Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 260100
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
800 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS AROUND 07-10KT AFTER 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER COOLER
SUNDAY...BUT STILL WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SENDING
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS. THE WEAK FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY ENTER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING IS
LACKING...AND THEREFORE WILL ONLY KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST...SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND CMC
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY SHARPER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
RIDGE INTO CENTRAL CANADA...RESULTING IN A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES...AND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WITH THE TROUGH. HAVE
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  88  63  87  66 /   0   0  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  87  57  87  62 /   0   0  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  88  60  88  65 /   0   0  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  87  61  84  64 /   0   0  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  87  61  86  64 /   0   0  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        61  87  61  86  65 /   0   0  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  87  56  86  61 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  89  59  87  64 /   0   0  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  86  63  86  65 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       62  86  63  86  67 /   0   0  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  87  62  87  66 /   0   0  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





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