Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 241722
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1122 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Flying conditions will be VFR at all area airports through the
period. Winds will be strong and gusty from the northwest this
afternoon. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to around
25 kts. They will decrease late this afternoon or early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
A dry-line/surface trough entered the Edwards Plateau early this
morning. This feature will continue to push to the southeast
throughout the day. Patchy fog is expected along and east of the
Interstate 35 corridor before the dry-line reaches the coastal
plains. A weak cold front is also forecast to push across the area
later today and brings a second surge of dry and cooler airmass over
the region. With this scenario in place, expect lower humidity values
and breezy northwest to north winds across much of the
area...resulting in near critical to critical fire weather
conditions. See the fire weather section for more details.

Otherwise, dry conditions are expected today with high temperatures
in the upper 70s to mid 80s. In the wake of the cold front, a cooler
airmass will spread across the region with overnight lows dropping
to the upper 30s across the Hill Country and 40s elsewhere and
daytime highs only in the 60s much areas on Saturday.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Southerly winds and increased low level moisture returns Saturday
night into Sunday as a short-wave disturbance moves across the area.
This will bring slight chances for rain across two-thirds of the area
with the exception of the Edwards Plateau during the day on Sunday.
This activity then shift to the Hill Country and areas along and
east of highway 281 in the evening. A dry-line/short-wave axis is
forecast to push across the area on Monday, keeping rain chances
limited to areas along and east of Highway 183. This feature is
forecast to push back to the northwest on Tuesday and light rain-
showers could develop over the warmer and moister sector mainly
during the afternoon period. A dry cold front is expected to push
across the area Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. A
cooler airmass will spread across the area in the wake of the cold
front and remains in place through the rest of the extended forecast
period with temperatures near or just below the climate normals.

FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect across the Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande Plains areas from 11 am through 5 pm this afternoon due to
low relative humidity and breezy northwest to north winds.

In the wake of the dry-line/surface trough axis, winds will pick up
mid-morning 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Relative humidities will
drop to the teens and lower 20s percent late this morning into the
afternoon hours. With this condition, any fire that does develop
will spread quickly over areas under the Red Flag Warning. Also,
areas under the warning have received limited precipitation the past
7 days.

Near critical fire weather conditions exist east of the Red Flag
Warning area as winds are expected to bit a bit lighter. Also, these
locations have received moderate rainfall amounts within the past 5
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  43  62  44  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  41  63  42  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  42  64  43  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  38  58  42  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           83  44  71  50  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  40  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             86  41  68  45  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  43  64  43  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  44  64  44  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  45  66  46  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport           85  45  67  46  74 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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