Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251715 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1215 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 18z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible over the coastal sites through 21z with MVFR
ceilings and vsbys expected with the convection. Isolated pockets
of IFR vsbys will be possible in heavy rain within thunderstorms.
Convection expected to spread inland into the Brush Country
through the afternoon affecting LRD between 21z-01z. Mid and high
level clouds will linger over the region tonight but drier air in
the low levels will diminish rain chances for tonight. Expect MVFR
ceilings to develop around 08z across South Texas with patchy fog
possible at VCT providing MVFR vsbys. Ceilings will lift to range
from 2500-3500 feet by 14z Sunday. There may be some isolated
showers form on Sunday but chances look remote at this time.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1017 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows the TUTT low over northern
Coahuila about 140 miles northwest of Laredo moving to the
northwest. Difluent upper level flow will remain over South Texas
to the southeast of the low. 12z CRP sounding showed abundant
moisture in place over the region with precipitable water value of
2.34 inches. GFS model seems to have the best handle of this
moisture axis this morning. Low level speed convergence along the
coast will remain a focus for convective development through the
late morning hours with activity moving steadily inland this
afternoon. Current POP forecast on track with changes made to the
sky cover grids to show more cloud cover and made some minor
adjustments to the temperature grids.

MARINE...Made adjustments to wind speeds to show SCEC conditions
over the Gulf waters through mid-afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  78  93  77  92  /  60  10  10  10  20
Victoria          91  76  92  74  93  /  50  10  10  10  20
Laredo            96  78  96  76  98  /  30  20  10  10  10
Alice             93  76  96  75  95  /  50  10  10  10  10
Rockport          88  81  90  80  91  /  60  10  10  10  20
Cotulla           95  77  96  75  98  /  40  20  20  10  10
Kingsville        92  76  94  76  94  /  50  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       88  81  91  80  91  /  60  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



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