Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 280241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1041 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...A well stacked ridge complex is centered east of the
Carolinas, as such, a 1017 mb surface axis extends west across the
Florida Peninsula. This evening`s sounding sampled deep easterlies
and very little vertical shear. Based on SPC`s sounding climatology,
precipitable water is below the 25th percentile. The boundary layer
is energetic and moist, with a mean wind averaging 20 to 25 knots.
However, above 925 mb, the profile dries out appreciably. The KBYX
radar is mostly echo free and skies are mostly clear.

.FORECAST...During a regime featuring deep east-southeasterlies,
nocturnal coverage will increase due to the cooling of the nearby
large land masses. Similar to last night, an undulation in the
easterlies composed of weak cyclonic curvature and a local moisture
max is progged to push through the Keys coastal waters overnight.
This feature is well portrayed by MIMIC TPW loops. We advertise an
increase in shower and thunderstorm chances overnight, with
precipitation lingering through sunrise. No changes needed nor


.MARINE...Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Straits of
Florida due to easterly winds near 20 knots and seas up to 7 feet.
Small Craft should Exercise Caution in the deeper waters of the
Southeastern Gulf and the western reaches of Hawk Channel due to east
winds of 15 to 20 knots. Breezes will slowly diminish Thursday
morning and Thursday afternoon.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight and through
Thursday morning at both the Key West and Marathon terminals.
Towards daybreak, scattered thunderstorms may impact either terminal
through tomorrow morning. Therefore vicinity thunderstorms will be
included in the terminal forecasts from 09Z to 15Z. Surface winds
will be out of the east southeast between 10 and 15 knots with gusts
near 20 knots possible.


.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ052>055-



Data Collection......Chesser

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