Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 011131
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
631 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. NELY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFT TO SELY WITH 5 TO 10 KTS MOST AREAS LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
INTO EDWARDS PLATEAU INCLUDING KDRT. VFR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO MVFR
CIGS IN STRATUS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A KVCT TO KHYI TO KAQO LINE
DURING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FURTHER EAST...WILL GO WITH ONLY A
TEMPO MID MORNING AT KAUS. BY LATE MORNING...CIGS RISE TO LOW END
VFR ALL AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WILL CAUSE DRY NORTHWEST
WINDS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS WE FALL BACK AN HOUR
SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY WHILE THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
SUNDAY SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL DUE TO BOTH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM VANCE AND THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM.

IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE CONCERNING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OF ALL OF THE MID-RANGE FORECAST MODELS THE
GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GFS PW VALUES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH A TROUGH OVER ARIZONA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...A CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...FINALLY EJECTING OUT OVER NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF IS ALSO SLOWER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS.

ANOTHER MID TO LONG RANGE MODEL...THE DGEX SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS. IT HAS THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WHILE KEEP
THE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY.

WITH SO MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS HAVE GONE WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR NOW BLENDING THE MODELS TOGETHER...BUT
LEANING HEAVIER ON THE GFS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AT THIS POINT
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM
VANCE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH ARE NOT TIMED
TOGETHER...OR WE GET DRY SLOTTED FROM THE LOW...BOTH DECREASING
THE CHANCE AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. DESPITE THIS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT...THE TROUGH...AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURE WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  47  72  61  77 /   0   0  -   10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  42  73  58  77 /   0   0  -   10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  47  74  61  79 /   0   0  -   10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  47  69  61  74 /   0   0  -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  57  74  64  79 /  -   -   10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  44  70  59  76 /   0   0  -   10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  47  72  61  77 /  -   -   10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  45  74  60  78 /   0   0  -   10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  43  74  61  79 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  52  74  65  79 /   0   0  -   10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  51  76  64  80 /   0   0  -   10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12





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