Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 290835
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  67  88  65  82 /  70  60  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  67  87  64  82 /  60  60  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  67  88  65  82 /  60  60  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  63  87  61  79 /  60  40  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  91  66  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  65  87  62  80 /  70  50  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  64  91  65  85 /  50  40  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  67  87  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  84  68  83 /  60  70  60  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  68  88  66  83 /  60  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  70  89  67  85 /  50  50  30  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



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