Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 281735 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1135 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE WHETHER AREA WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN WHETHER WIND SHEAR WILL BE
AN ISSUE. FIRST ISSUE...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT DID
KEEP THE MVFR CIGS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z (SEE
INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR SPECIFICS). THIS IS BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES
WHICH ARE RESPECTABLE BUT GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL NOT
BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. SECOND ISSUE...THINK WIND SHEAR
WILL NOT BE BELOW CRITERION AT KLRD AND KCRP (WINDS UP ENOUGH AT
SURFACE AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET ALOFT)...BUT
COULD BE CLOSE AT KALI AND KVCT. SINCE KALI ALREADY HAD MENTION OF
WIND SHEAR...KEPT IT THERE BUT ALSO ADDED IT TO KVCT TERMINAL.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD MIX OUT AOA 14Z ALL TERMINAL ENDING WIND SHEAR
AND MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
FROM KINGSVILLE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO HEBBRONVILLE AND ZAPATA WITH
LIFR VSBYS...WHILE LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS.
WILL SHOW PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AT ALI/LRD WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS
AT BOTH SITES BUT SHOW POSSIBILITY OF LIFR CIGS AT LRD UNTIL 15Z.
FOG MAY ALSO REACH CRP AREA THROUGH 14Z ALSO. BAND OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR COASTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE MID COAST
REGION. THIS AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE COULD PROVIDE BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS AT VCT LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA BY 16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL BEND. HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH JET INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM BY 08Z SAT.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH OVER ALI TO MENTION LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AT LRD AND SHOULD
SEE FOG DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AGAIN WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE BY
09Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG
THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH NEAR BAFFIN BAY
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING DIFFUSE. LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER OVER INLAND SECTIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...PATCHY FOG
WILL BE PREVALENT EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COVER
MOST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
30-35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY
LATE FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME
BREEZY OVER THE COASTAL BEND ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON A
CONTINUED TREND UPWARD.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVES
NORTH AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT WITH
WINDS STRENGTHENING TO SCEC RANGE FOR THE GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SCEC RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND COULD APPROACH SCA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND AHD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ONSHORE WIND IS PROGD
TO USHER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO THE E CWA ON SUNDAY FOR ISOLD
-SHRA`S AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHCS INCREASE
TO 20-30 PERCENT BY MON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES S TX...WITH THE
BETTER CHC BEING ACROSS THE NE CWA. DID NOT MENTION TSRA`S DUE TO
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. THE FRONT IS PROGD TO BE NEARING THE COAST
BY 00Z TUE AND COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE WATERS BY
06Z TUE. LEANED TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR MON NIGHT/TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
BY TUE AFTERNOON. MX TEMPS ON TUE ARE PROGD TO BE IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE. RESIDUAL ISOLD -SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ON TUE. A WEAK COASTAL TROF/ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY TUE NIGHT/WED
AND USHERS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO S TX BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHRA`S TO THE AREA FOR WED/THU...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  59  79  65  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          73  57  77  63  78  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            76  54  82  61  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             76  55  80  63  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  62  76  66  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           75  52  81  59  80  /   0   0  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  57  79  64  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  63  76  68  78  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




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