Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
STILL SEEING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTWARD MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ALL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AS STABILIZATION
BEGINS TO OCCUR WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. HAVE REORIENTED
THE POP GRID FOR TONIGHT TO SHOW THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY UNTIL 02Z
OR 9 PM...THEN KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MOSTLY QUIET. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AND REINTRODUCED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 9Z /4AM/ FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...00Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND
06Z AT SAT AND 09Z AT AUS...EXPANDING TOWARDS DRT AFTER 12Z. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY SEE IFR CEILINGS. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUR
AFTER 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. SE WINDS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 10-15 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 18-22 KTS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS AT SAT AS WELL AS
DEVELOPING WEST TOWARD DRT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS AT SAT/AUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WERE MAINLY EAST OF OUR CWA WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER TEXAS FROM THE
WEST. DEEP LAYER MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  93  74  94  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  91  72  93  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  91  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  95  76  96  76 /   0  -   -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  91  73  93  74 /  10  20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  92  74 /  20  30  10  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  75  93  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  94  74  95  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY



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