Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 132358
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
558 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DECOUPLING. MAIN CONCERN THEREAFTER WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND
COASTAL BEND IMPACTING KBEA-KVCT TERMINALS WHERE IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TOWARD MORNING AS WINDS
INCREASE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEN VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
THE FOG POTENTIAL...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
FARTHER WEST. A BETTER LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TONIGHT (FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IF EVEN STILL PRESENT...WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT)...AND
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND THUS FOG WILL BE HARDER TO
COME BY. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND
HAVE GONE WITH AREAS OF FOG THERE. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...PATCHY
AT BEST AND THINK IT WILL MAINLY BE STATO-CU/STRATUS WHICH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE. ALSO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE COMING IN
FROM MEXICO. THUS...LESS FOG OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD
NOT BE AS COLD OVERNIGHT AS THIS MORNING...WITH 50S MOST AREAS AND
NEAR/AROUND 60 TOWARD THE COAST. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OUT TO THE WEST WHERE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST
(COOLER NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER). FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THINK THAT THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR FOG WILL OCCUR (AND MORE WIDESPREAD). TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND...NEAR OR LOWER 60S COAST. NO RAIN
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UPPER SUPPORT FORECAST TO
COME DOWN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WHICH WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA. FINALLY...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR SUNDAY...AS WARM TEMPERATURES
AND MODERATE DEW POINTS BRING RH VALUES IN THE 30S FOR THE
AFTERNOON. A SMALL PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN INLAND COASTAL
COUNTIES SHOW CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS BORDERLINE AND
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEW POINTS FALL (IF
THEY EVEN DO) DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS
AND GULF WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. DEW POINTS IN THE GULF
WATERS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH SHELF WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALREADY...THINK SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT QUITE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SOME FOG WAFT
OVER THE BAYS/WATERWAYS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING AS DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES CONVERGE WITH THE AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK FRONT WILL CLIP THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA MONDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  BEYOND THAT DEEP RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE OR LESS ONSHORE AT TIMES BUT OVERALL NUMBERS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE LOOK FINE.  PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
MORNING FOG AS WELL...ESPLY TUE AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    58  81  60  82  56  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          54  78  55  77  50  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  85  56  85  56  /   0   0   0  10   0
ALICE             54  85  57  85  54  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  76  61  76  57  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  85  53  84  52  /   0   0   0  10   0
KINGSVILLE        56  83  58  80  55  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  78  62  75  58  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...AVIATION


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