Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 250139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
939 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Air temperatures in the Florida Keys are in the mid 70s, with
dewpoints in the mid 60s. KBYX doppler radar shows a few small
showers moving westward over the western Florida Straits, and weaker
and more elevated echoes over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. High
pressure still remains over the Southeastern United States holding
our winds to a Northeast to East pattern. Winds along the island
chain have held at 10 to 15 MPH. A few elevated CMAN sensors in our
nearshore waters are registering gusts to 20 knots.

.SHORT TERM...Slight changes were made to the forecast this evening
after looking at new guidance. POPS were expanded to include the
western-most marine zones overnight due to very shallow boundaries
moving into the Southeastern Gulf waters. Since low level moisture
and boundary level winds have increased, more mixing is expected and
rain chances therefore slightly increased to dimes. No other
adjustment will be necessary on an upcoming zone forecast update.


.MARINE...Model guidance, ship and CMAN observations have helped to
aid in our decision to extend the Small Craft Advisory through
tomorrow in the Florida Straits. However, there may be a short-
lived lull in the winds in the near term, but confidence is not high
enough to remove the headline through the overnight period.
Regardless, winds will be increasing everywhere on Tuesday.


Expect VFR conditions at the Key West and Marathon terminals
overnight through Tuesday. Scattered cloud bases will be near 5000
feet initially, and may dip closer to 3000 on Tuesday. Low- level
northeast breezes will be maintained around 10 knots, with gusts as
high as 20 knots.


On this date in Keys weather history, in 1923, the low temperature
in Key West dipped to 64 degrees. This set the record low
temperature record for October 24 in Key West. Temperature records
for Key West date back to 1872.


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ052>055-



Public/Marine/Fire...Vickery, 04
Data Collection......Vickery

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