Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 161158
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
558 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/

Patchy mvfr cigs are stacked along and just east of I-35, but only
Stinson is being impacted. There could be some brief lowerings at
SAT/AUS, but the winds off the deck are mostly west and northwest
which should help bring drier low level air southeast. Model
forecasts continue to vary on subtle features such as wind direction,
and the general wind forecast should be for all winds to remain at
or below 12 knots through today. The direction could impact the
layers of saturation, but will stay conservative with mostly vfr
skies. Most of the model data shows agreement on overrunning above
the boundary layer with the pattern to strengthen this evening with
the arrival of a shallow front. Rain chances should gradaully
increase with time, especially post frontal.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
An upper level trough has lifted north to the Central Plains leaving
behind a weak cold front between the I-35 corridor and the Coastal
Plains and a larger upper level trough over the southwestern states
to off the Baja California coast. Expect showers from along the I-35
corridor to the Coastal Plains today and tonight due residual moist
airmass with only isolated thunderstorms due to weak instability and
forcing. Cannot rule out a strong storm or two due to some shear. On
Tuesday, an upper level shortwave lifts out of the upper level
trough and moves across northwestern Mexico to the Trans Pecos while
the cold front moves southeast of our area. Isentropic lift develops
leading to showers spreading across our area. Elevated instability
is shown on the forecast soundings and isolated thunderstorms are
possible. Well above normal temperatures today will turn slightly
below normal on Tuesday due to the rain.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
As the shortwave continues north across Western Texas, isentropic
lift maintains the showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday Night
into Wednesday. The rains will wane in the afternoon and evening as
the lift weakens. The main upper level trough moves across Texas on
Thursday. Lift strengthens Wednesday Night leading to showers and
isolated thunderstorms redeveloping and then showers and isolated
thunderstorms end from west to east on Thursday as subsidence takes
hold in the wake of the exiting trough. Another upper level trough
moves across Texas on Friday, however only sprinkles are possible as
the airmass dries. A stronger upper level trough moves across Texas
next weekend. It will provide strong enough lift to overcome the
drier airmass to allow for isolated showers. Near normal temperatures
on Wednesday warm to well above normal Thursday through Saturday on
west-southwesterly flow off the Mexican plateau, then return closer
to normal for next Sunday as northerly flow brings cooler air from
the northern plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              52  57  49  62  52 /  20  60  70  60  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  52  57  49  62  51 /  30  60  70  60  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     54  58  50  63  52 /  30  60  70  60  20
Burnet Muni Airport            47  54  45  59  48 /  10  60  70  40  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           52  60  49  65  49 /  10  50  50  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        48  55  46  60  49 /  20  60  70  50  20
Hondo Muni Airport             55  60  50  64  51 /  10  60  70  40  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        53  58  50  62  52 /  30  60  70  60  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   56  60  53  65  55 /  60  60  70  60  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       54  59  51  63  53 /  20  60  70  50  20
Stinson Muni Airport           56  60  52  65  53 /  20  60  70  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04


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