Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 272323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
523 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

A period of active weather has begun. Models consistent from
yesterday and supported by satellite and upper air analysis.
Rather strong system continues to move toward the area. A rather
strong pv anomaly is associated with this system. A surface
boundary was also located just west of the area. Negative theta-e
lapse rates are in place.

As a result showers have been increasing in coverage to our west
and will continue to increase in coverage as it moves across the
area during the night. Some strong thunderstorms will be possible
this evening. Question becomes later tonight into tomorrow morning
how how far north does that precipitation move and how much
continues to affect the area. Am thinking that with the rainfall
that occurs during the night and cloud cover should keep mins from
dropping too much.

Believe brunt of the precipitation will stay to the north of my
area tomorrow morning. Strong system digging into the Great Basin
will push that initial system north of the area. Lingering lift
and favorable theta-e lapse rates will remain over the north
through the morning and that is where the precipitation should
stay. During the afternoon a rather strong mid level baroclinic
zone/shortwave trough will begin to rotate through the area
through the afternoon. So precipitation move further south in the
afternoon. Precipitation and cloud cover will keep temperatures
from being able to warm too much.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Friday night through Sunday night:

A closed H5 low will influence the region over the weekend with
snow and rain likely. Strong cold air advection will prevail
beginning late Friday night and will persist into Saturday. There
is currently good agreement between the global models; however,
there is still some temporal uncertainty among the mesoscale and
convective guidance. The speed of this system will determine how
much snow is received with some areas perhaps accumulating 5 or
more inches of wet, heavy snow. As of this afternoon, the guidance
is suggesting that the heaviest snowfall amounts will remain in
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in eastern Colorado. SREF plumes
range from as little as 2 inches across our eastern Colorado
counties with as much 6 to 8 inches possible as this will likely
fall within a convective band, leading to locally high snowfall
rates. East of the Colorado/Kansas line, we expect 2 to 4 inches
of snow in the counties immediately to the east with diminishing
amounts further east. Once more; however, if the convective band
moves further east, we will see much higher amounts locally. In
either case, heavy and wet snow will be the predominant
precipitation type and will combine with gusty winds. If snow is
able to accumulate on trees, fallen limbs could cause power
outages. Young cattle will need to be sheltered. In addition,
below freezing temperatures will prevail each night Friday through
Sunday, thus sensitive vegetation should be protected when

Sunday through Thursday:
Temperatures will rebound on Sunday and into next week. Highs on
Sunday will reach the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Warmer
temperatures are expected each day through Thursday with shower
and thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

At KGLD...line of thunderstorms moving out of Colorado will impact
the terminal around 00z this evening with brief gusty winds up to
50kts and reduced visibility in rain/blowing dust. After the
initial line, scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
evening, ending around 06z. Ceilings should gradually improve
after midnight to MVFR/VFR with westerly low level winds. On
Friday...northwest surface winds will increase on the backside of
the surface low with breezy/gusty winds through the afternoon.

At KMCK...showers/perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will impact the
terminal by mid evening and continue through the overnight hours.
Low ceilings will result in IFR/VLIFR conditions. Ceilings will be
slow to improve on Tuesday and IFR may persist through the day.


KS...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ013-027-041.

CO...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for COZ091-092.



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