Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 062140
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WIND SPEEDS WILL
RAPIDLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
SETTLES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS CONDUCIVE FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE. COULD STILL SEE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY
WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
SEND THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT)...WILL EXTEND THE SCA UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY FOR THE
BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SCA FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW
CRITERIA AROUND 04Z SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 23Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
OFFSHORE AT ONSET OF LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE DRY...THIS FRONT WILL
STILL HAVE STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINLY
ALIGNED NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH A BAND OF STRONGER 925MB WINDS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS MID-DAY.
MARINE ZONES LIKELY TO SEE MORE WIND...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THE WIND MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY BENIGN. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S. HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LOW
WITHOUT A TRUE ONSHORE FLOW. NOT UNTIL SATURDAY WILL WE BEGIN TO SEE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO START BRINGING MOISTURE BACK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS INCREASING SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT CURRENT
MOISTURE FORECAST IS TOO LOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    39  69  44  65  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          34  66  40  63  37  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            38  73  45  68  41  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             35  70  41  67  39  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          41  65  45  65  43  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           33  71  41  67  39  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        35  70  41  67  40  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       44  66  49  65  44  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM


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