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000
FXUS64 KEWX 181142 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FOG AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER
15Z BACK TO MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO END. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-11Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT...CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS 5F OR SO WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPUTTERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BITS AND PIECES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO SHOTGUN 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REFOCUS 20 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT...
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MANY WILL ONLY RECEIVE 1/10
INCH OR LESS. ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE
ONE INCH FROM ISOLATED...STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FAR WEST (MEXICAN MOUNTAINS) OR
FAR EAST (STREAMER SHOWERS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  57  80  60  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  54  80  57  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     78  57  81  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  56  78  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  62  80  64  81 /  10  20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  56  79  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  59  82  62  81 /  10  -   20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  56  80  58  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  57  79  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  58  82  61  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  59  82  61  81 /  10  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26