Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 192336
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
536 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WEST...BUT HOLDING ON IN THE
EAST MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED TAF...ESPECIALLY FOR ALI AS CLEARING
LINE CURRENTLY VERY NEAR THIS TERMINAL. THINK ALI SITE WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. WHETHER IT STAYS CLEAR OR THE CLOUDS
BACK INTO TO AREA AGAIN IS THE QUESTION. HAVE TRIED TO COVER THIS
WITH TEMPO GROUPS EARLY. LRD SITE SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...GOING MVFR EARLY MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG AT LRD AND ALI SITES. VCT/CRP SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO IFR DURING
THE NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS HOLD OVER THE REGION. THINK ALL SITES
SHOULD GO MVFR LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND AN OVERCAST MID LEVEL DECK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST TODAY TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. ISOLD -SHRA`S
CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME EROSION OF CLOUDS HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID SECTIONS OF S TX...HOWEVER LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MODELS PROG LIGHT PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW RELATIVELY DRIER
NEAR SFC LAYER. IF FOG DOES DVLP...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST 5SM OR BETTER...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FCST. WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20KT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7FT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z
SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BE BELOW ADVISORY BY AROUND 12Z BUT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FCST THRU SAT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OVC CONDITIONS. WENT WITH
PC ACROSS THE W TO MC SKIES ACROSS THE E. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP HIGHS ON
SAT FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN CWA. BY SAT
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN WITH OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS SAT EVENING
THEN SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WARMING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...CAA AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
MN TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST.  A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WITH MOSTLY
ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WK.  WK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AXIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THE S/WV TROUGH AXIS WL HAVE PASSED EAST AND USHER
IN DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND S/SW FLOW ON MONDAY...AFTN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S IN
MOST AREAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY/SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT.  SFC AND UPR
LVL RIDGING WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
KEEPING A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND AGAIN ON NEXT FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  60  50  63  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
VICTORIA          48  59  45  62  47  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  62  50  66  51  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             50  60  49  64  50  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          50  58  51  62  53  /  10  10  20  30  10
COTULLA           46  60  45  64  48  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        51  60  50  64  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  60  52  62  55  /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





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