Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251527
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN KEY LARGO TO THE MID 60S
IN KEY WEST. THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS
TEMPERED THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS
CELLS COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LOWER KEYS...ELSEWHERE...RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE. MAINLY
NORTH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA COASTAL WATERS.
THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION FROM MOLASSES REEF (NORTH AT 17 GUSTING
TO 21) INDICATES A REFUSAL TO GIVE UP THE DRAINAGE FLOW FROM THE
MAINLAND. THE RADAR IS FREE OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.

.FORECAST...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS WELL PORTRAYED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM PRESSES SOUTHEAST...THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL SAG INTO THE
TROPICS. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL COLLAPSE TODAY...CULMINATING IN
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
THROUGH THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATION IN THE UPPER
KEYS MAY REACH 70. THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS SOUND...NO CHANGES
NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. FROM SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...CULMINATING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES THIS EVENING. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN FRESHENING WESTERLY BREEZES. A PERIOD OF STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 26/15Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT BOTH EYW AND MTH. OUR AMENDED TAFS THIS MORNING FEATURE MULTIPLE
LINES AS WE EXPECT SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WIND VELOCITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...A
POTENTIAL EPISODE OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY BETWEEN 26/05Z AND
26/09Z. &&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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