Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 262021
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
321 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly sunny skies and light to gentle northeast to east
winds, temperatures are hovering around 80 degrees along the
Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are not detecting any
significant precipitation echoes in our county warning area.
Surface wise, An expansive region of high pressure is centered
along the Southeast United states with a ridge extending down the
Florida peninsula and the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic ocean. On our
coastal waters, winds are northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots
except near 10 knots on Florida Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
A zonal mid and upper level southern stream flow will transition
to a pronounced anticyclonic regime flow with 500 mb heights
rising from 585 to 590 by Wednesday, before the ridge begins to
flatten on Wednesday night. With this predominate subsident flow
aloft, moisture will be pretty much confined to below 850 mb
through the period. However, enough low level moisture flux within
a fresh to strong east flow will result in isolated 10 to 20
percent pops for the most part. High temperatures will average in
the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Given a progressive and fairly zonal flow aloft, persistence seems
to be the best solution with a cold front become diffuse as a very
formidable and large area of high pressure bridges over the
frontal boundary Friday. Beyond that, fresh to strong northeast to
east winds seem reasonable Friday night through at least Saturday
night, before slackening on Sunday. With the southern periphery of
the mid and upper level trough remaining north of our region, a
strong low level easterly trajectory should be enough to
generate isolated showers. Meanwhile, temperatures will be above
normal with daytime highs between 80 and 85 and overnight lows
between 70 and 75 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
With an increase in winds across our entire marine district
tonight, a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline will be
inserted for the Florida Straits, and near 15 knots elsewhere.
Thereafter, a Small Craft Advisory may be required for the
Florida Straits, an Exercise Caution Headline along Hawk Channel
and near 15 knots north for the first half of this week,


&&

.AVIATION...
Expect VFR through the next 24 hours at EYW & MTH. Moderate breezes
will become gentle this evening. Winds will gradually veer from
north-northeast to east and increase to 10-15 knots after 27/12z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1967, the daily record low temperature of 49 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  73  81  74  83 / -  10 10 10
Marathon  73  83  75  85 / -  10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......Rizzo

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