Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 040940
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST
FLOW TONIGHT.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH WILL SUPPORT
THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FA.  AS SUBSIDENCE STARTS
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FA, LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. POPS WILL DECREASE FROM LIKELY IN THE SOUTH TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM A FEW
TENTHS UP TO AN INCH.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE TODAY, SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IN ADDITION, H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH
DECREASES BEHIND THE TROUGH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THESE
PERIODS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON AS
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. A WARMING TREND WILL START THURSDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 40S. MID 50S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. MIN
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE TEENS. MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A WEAK ZONAL FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS THE JET PULLS NORTH INTO
CANADA. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN THE MODEL TENDENCY
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY...AND THEY MAY APPROACH THE 70S BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH FROM THE 00Z TAFS. MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DATA. FOR KGLD...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL 14Z. BEGINNING AT 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORNING...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WHEN A MORE INTENSE BAND OF SNOW MOVES ACROSS...
OCCASIONAL IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THE SNOW WILL
END BY 12Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z. AT THAT
TIME...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



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