Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 281135
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
635 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 12Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Today...MVFR becoming VFR by late morning. Morning sounding is
showing 45 knots of southerly wind around 2000 feet so we have
added LLWS to the terminals through sunrise, except for KLRD where
LLWS does not look likely. Stronger onshore flow once again with
gusts into the lower-30 knots range possible, especially closer
to the coast. High confidence.

Friday Night...MVFR. Shortly after sunset expect conditions to
drop back to MVFR as more stratus moves in from the coast. Gusts
look to continue upward of 25 knots. High confidence.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 443 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Honestly hope you had the chance to enjoy the warm but comfortable
weather we had yesterday because we are heading right back into the
thick of it today and tomorrow. Onshore flow increases as surface
low pressure to our northwest deepens. This continues to bring low-
level moisture back into the region with dewpoints climbing into the
low to mid-70s...gross! Breezy conditions are expected with 45 to 50
knots of low-level flow off the KCRP VAD which should allow for 35
mph gusts to develop by early afternoon. There could be a brief
period later this afternoon where we near Wind Advisory criteria,
frequent 40 mph gusts, but not entirely confident that we`ll see a
large area more-so pockets of it right along the coast so we hold
off on any headlines at this time. With the addition of the
higher moisture and temperatures nearing triple digits across the
Southern Coastal Bend and Brush Country, we did issue a Special
Weather Statement as we expect heat indices to top 105 degrees
this afternoon.

Much can be said about Saturday as did about today. Heat, humidity,
and wind will continue to be an issue across the region. We could
near heat advisory criteria across portions of the Southern Coastal
Bend tomorrow afternoon, so it is something to watch.

Marine...SCA conditions expected to commence later this afternoon in
response to a deepening low pressure system to our northwest. SCEC
conditions are expected to begin later this morning and continue
through the afternoon hours. SCA conditions may develop across the
Southern Bays and Waterways earlier than current thinking so will
need to watch trends throughout the morning hours.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Models are in pretty good agreement with the upper level low moving
eastward across TX Sat night through Sun. Models also in agreement
with the associated cold front moving through S TX Sat night, but
differ on how far south the convection will develop. The GFS
currently is the more aggressive model bringing a convective line
into the CWA Sat night. The front and assoc front are expected to
move into the northwestern CWA Sat evening then continue to push
southeastward reaching the coast around or shortly after midnight.
The front is progged to be completely through the marine zones by
early Sun morning. The main question is whether convection will
make it into the CWA and how strong the convection will be. The
Storms Prediction Center has the northern portions of the CWA in a
marginal risk through Sat night. Models are in agreement with the
atmosphere being very unstable but also very capped. Convergence
ahd of the front is progged to be very strong and upper level
dynamics will be in place. There will be a small window when the
cap is progged to weaken along the bdry. This could be enough to
allow convection to become strong, possibly severe right along and
just behind the bdry. The better chances of severe are expected
to be north and northeast of the CWA. For now, kept the higher
pops across the north and northeast CWA Sat night, then shifting
east through Sun. Drier and cooler conditions are expected behind
the bdry along with a strong offshore flow. Onshore flow returns
Sun night/Mon bringing low level moisture and warmer temps back
into S TX ahead of the next storm system. Another system/cold
front are progged to move through S TX between Wed and Thu with
the GFS being a tad faster than the ECMWF. Both models prog precip
with the front and drier/cooler conditions behind the front for
the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  77  93  67  82  /  10  10  10  30  10
Victoria          90  75  89  63  77  /  10  10  20  60  10
Laredo            99  74 102  62  83  /  10  10  10  10   0
Alice            100  75 102  66  83  /  10  10  10  20  10
Rockport          88  78  88  68  78  /  10  10  10  40  10
Cotulla           98  73  99  60  82  /  10  10  10  30  10
Kingsville        99  76 100  66  84  /  10  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       89  78  90  68  79  /  10  10  10  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning For the
     following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday
     For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to
     Port O`Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION


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