Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 282317
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
717 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS AND ISLANDS REMAINED QUIET FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVED WEST ACROSS KEY
WEST. AS OF 700 PM...IT DISSIPATED WITH NO ADDITIONAL AREAS BEING
DETECTED BY RADAR. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.FORECAST...SATURDAY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE LATEST GFS SOUNDING FORECAST SHOWS SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD TRIGGER CLOUD AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
CHANGED CONSIDERABLY AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF WEAKENING AS IT BARELY HANGS TOGETHER ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS ERIKA
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. THIS FORECAST IS TRYING TO
COMPROMISE TWO SCENARIOS BETWEEN ERIKA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL WAVE
OR INTENSIFYING INTO A TROPICAL STORM ONCE IT EXITS HISPANIOLA. FOR
NOW...THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF ERIKA IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AT THIS MOMENT...THE POSSIBILITIES OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS GOING UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING ARE
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERWARDS...THE WIND
AND WAVES FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA AS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
AND FORECASTS FROM THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 29/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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