Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 010003
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WEAK WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDED THE MENTION OF THE FOG TO THE
FORECAST. ALSO RAN AN HOURLY GRID UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN PLACE.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VERY POOR AVIATION OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENTIRE
REGION IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT
SITTING AT LOW END MVFR. ON TOP OF THAT MVFR BR OR WORSE IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 12
HOURS. EXPECTING LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KAUS AND TOWARDS MORNING FOR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT. SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT IT LIKELY WONT
BE IN THE NEXT 30+ HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EAST WEST ORIENTED
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ISENTROPIC FLOW
FROM THE SOUTH WAS MOVING OVER A COLD SURFACE LAYER WITH WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE. MOIST AIR WAS TRAPPED BELOW AN 800MB-700MB INVERSION.
DURING THIS PERIOD THE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SWING DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW OVER TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE MOVE IN AND WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              35  54  45  57  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  37  55  44  58  54 /  40  30  30  30  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     38  58  48  61  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            32  52  41  53  53 /  40  30  40  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  64  50  66  55 /  20  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        34  53  42  55  54 /  50  30  30  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  61  50  64  53 /  20  30  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  56  47  59  54 /  30  30  30  30  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   45  60  51  62  61 /  30  40  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       38  60  50  62  56 /  20  30  30  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  61  51  63  56 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





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