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000
FXUS64 KEWX 290457
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1057 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO AND THIS WILL LEAD TO FOG FORMATION BY AROUND 09Z AND VIS
WILL DROP TO IFR. CIGS MAY FORM AT LIFR HEIGHT EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY. CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY. DRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO GOING FORECAST BUT DID EXPAND
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG FARTHER WEST AND NORTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE SET TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

DISCUSSION...MANY SITES EITHER REACHED OR CAME WITHIN 1-2F
DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE WARM
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE. THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO HELP MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INFILTRATE THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HELP FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP. FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT NW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SLIGHTLY UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE
QUARTER MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS BUT OVERALL
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE. AS FOG SLOWLY
MIXES OUT IT COULD BE THICK ENOUGH FOR LOW CLOUD CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY NOON.

DUE TO EARLY CLOUDS AND A WEAK FRONT COMING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT SHOULD STILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS ARE
HELPING TO DRIVE UP TEMPERATURES AND WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE EFFECT FOR THURSDAY WILL BE A
WIND SHIFT...WITH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A STOUT LOW
PRESSURE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SEND A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND INCREASE WEST TO EAST STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD FROM SUNRISE SATURDAY TO SUNRISE SUNDAY. MODEL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES SO
SOME POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY WILL SEE THE MOST
RAIN...BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH...WHILE AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 CAN EXPECT A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE UP TO 2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ON
SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASH OUT...IT WILL
FOR SURE BE A WET ONE. THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOME ACROSS THE AREA AS
PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ARE STILL
CATEGORIZED IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.

LOOKING AT THE AMOUNT OF LIFT THAT WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN 850 MB LLJ PASSES OVER AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD FURTHER AID IN
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARM UP BY MIDWEEK.

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE LARGE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST FROM THE BAJA TOWARDS TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS TAKE IT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT THEN DIVERGE AS THE
GFS TAKES THE LOW NORTHEAST RIGHT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BROWNSVILLE. THE GFS SOLUTION IS A
VERY WET ONE ADDING ABOUT ANOTHER INCH OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
GFS FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST CONSISTENT
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE RUNS OF BOTH MODELS FROM YESTERDAY.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              53  74  45  59  46 /   0  -   10  10  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  48  73  45  58  44 /   0  -   10  10  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     49  74  46  59  46 /   0  -   10  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            51  71  41  55  42 /   0  -   10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  75  51  59  48 /   0  -   10  20  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        53  72  43  57  44 /   0  -   10  10  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  75  47  60  47 /   0  -   10  10  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        50  74  45  58  45 /   0  -   10  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  73  47  59  47 /   0  -   10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       50  74  47  59  47 /   0  -   10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  74  48  60  47 /   0  -   10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...FOGARTY
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...VAN PELT