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000
FXUS64 KCRP 111132
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS HAVE BEEN MOVG N INTO THE
CRP TAF SITE AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALI AND LRD AS WELL THROUGH
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT VFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO S TX OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF
LOWERING OF THE CLOUDS BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
LIGHT AND VRB WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE MAINLY NE TODAY THEN
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE N OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SPREADING N INTO S TX THIS MORNING WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. AM EXPECTING CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION...A
CUT OFF LOW SITTING ACROSS BAJA CA AND A WEAKENING SFC HIGH ACROSS
E AND S TX...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN PROGD DURING
THE DAY OTHER THAN SOME MODIFICATION OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT.
THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TODAY`S HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS S TX. AS FOR PRECIP
TODAY...SUFFICIANT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WARRANTS KEEPING A SLIGHT CHC OF -RA OVER MAINLY THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA IS PROGD TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY NE TONIGHT WHILE A LONG WAVE TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE
PLAINS LEADING TO SOME AMPLIFICATION ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL HELP
PUSH REINFORCING LOW LEVEL/SFC HIGH PRESSURE INTO S TX TONIGHT.
OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO THU. SIG PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. THU HIGHS ARE
PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH GENERALLY MID 50S AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. N
WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING
FOR MAINLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT AM EXPECTING OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS TO GENERALLY BE HIGH END CAUTION.WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX
BY THU AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF -RA TODAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW...
CURRENTLY CUT OFF IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST...WILL OPEN AND SHEAR EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THURSDAY
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER WEAK FORCING DOES COME ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH. THIS MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
BEND AND GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH
BREEZY NORTH WIND DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND COOLER AIR
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO CLEARING/POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE...MAINTAINING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT ECMWF IS
KEEPING CLOUDS AND QPF AROUND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GFS AND CANADIAN DAMPEN THE SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...AND CLEARING TAKING PLACE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW AM FOLLOWING THE
LATTER SOLUTION...WITH CLEARING AND DRY...COOL CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BY
TUESDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  43  56  49  67  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          57  37  54  43  63  /  10  10  10  10  30
LAREDO            62  44  56  46  65  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             57  40  55  47  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          59  42  55  50  65  /  10  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           59  38  54  43  61  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        58  43  56  48  68  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       60  46  58  52  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION