Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 281316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
916 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...In the Middle and upper levels (700-200 mb), latest
available ir imagery overlaid with model streamline analysis as of
800 am detail a well aligned middle and upper anticyclone centered
near 31.5 North 75.5 West. Out to the west of that feature, the axis
of a inverted upper level trough is aligned along the 92 meridian
and bisects the Western Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface and in the lower to middle levels (Surface to 700 mb),
latest IR imagery overlaid with available marine and land surface
observations and analysis as of 800 am detail a weak 1018 mb surface
ridge axis in place from the East Central Gulf of Mexico into the
Western Atlantic near 28 North 70 West. Across the tropics, a
tropical wave axis bisects the Western Caribbean along 81 West
northward to across Cuba to the Florida Straits this morning. As a
result, the 12Z sounding illustrated a moist and unstable moderate
east flow from the surface to about 500 mb, with PWAT at 1.98 inches.

.CURRENTLY...As of 800 am, skies are mostly cloudy across the Florida
Keys and immediate adjoining Florida Bay, immediate Nearshore Gulf
waters north of the Middle and Lower Keys, Hawk Channel, and waters
west of the Lower Keys. Radar still detects scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Florida Keys and all surrounding waters.
Temperatures outside of rain cooled showers are in the lower 80s with
dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s. C-man stations along the
Florida Reef are southeast at 10 to 15 knots outside of showers but
have been gusting to near 30 knots in the heaviest showers and

.SHORT TERM...Similar to yesterday, activity should begin to wane by
later in the morning, as the axis of the wave pulls by. Moderate
ridging will remain in place this afternoon and skies will become
mostly sunny again with temperatures reaching back up to near 90
degrees. Until then some of these showers will produce very heavy
rainfall and wind gusts near 30 knots. Marine weather statements are
active attm. Hence, An earlier update will need to be followed by a
late morning update to take out the likely rain chance and reduce to
either chance of slight chance for the balance of the day.


.MARINE...Rest of today, Small craft will need to exercise caution
across the Florida Straits. Winds across the rest of the marine
districts will be near 15 knots or 10 to 15 knots, but as mentioned
above have been gusting to near 30 knots or greater in scattered to
numerous showers this morning. This could result in special marine
warnings or additional marine weather statements thru the balance of
the morning. Winds will abate a bit this afternoon, falling back to
10 to 15 knots.


.AVIATION...Until 00z/29th, outside of a brief mvfr encounter this
morning, vfr conditions are expected at the Key West and Marathon
terminals. East to southeast winds of around 10 knots with occasional
gusts near 15 knots are anticipated.


.CLIMATE...On this date in Keys Weather History, 1916, 7.14 inches of
rain fell in Key West. This set the daily record rainfall and, for
the month of July, is the wettest day ever. Rainfall records for Key
West date back to 1871.


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Data Collection/Upper Air......Vickery

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