Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 100449
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1049 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS TRENDING TO A
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

UPDATE... /UPDATE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MINS EAST OF AUSTIN/

EARLY EVENING ANALYSIS OF RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT
MINS NEEDED A DOWNWARD TWEAK IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES WHERE LIGHT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A DRY AIRMASS. SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
A WARNING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS. THE RETURN OF
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
BY THURSDAY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S MOST AREAS TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. BY THE EVENING HOURS...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
ACCORDING TO GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS KEEP
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND MAINTAIN
THE BOUNDARY THERE FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. SHOWED A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND BRING THE A SLIGHTLY WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATING THE ENTIRE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES OUT WEST VERSUS SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
CORRIDOR AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE
UPPER MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              40  76  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  34  75  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     37  76  46  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  75  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           39  79  45  82  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        37  74  48  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             36  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        37  75  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   37  73  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       39  77  48  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           39  77  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33


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