Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 301721
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1221 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS TO 18Z AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DRAPED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS DISSIPATED...BEING REPLACED BY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BRINGS LOW CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS
TO TERMINALS. MOSTLY CLOUD FREE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. LOWEST
CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST AT MVFR LEVELS. VSBY OK. LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS TO 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS UPDATED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND IFR
VIS AT KCRP. EXPECTING FOGGY CONDITIONS TO LINGER FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS AND THEN TRANSITION TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ALSO UPDATED
KVCT...MVFR TEMPO IFR VIS DID NOT LINGER AS LONG AS
ANTICIPATED...BUT MVFR CIGS DID...SO AMENDED TO REFLECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MID MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...NOTED MAINLY BE WINDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD...AND DRIER AIR ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAD SOME
CONVECTION EARLIER IN GULF WATERS JUST NORTH OF MATAGORDA
BAY...BUT THIS HAS DISSIPATED. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS DEVELOP OFFSHORE OR IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
DAY. DESPITE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLDER AIRMASS REMAINS TO THE
NORTH TODAY...AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THOUGH A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. BETTER PUSH OF COOLER
AIR COMES IN LATER TONIGHT AS CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WILL STILL SEE MILD LOWS TONIGHT...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE IN THE
EXTENDED REMAINS HOW TO HANDLE THE UPPER SYSTEM WHICH MODELS ARE
HANDLING DIFFERENTLY. MODEL RUNS FOR YESTERDAY WERE SLOWER...NOW
THERE IS A TURN TOWARD BEING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL...MODELS
DIFFER ON PROGRESSION...WITH CANADIAN BEING THE FASTEST AND THE
ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST. THINK MAIN ISSUES WITH TIMING WILL DEAL
WITH WHEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END...SINCE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. AM KIND OF LEANING MORE
TOWARD A COMPROMISE SOLUTION (LIKE GFS)...WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF ON
WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES LESS AVAILABLE (ALSO LINES UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES). THUS...AFTER A QUIET AND COOL START TO THE
WEEKEND (AND HALLOWEEN NIGHT)...WILL SEE A QUICK WARM UP...WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AFTER SUNDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT LATE WHERE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS NEAR COAST AND GULFMEX.
THEN...RAIN CHANCES KICK UP ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHERE IT APPEARS
THAT SOME LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. BASED
ON MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS...AND THE FACT THAT GFS AND CANADIAN WILL
HAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING (THUS BRINGING IN
THE DRIER AIR)...WILL DIMINISH POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S MANY INLAND AREAS
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...WITH MAINLY 80S ON SUNDAY BUT
INCREASING CLOUDS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING
80F TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. AM GOING TO FORECAST COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF
AREA AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  67  80  55  76  /  20  20  20   0   0
VICTORIA          85  62  79  46  73  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            89  67  80  57  78  /  10  20  20  10   0
ALICE             87  65  81  52  78  /  20  20  20   0   0
ROCKPORT          84  69  79  57  74  /  10  10  20   0   0
COTULLA           87  65  80  49  75  /  10  20  20   0   0
KINGSVILLE        86  66  82  52  77  /  20  20  20   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  70  79  61  75  /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

10...AVIATION





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