Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 211550
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS. THIS OVERRUNNING WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IN A FEW SPOTS BUT
NOT HEAVY ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MODELS
SHOW THE OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL DAY WHILE THINNER MOISTURE OUT WEST WILL MIX OUT BY
THE AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. LATEST HRRR MODELS
SHOWS THIS AS WELL. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS BUT
OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST TREND IS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/
MVFR PREVAILS ACROSS CENTRAL TAF SITES WITH STRATUS OVC015 CIGS ON
AVERAGE WITH LOWER IFR CIGS AT KDRT NEAR 600FT AS OF 12Z. EXPECT
KDRT TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFT TO VFR. CENTRAL SITES WILL
BE TRICKY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FEEL STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE IN WEST TEXAS
AND WITH WEAK S/SW FLOW WILL HELP MORE CLEARING TOWARDS KSAT/KSSF
THAN YESTERDAY BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. FEEL KAUS HAS LEAST CHANCE OF
GOING VFR WITH HIGH END MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CENTRAL
SITES TO FALL BACK TO LOW MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT. HAVE
FOLLOWED MORE OF NAM/RAP CONSISTENCY FOR KDRT WITH MVFR POSSIBLY
RETURNING OVERNIGHT AS WELL. MUCH QUICKER CLEARING EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH VFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES BY NOON.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S/SW AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME SPOTS AND WILL MAINTAIN MENTION
THROUGH MID MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES GETS AN ENHANCEMENT FROM A COUPLE SHORT-WAVES
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINTAINS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS IN
THE PLAINS LEADING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WARMEST
OF THE NEXT WEEK AS CLOUDS ERODE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE FORCES A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER ON
TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT MENTIONED AS THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE DRYING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATES BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW LYING SPOTS
IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WILL DROP TO FREEZING
WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS MORNINGS AS WINDS DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
WITH SOUTHERLY LOWER FLOW WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE. BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
EVEN COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE DAYS BEFORE THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              60  51  71  50  58 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  48  71  49  59 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     61  50  73  51  60 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  47  72  46  55 /  -   -   -   10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  45  75  49  60 /  -   -    0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  49  71  48  56 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  48  74  47  61 /  -   -    0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  49  71  50  59 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  51  73  54  58 /  -   10  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       61  51  73  50  61 /  -   -    0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  50  74  50  61 /  -   -    0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




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