Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 221155 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...SO WE HAVE INCLUDED BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING AT KDRT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY.
FOR NOW... WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
KDRT. ELSEWHERE... MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 10KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE FAR WEST SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
THE LIGHT ECHOES ARE COMING FROM MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SO AM
NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE AUTOMATED STATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT HIT THE GROUND...BUT
A FEW LOCATIONS OUT WEST WILL IN FACT SEE SOME WET ROADS DURING
THE PREDAWN-EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS LIGHT RAIN IS THE RESULT OF
DEEPER MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE RIO GRANDE THE
LAST FEW DAYS AND A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER
ROCKIES DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LIFT
WILL ONLY CAUSE LOW POP OUT WEST TODAY AND THAT WILL PUSH A BIT
FARTHER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIKE WE HAVE
SEE THE PAST FEW DAYS THE CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE MAINLY OVER THE
WEST WHILE EASTERN AREAS CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A BIT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE TROF
PASSING OVERHEAD. WILL BE STICKING FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS
TODAY...TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE LOW POP WILL END
ACROSS ALL THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF MOVES EAST BRINGING IN
NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO MOVE OVER TEXAS AND
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN SOME SPOTS. NOT CALLING FOR ANY RECORD HIGHS AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS
BEFORE THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT...LEE SIDE TROFFING DEVELOPS...AND WE
GET A STRONGER SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL IN TURN LIKELY BRING BACK
SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS STARTING MAYBE AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING
BUT MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN WANTING TO TRY TO
PUSH DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. THE LATEST
GFS HAS BACK OFF A BIT ON GETTING A FRONT THROUGH HERE...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN BRINGS IT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT POP DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              82  62  83  62  86 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  82  56  86 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  85  60  88 /  -   -   10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  59  84 /  -   10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  65  83  62  86 /  20  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  59  81  59  85 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  58  85  56  88 /  -   10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  59  84  58  87 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  83  58  86 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  63  86  63  88 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  62  86  61  88 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09









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