Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 032326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK SEEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
WILL DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK MORNING
SOUTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND DAWN BUT
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS HEATING BEGINS BY MID MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IS FILTERING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
MOST OF THE SUBTROPICS EXTENDING FROM JUST WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TO THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS
LARGE DRY SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS ARE MOIST TROPICAL EASTERLIES WITH
AN INTENSIFYING PACIFIC HURRICANE BLANCA SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO AND
AN ACTIVE WESTERLY STORM TRACK IN THE MIDLATITUDES AS FAR SOUTH AS
KANSAS. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT THE TRANSITION TO A DRY SUMMERLIKE
WEATHER PATTERN IS COMPLETE...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS
ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT AFTERNOON CU FROM DEVELOPING FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND WINDS OUT OF THE S-SE AROUND 10 MPH. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FILTER BACK INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG H500 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THEN. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE
ON FRIDAY IN THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS AS THE NAM TRIES
TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND...BLOCKING ANY
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM BLANCA AND KEEPING IT OUT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE WEST BY
TUESDAY...ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

AS THE RIDGE SLIDES WEST ON TUESDAY...THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OUT
WEST WILL SPLIT INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANY CONVECTION
MAY SLIDE INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  90  69  91  70 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  89  67  90  68 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  90  68  91  69 /   0   0   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  89  67  89  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  92  71  92  72 /   0  -    0  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  89  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  90  69  90  69 /   0   0   0  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  89  68  89  69 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  89  69  90  70 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  90  71  90  71 /   0   0   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  90  71  90  71 /   0   0   0  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30


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