Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 211950
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY THANKS TO CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...AIR TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH 80F IN MANY
ISLAND COMMUNITIES THANKS TO THE WARM SOUTHEAST BREEZES. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE NEAR 70F...WITH A BORDERLINE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS RESIDING. RADAR SCANS INDICATED A FEW WEAK SHOWERS
EARLIER. HOWEVER...CURRENT SCANS ARE CLEAR OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES.

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORECAST FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THIS
PACKAGE IS A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT AROUND THE CHRISTMAS EVE TIME FRAME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING FRONTAL
TIMING...ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFTS AND SURGES...PRECIPITATION
STRUCTURES...CLOUDINESS...AND OF COURSE AIR TEMPERATURE. AT THIS
STAGE...BEST CHANCE FOR PRE-FRONTAL RAIN...THUNDER...AND SQUALLS
WOULD BE EITHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH A SHALLOW COLD
THERMAL ADVECTION EVENT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...TIMING LIKELY WILL
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A
POTENTIAL SURGE IN WIND SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS STILL ARE LIKELY
TO BOX AROUND THE COMPASS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT REGARDING BOTH WIND SPEED VALUES AND TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EITHER WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. TEMPORARILY BKN CLOUD
LAYERS WILL HAVE BASES RANGING FROM 025-030...080-100 AND 250.
CROSSWIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FROM MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR
10 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...DECEMBER 21ST...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1901...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  79  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  72  80  72  81 / 10 10 10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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