Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 060819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...BEFORE ACCELERATING TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PASS OVER NORTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY. NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL BACK
TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1912...1.82 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 6TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 104 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  73 60 67 56 / 80 90 20 -
MARATHON  75 59 67 54 / 80 90 20 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

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