Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 300146 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
846 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Lowered POPs and winds based on observations (radar
and satellite for the POPs and MTR/BOY for the winds). IR
satellite and radar shows little activity in Mexico west of our
area, indicating ridge is holding strong and mid level drying is
more with NAM/GFS solution and not so much ECMWF. Will maintain a
slight chance for showers/storms out west, but surface winds
(providing orographic lift) are weakening and cap is building.
Still, could see some mainly showers later tonight/overnight so
kept 20 POPs to the west. Otherwise, winds are a bit lower than
forecast and adjusted those just a bit. Overall temperatures were
good for now and did not make any major changes (no change to
minimum temperature forecast) except out west where needed for a
few hours this evening. Rest of parameters look fine for now.
Product updates are out.

&&

.MARINE...Looks like winds will be just below SCEC values for the
most part, although early winds near the southern areas (mainly
nearshore) will be near 15 knots. Will make final call at issuance
time whether the removal of SCEC is warranted.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...See 00Z aviation discussion.

AVIATION...Pretty much going with a persistence (i.e. "Perfect
Prog") forecast for ceilings and visibilities, as low level
moisture and mid level dry air fairly similar. Thus, will see
MVFR conditions eastern terminals before sunrise (mainly after 06Z
but could have tempo MVFR before that). VFR conditions AOA 20/15Z.
Winds diminish tonight with no gusts, then generally SE winds on
Monday with a few gusts (nothing too windy though). Could also
have some light fog at KALI and KVCT for a short time (5SM BR).
Finally, could have a shower near KLRD late tonight/overnight (ABT
06Z tempo) and think thunder potential will be on the low side at
this time (thus went with SHRA as will be from mid level from
convective blow-off from Mexican storms.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...Main forecast issue
will be whether thunderstorms occur across the region tonight.
Latest mesoanalysis shows MLCapes about 3000 to 3500 across the
region with little in the way of capping. However, forcing has
been lacking thus far this afternoon. The possibility does exist
for some isolated convection this afternoon mainly over the Rio
Grande Plains. A shortwave trough will ride atop upper level ridge
and initiate convection to our NW late this afternoon and evening.
If thunderstorms are able to organize into a complex, these
thunderstorms may approach the western parts of the area later on
this evening/tonight. Otherwise, a warm night is expected across
the area with lower to mid 70s over inland locations with upper
70s long the coast.

The initial shortwave will move east tonight into tomorrow
morning. Isolated diurnal convection will be possible during the
day and will keep pops around 20 percent. Another hot day will be
likely tomorrow with mid/upper 90s over the western zones to upper
80s over the Victoria Crossroads. Models are advertising another
shortwave trough moving across NE Mexico Monday night. Additional
showers and thunderstorms may move out of Mexico and impact the
Rio Grande Plains.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...H5 disturbance advecting
eastward along the northern periphery of a mid level ridge on Tuesday
will lead to isolated to scattered convection across primarily inland
areas in the afternoon. Capping inversion of greater than 11C at H7
may limit precip for most of the day until heights begin to lower by
late afternoon. Best convective chances will be across the Brush
Country where moisture depth and ascent is prog to be the greatest.
An additional and stronger H5 s/w trough is prog to move across the
CWA Wednesday...bringing additional chances of convection. An
increase in H25 difluence and a weaker thermal inversion /as compared
to Tuesday/ should allow for scattered afternoon convection nearly
CWA-wide. Have gone likely POPs Wed across the NW CWA where
difluence is prog to be the greatest. Parent mid/upper level trough
across the SW CONUS is prog to begin to shift east Wed Night/Thurs
which will aid in sending a cold front southward towards the region.
After a lull in activity Wednesday evening...activity should
redevelop overnight as surface-H85 front approaches the region.
Surface front is prog to stall somewhere across the CWA /or nearby/
Thursday through Friday...with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing as a result. Mesoscale processes will
ultimately aid in determining where greatest convective bands will
develop...and for now will nearly broadbrush POPs until finer details
come more apparent. By late in the week/weekend...main mid/upper
level low is prog to cut off and drift across TX...with associated
main trough axis bisecting the CWA. This will maintain chances of
precip through the remainder of the long term forecast for primarily
eastern areas of the CWA. Chances should gradually decrease as
greater moisture depth shifts eastward. Most locations are currently
expected to receive average rainfall totals of 1" to 3" for the
second half of the week...with isolated higher amounts possible.
Warm/Hot and humid conditions will prevail through mid week with
thickening cloud cover and precip allowing for cooler max temps by
late in the week. Once boundary pushes through the entire CWA on
Friday...am expecting a decrease in the higher humidity values and
somewhat cooler max/min temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  89  76  89  75  /  10  10  10  20  10
Victoria          73  87  72  89  73  /  10  20  10  20  10
Laredo            76  97  76  95  76  /  20  20  30  40  20
Alice             75  91  73  91  74  /  10  20  20  30  10
Rockport          78  85  78  88  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           74  92  74  92  72  /  20  20  40  40  30
Kingsville        76  90  75  92  76  /  10  20  20  20  10
Navy Corpus       79  85  78  88  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM


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