Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 302018
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT MUCH MORE TODAY. THIS HAS KEPT THE
HEAT INDICES IN CHECK WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 100 EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN THE LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST COLD FRONT EXPECTED TOMORROW. AS OF 2 PM...THE
FRONT WAS STILL LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH AT THIS HOUR. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FIRING OFF
STORMS IN WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE ONLY
EFFECT THESE MAY HAVE IN OUR CWA IS LIGHT RAIN AS THE STORMS
WEAKEN AND DIE AS THEY NEAR THE AREA. WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS
WITH 10 POPS AFTER 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AROUND 18Z TOMORROW. IT WILL ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING AND WE
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. ALL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WE WILL NOT BE IN A FAVORABLE REGION
FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE THE
SURFACE FOCUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA. 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAK...WHICH WILL NOT HELP MUCH WITH THE
PRODUCTION OF RAINFALL. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FROPA WITH SOME LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LIFT AT
850 MB. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND WILL CARRY 30/40 POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT IS LACKING...MOISTURE WILL CERTAINLY
NOT BE. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 2.3 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NEARLY 2 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FOR FRIDAY...NORTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRYING ALOFT AND WITH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE...THE
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL
LINGER POPS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THE POPS ARE MAINLY FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...AS WE SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE DRYING ATMOSPHERE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...PW VALUES WILL BE BELOW 2
INCHES FOR ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP THE
BEST POPS IN THIS AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL POPS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
BE QUITE NICE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT NEAR 90 FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ELSEWHERE.

EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. EXPECTING A BIT MORE THAN ISOLATED ACTIVITY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AS A WEAK TROUGH SITS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD INCREASE
THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY. THIS WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP HIGHS FROM WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  94  74  95  73 /  10  30  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  94  72  93  70 /  10  30  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  96  73  93  71 /  -   20  40  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  91  72  91  71 /  10  30  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  79  95  77 /  10  20  40  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  72  92  71 /  10  30  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  97  74  94  73 /  -   20  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  95  73  92  71 /  -   30  40  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  94  76  91  73 /  -   20  40  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  76  93  74 /  -   20  40  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  97  75  94  74 /  -   20  40  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






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