242
FXUS64 KCRP 201124
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
624 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Elevated heat risk of 110F or greater expected Tuesday for south
  Texas.

The pattern hasn`t changed much from yesterday with the 500 mb ridge
axis beginning to rotate into the region, with a sfc ridge located
in the central Appalachians, and stretches SW into South Texas. A
sfc trough is to the west in central Mexico and to the north in the
panhandle region. The pressure gradient between the sfc ridge and
the low to the west, is tighter than yesterday, so there is a bit
more southeast winds over the region. The wind has been part of the
region that there is less fog overnight, however, the low clouds
have moved across south Texas again. Further upstream, a 500 mb
trough is beginning to work its way into Baja California, which is
producing sfc lows in the southern Rockies.

Today, as the 500 mb trough moves over southern California and the
Baja, the 500 mb ridge amplifies during the day, and the southerly
flow continues over south Texas. Temperatures continue to warm a few
more degrees over yesterday. The expectation is for highs to reach
around 90 along the Coastal Bend, to the 100-105 range in the
western Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains. Humidity is the key
to the heat index, with the dewpoints out west mixing out to the mid
to upper 60s today, and while the dewpoints are in the 70s in the
east, the temperatures are around 90, so the heat advisory level
(110F) won`t be reached.

Tonight, The 500 mb trough moves NE into the Central Plains, keeping
the ridge in Texas a bit flat overnight, with the sfc low in Mexico,
looking more like a heat low. So no expectations for precipitation.
The winds will be stronger overnight, so that fog continues to be
limited over the region.

Tuesday, the day looks warmer as the 500 mb ridge remains over the
region for another day. The sfc ridge continues over south Texas
with the axis along the Gulf coast before it bends norther into the
Mid-Atlantic States. All this to say that we get a few more degrees
warmer. The Rio Grande Plains will be closer to 105F The 100F
isotherm looks to bisect the forecast area, and the Victoria
Crossroads and the Coastal Bend are 90-100. The moisture out west
isn`t expected to mix out as much with the dewpoints remaining in
the 70s longer than the day before. The expectation is that the
dewpoints will be 70 or greater from roughly east of I-35 (60-90%).
Dewpoints are expected to be greater than 75 along the Coastal Bend
and up into Victoria. So, there is a decent swath of 110 or greater
Heat index values from inland Kleberg and Nueces west to the Rio
Grande, and north toward McMullen and LaSalle counties. The new
national heat risk map has that same area in the major heat risk
level (3 out of 4).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the weekend

No changes to the previous forecast package as an upper level ridge
and persistent onshore flow continues to dominate the forecast. High
temperatures will range from the low 90s along the coast to around
105 across the Brush Country. Heat index values will increase from
the 110-114 range Wednesday and Thursday to the 115-120 range across
the Southern Coastal Bend and the Brush Country Friday and through
the weekend. This will result in a Major to Extreme heat related
impacts. Heat Advisories are likely each day, with Excessive Heat
Warnings possible by the end of the week. Please be very cautious if
you are outside: drink plenty of water, bring pets inside, take
breaks, and wear light, loose clothing.

Several shortwaves are expected to move through as a boundary stalls
to the north of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
stay to the north of the area Wednesday and Thursday. Hazy
conditions will continue through the week as the fires continue to
burn well to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

As has happened the last several nights, low clouds and patchy fog
rolls in off of the Gulf, and then hangs out over the region
into morning. Once the sun is up, the fog burns off and we are
backto VFR conditions until...around 03z/Wed the MVFR CIGs roll
back into the region and stay overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected today
through Tuesday.Moderate onshore flow will persist through the end
of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons across the southern bays and nearshore waters.
Hazy conditions will linger at times through the week as fires
continue to burn to our south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  78  93  80 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          93  76  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           102  78 104  79 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             97  76  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          89  78  89  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          101  78 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        95  78  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       90  81  90  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...JSL/86