Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM


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