Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 050905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND IT IS SPREADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST(COASTAL PLAINS)TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST(SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU). DEWPOINTS ARE AVERAGING FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THERE ARE FEW SITES ALREADY REPORTING PATCHY FOG
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR
9 AM. MOST OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
SOLUTION...CANT BE RULE OUT SINCE THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT WILL BE ENOUGH OF A LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN/PRECIP(IN SPITE OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 6KFT). OVERALL...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
AROUND NOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER
MOST AREAS AND UP TO 103 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE...HEAT INDICES COULD RANGE
FROM 105 TO 107 ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 AND 57 FOR FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH AND UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH OVER FEW LOCATIONS.

LOW CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90 MOST PLACES AND NEAR 101 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS RELATIVELY DRY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS/ISO
STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS THE ECM SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY(SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE). THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES HANDLING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THAT PERIOD. WILL KEEP ADJUSTING THE WEATHER
PACKAGES ACCORDINGLY AS THE ECM AND GFS COME TO A BETTER SOLUTION
IN FUTURE RUNS. OVERALL PATTERN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK LOOKS WET
WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              97  76  98  76  98 /  10  -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  95  74  97  74  96 /  10  -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     97  75  98  74  98 /  20  -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            95  74  97  75  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  77 100  77 100 /  -   -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  76  96 /  10  -   -    0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  74  98  74  98 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  75  97  75  97 /  20  -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   96  76  96  76  96 /  20  -   10  -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       96  76  98  76  97 /  20  -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           97  76  99  75  98 /  20  -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17


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