Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 201744 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. MORNING SOUNDINGS AT
KCRP/KDRT INDICATE INVERSIONS SO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO HANG STRONG
INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
10Z-12Z THEN LIFT BACK TO MVFR/VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN N/NE NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY...SE NEAR 10 KNOTS AT KDRT. WILL
SEE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
LOW END MVFR CIGS ONGOING THIS MORNING FOR KSAT/KAUS/KSSF WITH
KDRT BOUNCING BETWEEN LOW MVFR AND VFR AS BKN010 TO SCT010 KEEP
BEING OBSERVED. WILL GO ON PESSIMISTIC SIDE FOR KDRT THROUGH
17-20Z BEFORE EVENTUAL BREAK OUT TO VFR OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
CENTRAL SITES HOWEVER, FEEL MVFR WILL RULE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PER RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS AND HRRR OUTPUT. TOP OF STRATUS CLOUD DECK
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 3.5-4 KFT, RESULTING IN A 1-1.5 KFT THICK
STRATUS CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT, IFR IS LIKELY FOR ALL SITES WITH
ANOTHER SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR ON SUNDAY AFTN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE N/NNE AT 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES TRAVERSE THE TROUGH TO
GENERATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE DEPTH ONLY SUFFICIENT FOR
MAINTENANCE OF STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME AND ABOVE AVERAGE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH AROUND 9 AM THIS
MORNING.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING SKIES TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS AND HAVE INTRODUCED
MENTION. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS FORCING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE DEPTH
WILL BE MINIMAL. COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
WARMER THURSDAY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  44  60  48  70 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  42  59  46  70 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  45  61  48  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  40  58  46  69 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  45  62  46  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  40  58  47  69 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  45  62  46  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  43  61  46  70 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  45  61  48  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       57  45  61  49  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  46  62  49  72 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





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