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000
FXUS64 KEWX 230449 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW END MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING 10-11Z ALONG I-35...WITH CIGS DELAYED UNTIL 12Z FOR
KDRT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH
VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE. DAYTIME HEATING
AND MIXING WILL SERVE TO SCATTER MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING. WE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SCT-BKN DECK (VFR WITH BASES 4K-
6K AGL) OF CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR
KDRT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVING EAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW CONVECTION... WE HAVE
ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KDRT BETWEEN 23/22-24/02.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO OUR AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER PUSHES EAST. FRONT RETREATS
TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE LIFT AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THOSE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ON THE WESTERN TEXAS DRYLINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW TAKES A FEW OF THESE INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CAPE AND LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH
THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SOME REMNANT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY
DRAGGING A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT TO NEAR I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP THE AIRMASS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED POPS. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE/FRONT RETREATS NORTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STEERING FLOW
WILL TAKE THEM EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO A LOW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE SPARSE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITIES. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  86  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  86  63  86  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  87  64  88  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  84  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  91  67  96  68 /   0  20  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  84  65  85  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  90  64  92  68 /   0  -   20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  64  87  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  65  84  65 /   0  -   20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33