLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA REGION DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S...40S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA THURSDAY...BUT COOL ACROSS THE
EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD SHELF WATERS.

MARINE...STRONG TO VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TOADY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS BY MID
MORNING...THUS A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS...WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG BUT NOT
QUITE GALE FORCE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY OVER SOUTH TEXAS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING
GUSTY WIND AND DRIER AIR TODAY. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE MID
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES MAY BE MARGINAL IN SOME AREAS...BUT WIND
GUSTS WILL BE WELL INTO RED FLAG CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. COAST WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT MAIN
UPPER TROUGH...MOVING EAST TOWARD TEXAS FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPMENT IN THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL FLOW...MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS. A 25-30KT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 295K COMBINED WITH
PWATS JUST OVER AN INCH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST MENTION LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MIX FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY...A SECOND SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
ELONGATING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS WHERE MODELS THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT FRONT. WITH SURFACE 1035MB
HIGH...SHOULD SEE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE AT A FAIR PACE TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH GOES AGAINST WHAT THE GFS SOLUTION SUGGEST. LEANED
MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY YET SLOWED DOWN JUST A BIT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS AS THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH WITH MOST
ACTIVITY AS ELEVATED WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS BEST FOR SUNDAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REDUCE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WITH DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY...WITH A
WARMING TREND IN STORE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  44  66  53  75  /   0   0   0  10  20
VICTORIA          66  37  66  48  71  /   0   0   0  10  20
LAREDO            69  45  70  53  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             68  43  68  48  75  /   0   0   0  10  20
ROCKPORT          65  47  64  54  70  /   0   0   0  10  20
COTULLA           66  39  67  48  75  /   0   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        69  43  67  50  76  /   0   0   0  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       66  49  64  56  72  /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...
     GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
     MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...
     WEBB.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

JR/76...AVIATION