Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 041140
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
MVFR CIGS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AT KSAT/KSSF THIS
MORNING BUT WILL SCATTER OUT QUICKLY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN FOR THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TONIGHT. SATELLITE OBS AND MODELS SHOW THAT PWATS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES THIS EVENING...UP FROM 1-1.2 INCHES JUST 12
HOURS AGO. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAN
RECENT EVENINGS...ALBEIT WEAK...HAS LED TO PATCHY BROKEN AND
OVERCAST SKIES ALONG THE ESCARPMENT THAT MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARDS SUNRISE. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID-
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 90S
ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 100S IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES APPROACHING BUT
REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE VALUES WILL BE IN THE 107 TO 109 RANGE...AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS...WHERE VALUES WILL BE IN THE 105 TO 107 RANGE.
EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO GENERALLY BE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS LIKELY KEEPING MOST SPOTS
BELOW 100 DEGREES EXCEPT OUT IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST
FROM CONVECTION THIS PAST EVENING IS DISSIPATING NEAR SAN
ANGELO...BUT ANY STORMS THAT FIRE OFF OF IT TOMORROW SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. AFTER TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES ARE
NOT REALLY EXPECTED ANYWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN REASSERT ITSELF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER OKLAHOMA SLIDES TO THE EAST. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BROADEN AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE MORNING LOW CLOUDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONE OF THE
HOTTEST DAYS WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER WITH MOST OF THE REGION
REACHING THE CENTURY MARK BY THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR SPOTS IN THE
HILL COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN
ISOLATED SPOTS AS WE CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE
LEVELS GRADUALLY DECREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  77  99  77 100 /   0   0  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  98  75 100 /  -    0  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  76  99  76 100 /  -    0  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  75  99  76 100 /   0   0  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 101  79 102 /  -   -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  77  99  77 100 /   0   0  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  75  98  75 100 /   0   0  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  76  99  76  99 /  -    0  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  77  99  77  99 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  78  99  77 100 /  -    0  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77  99  76 100 /  -    0  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH



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