Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 041143
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
WE START WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM
TO LOWER TO IFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. VFR WILL RETURN BY AROUND NOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSRA IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING
A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO ALLOW FOR A
SEABREEZE. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND SEABREEZE WILL LIFT THE MOISTURE
TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND A GUSTY DOWNDRAFT
WIND. HAVE LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS AS
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THEM. HOWEVER...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO
ALONG I-35 AS SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE IS THERE. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO BUILDS A LITTLE TO THE EAST DRYING THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY
FROM ABOVE. THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE PWS NEAR 1.7 INCHES REMAIN.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BACK INTO MEXICO
BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER WESTERN
TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS NOTED IN THE ECMWF...GEM AND
NAM BRINGING SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR WESTERN AREAS WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH NORTH WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. HAVE FAVORED
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO LOWER PECOS VALLEY. EARLIER RUNS OF
SOME MODELS SHOWED QPF FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE CAPS THE
AIRMASS FURTHER EAST. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH
BY WEDNESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGES OVER MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO
BEGIN A PROCESS OF BUILDING OVER TEXAS WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRYING AIRMASS WILL PREVENT RAIN. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
SOIL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP 100S OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  76  92  76  93 /  10  -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  75  91  75  93 /  10  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  75  92  74  92 /  10  -   10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  74  90  74  92 /  10  -   10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  75  93  77  96 /  10  -   10   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  75  91  76  92 /  10  -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  74  92  74  93 /  10  -   10   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  75  91  75  92 /  10  -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  76  92  77  92 /  20  -   20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  75  91  76  93 /  10  -   10   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  76  92  75  93 /  10  -   10   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04


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