Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 270857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE KEYS WITH COOL NORTHERLIES AND CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING...AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER KEYS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RESPONSIBLE FOR A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING WITH ANOTHER HIGH SPREADING DOWN THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

FORECAST - THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOSE ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS EXCEPT FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...AS IT IS BRIDGED AND ABSORBED BY THE
CONSOLIDATING HIGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL LULL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE REINFORCING FRONT AND DAY TIME
WARMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO NUDGE PAST 70 DEGREES...WHILE DEW POINTS MIX DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY COOL
AIR DRAINAGE OFF THE PENINSULA...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH THE FRESH MASS OF COOL AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE KEYS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP DOWNWARDS...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S EXPERIENCED IN THE UPPER KEYS.

WINDS WILL AGAIN LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. THE
COOL DOME OF AIR...MUCH COOLER NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
DAY TIME HIGHS BELOW 70 ON FRIDAY. ALSO...WINDS WILL BEGIN TIPPING
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH COMPLEX CONTINUES SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE WILL
BEGIN AS THE WIND TRAJECTORY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARITIME AND WARMER
IN NATURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS CAN BE EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TODAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LULL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER WATERS NEAR AND IN THE LEE OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWERED FOR SOME WATERS. WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT FURTHER LATER ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND BECOME CENTERED CLOSER
TO THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR OUR AREA
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTING THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 27/20Z AND
28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED UP TO 050 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 27...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1903...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS
RECORDED. AND IN 1949...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  58  69  65 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  70  55  69  64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

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