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000
FXUS64 KCRP 050004
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
604 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
IMPACTING ALL TERMINAL SITES. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY CIGS FALL
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH IFR AT CRP/ALI (AND MVFR VSBYS) AND
MVFR AT VCT/LRD. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP
WITH THIS FRONT AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL COME WITH THIS FRONT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY THURSDAY. INITIAL WINDS BACK AND BEGIN INCREASING BETWEEN
02Z-04Z...WITH STRONG BLAST KICKING IN BETWEEN 05Z-07Z AT TERMINAL
SITES. CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY BEHIND FROPA TO MVFR AT
LRD/ALI/CRP...THOUGH STAY AT HIGH END IFR LVLS AT VCT OVERNIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS (MVFR) HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH NORTH WINDS
WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED AND GUSTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE HILL COUNTRY AS OF
WRITING. MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN TIER AROUND 8PM...MOVING OFFSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS MAY BACK AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A RESULT OF
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AHEAD...AND WITH
LAPS CAPE VALUES INCREASING...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TO CONTINUE LIKELY SHOWERS FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE LACK OF MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT MAY BE LIFTED
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONG NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH COLD AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 20 ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FROM TILDEN TO
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG
THE COASTAL BEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THIS HAS PROMPTED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE COASTAL BEND FROM KLEBERG COUNTY NORTH TO CALHOUN COUNTY.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AS UPGLIDE REMAINS AT 305K. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR THE
MOST THE DAY THURSDAY...BREAKING SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE WITH CAA BUILDING
IN. THE ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE AS NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT
FREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...LOOKING A CURRENT CAMERA FOOTAGE FOR LOCAL BAYS...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE DENSE FOG IS NOTICEABLE...HOWEVER AM EXPECTING
THIS TO BE BRIEF WITH REDEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AND CONTINUING THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FROPA.

THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...STILL LOOKS DRY FOR FRIDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. BASED ON MOISTURE
RETURN...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
THINK THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF...WITH RAIN CHANCES
STARTING NO EARLIER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER
THAT...MODELS ARE TENDING TO VERY SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT...WITH THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (WHICH WILL STILL BE TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA) TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND MAINLY OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY (POP
VALUES STILL WITHIN ISC COLLABORATION STANDARDS). IT WILL BE DRY
ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION POPS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
MODELS ARE PUSHING THE TROUGH TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST (ESPECIALLY TRENDS)...WITH A VERY GRADUAL WARM
UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY WHERE WE
ACTUALLY MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TOO...AND GENERALLY WENT
WITH THE SUPERBLEND VALUES SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    38  40  36  49  42  /  70  40  10  10  10
VICTORIA          34  41  32  51  39  /  70  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            40  41  36  48  41  /  70  30  10  10  10
ALICE             37  41  35  48  41  /  70  40  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          39  41  37  50  44  /  70  40  10  10  10
COTULLA           38  41  33  49  40  /  70  30  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        39  41  36  48  41  /  70  40  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       40  42  38  49  45  /  70  40  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...GOLIAD...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...
     VICTORIA.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION