Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 232120
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
420 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - Winds remain strong out of the west this afternoon as
a low pressure gyre works its way westward off the mid Atlantic
Coast. Isolated showers continue to race through the area in wake
of this mornings cold front as deep cyclonic flow still reigns and
there is no inhibtion for weak shower formation. Temperatures are
currently in the mid 70s with dew points down near 60.

These strong winds continue to pile up water on our gulf and bay
sides this afternoon and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect for the Upper Keys.

Forecast - The deep trough over the eastern United States will
swing northeastwards along the Atlantic coast over the next couple
of days leaving our latitude with weak ridging at all levels.
Winds are expected to trend slowly downwards and turn more
northwestwards overnight into Tuesday, then all but collapse
through the day Tuesday. As winds decrease, waters will gradually
drain. Will monitor the progress. Rain chances will fall to zero.

Through mid week a surface high will migrate eastwards across
Florida and winds will clock around east then southeast Wednesday.
As a result, expect temperatures to clime a few degrees above
normal, with dew points approaching 70.

Another moisture starved cold front is expected to push southwards
through Florida and the Keys on Friday. Winds will shift north to
northeast and pick up moderately with a slight chance of rain.
Temperatures will settle down to near or perhaps slightly below
normal and remain there through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous weather conditions will persist for our entire marine
district until early tonight, before winds abate overnight and
especially on Tuesday afternoon. However, treacherous seas on the
Florida Straits and the outer waters of Mainland Monroe and the
waters in around Dry tortugas will continue through most of
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters and a
Coastal Flooding Advisory is in effect for the back country side
of FLorida bay. Thereafter, winds will slacken with light to
gentle winds through at least Thursday before winds increase
again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect prevailing VFR with occasional light shower activity
impacting EYW & MTH through the afternoon. Fresh to strong breezes
with gusts near 30 knots out of the west will continue, with flow
gradually dropping and veering northwest overnight... returning to
near 10 knots towards the end of the terminal forecast period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1983, the daily record rainfall of 5.69 inches was recorded in
Key West. Rainfall records have been kept since 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  67  76  65  77 / -  0 0 0
Marathon  66  76  65  78 / -  0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for FLZ076.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA/KN
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......DR

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