National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KCRP 200928
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
428 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION DRG THE
PERIOD. GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT MAINTAIN PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES (GREATER PWAT ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BARRY PROGD TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA) DRG THE PERIOD AND THE NAM PROGS
LOW CIN/HIGH CAPE THIS AFTN. WL INTRODUCE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND THIS AFTN
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST 105F MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
OVER MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTN. WL NOT INTRODUCE CONVECTION FOR
FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER AFTN CIN VALUES (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)

&&

.MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT VERTICAL MIXING OF GREATER MOMENTUM FROM
ALOFT WL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS AREAWIDE
THIS AFTN/FRIDAY AFTN AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
TODAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. SLIGHT WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REMOVED POPS FOR SUNDAY...HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP IF ENOUGH LIFT OCCURS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVERGENCE OCCURS ON MONDAY...SO LEFT IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS
REMOVED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...
PROGRESSING INLAND MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AM NOT EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT TO REACH FAR INLAND AS A RELATIVELY STRONG CAP WILL BE
OVER THE REGION. INCREASED TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
H1000-H500 HEIGHT DIFFERENCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    94  78  94  79  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          96  74  96  75  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           101  76 101  78 101  /  10   0  10  10  10
ALICE             97  75  97  75  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  80  90  80  92  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           99  74  99  75  99  /  10   0  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        95  76  95  77  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  89  79  92  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM