Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 181730
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FIRING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF
THE EASTERN THREE TAF SITES. THIS CONVECTION IS CREATING IRREGULAR
CIGS...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS
WILL LOWER AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG INLAND AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS CURRENT SYSTEM SLIDES EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FROM VFR AT
ALI/CRP TO MVFR AT VCT...AND LIFR AT LRD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED FOR
NOW VCTS AT ALI/VCT/CRP. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY...PERHAPS LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEATHER IS MUCH MORE QUIET
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE MARINE AREAS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHS
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BIG BEND INTO MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LOW...SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERING AFTER LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION...WITH SBCAPES
AOA 2000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY HAZARDS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...GFS THE STRONGEST WITH THE FRONT...ECMWF RATHER WEAK. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OFF AND ON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD AS THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNALS TO FOCUS ON TO GIVE A
MORE CLEAR PICTURE. AFTER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON MONDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH PWAT VALUES BACK UP OVER
1.5 INCHES BY TUESDAY...AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE WEAK. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  68  86  68  77  /  50  30  20  20  30
VICTORIA          82  66  87  62  76  /  50  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            89  67  92  67  78  /  30  20  20  20  30
ALICE             85  67  89  67  78  /  50  30  20  20  30
ROCKPORT          78  70  80  68  75  /  50  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           86  65  91  64  77  /  40  20  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        85  68  88  68  78  /  50  30  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  69  80  69  75  /  50  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JV/71...AVIATION


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