Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291749
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
149 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A thin cloud line oriented ENE/WSW extending into the Gulf from
Cape Sable has activated with a few showers over the past hour or
two. Echoes on KBYX Doppler radar are much more widely separated
and weaker over the Straits of Florida. Winds continue to moderate
from the east/southeast this afternoon. Temperatures are in the
upper 80s along the island chain, with dewpoints at or above 75
degrees all reporting locations.

A mid to upper level ridge will hold over South Florida and the
Keys for another 36 hours or so, then push eastward separating
from a somewhat weaker ridge focused over the central Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, high pressure will modulate only slightly
in strength while oscillating very little in position over the
next several days. The upper ridging flattens later this week, and
the surface high pressure starts to get shunted eastward. Our
steering flow will remain relatively deep from the east/southeast
before veering more southerly into the coming weekend. Our
forecast reasoning has not changed for this cycle. The only minor
change will be to the first two periods where I nudged the
gridded POP element down to only 10 percent. That probability
should slowly slide upward Tuesday night through Wednesday, and
plateau near 30 percent through the duration of this forecast.
Isolated/slight chance of TSTMS will be maintained with those
overall chance of showers from mid week onward. No surprises are
in store for this forecast in regards to temperatures...expect
them to be at or just above climo levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect moderating east to southeast breezes through the middle of
this week. At this time, no advisories or cautionary headlines are
in store for any of the waters surrounding the Florida Keys over
the next several days. The general wind direction will be from the
east/southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect east to southeast winds around than 10 knots with a few
migratory showers that may, albeit very briefly, lower ceilings or
visibilities. Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions to prevail at both
the Key West and Marathon International Terminals through 30/18z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Keys Weather History, May 29th, 1960, 2.04 inches of
rain fell at the Key West airport. This set the daily record for
rainfall in Key West which stands after 57 years. Rainfall records
for Key West date back to 1871.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 81 89 81 88 / 10 10 20 20
Marathon 82 92 82 91 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...04
Aviation/Nowcasts....BWC

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