Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 252043
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
243 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Initial concern will be brief chance of precipitation this
evening with remaining concern temperatures. Currently a shortwave
trough and associated surface feature are moving through the area.
Late this afternoon/early this evening the surface and shortwave
trough are near to just east of the forecast area. Upper jet is
nosing in from the west. Left front quadrant will be near to just
south of the area early this evening.
Little to no moisture is available below 700 mb with a lot of
moisture above 700 mb. Satellite showing that this air mass should
dry out quickly behind shortwave trough with less moisture around
when the jet gets here. Models consistent in keeping the
precipitation east and south of the area which matches the lift
mentioned in the above reasoning. Will continue to monitor trends
but plan on having a dry forecast tonight.
Will have a period of lighter winds before winds increase a little
bit later tonight. Trend has been for guidance to be a little warm,
especially the blend. So adjusted the mins down a little. Will have
plenty of sun tomorrow. However wind field becomes north to light
and variable as some cold air advection takes place. Blend maxes
have been doing well, and made no adjustments to what I was given.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016
An upper level ridge remains the dominant feature in the long term,
leading to a dry forecast for the entire period. Temperatures are
generally above normal through at least the weekend, with cooler
air anticipated to move in by Tuesday.
Wednesday night through Friday night: Dry weather persists across
the region. The upper ridge rebuilds and continues to progress
towards the Plains through Thursday. A weak shortwave moves from the
Pacific coast towards the northern Plains on Friday, flattening the
ridge and sending a cold front south. Still do not expect any
precipitation with this front due to the dry air mass in place. Will
keep an eye on fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, but at
this time, it appears the drier air and stronger winds will not be
colocated. Additionally, dry air does make it further into our
forecast area from Colorado on Friday, so will continue to monitor
this day as well.
Saturday through Tuesday: The cold front traverses the High Plains
late Friday/early Saturday as the northern Plains disturbance
continues north of the region. The ridge quickly redevelops behind
this system and persists over the area through Sunday. Another
shortwave advances from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains
on Monday, pushing the high pressure to the southeastern CONUS and
bringing cooler air to the region. The shortwave continues traveling
northeast into Canada on Tuesday, and southwesterly flow develops
aloft over the area. PoPs remain near zero during this timeframe.
Temperatures: Highs start out mainly in the low/mid 80s on Thursday
and Friday, followed by a gradual cooling trend into next week.
Saturday and Sunday have temperatures generally in the mid to upper
70s. Another cold front decreases temperatures early next week, with
highs in the 60s on Tuesday. The period begins with lows mostly in
the 40s to low 50s Wednesday through Friday nights. They then follow
the aforementioned trend, dropping into the mid 30s to mid 40s in
time for Monday night.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016
For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period.
Front/surface trough currently moving through the area. Through
the afternoon the winds will shift to the north at 10 to 15 knots.
After that the winds will become light and variable until late in
the evening into the overnight hours when the shift to the west
For Kmck...Stratus and fog are gradually shifting. For a couple
hours ifr conditions are expected and then quickly lift to mvfr
and finally vfr by 21z. Vfr conditions will then last through the
rest of the period. Light and variable winds will become west
around 02z and then northwest/north during the overnight and
morning hours. Wind speeds are expected to be 10 knots or less
once the winds begin shifting.