Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 290224
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
924 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH WINDS
BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SERVICE AREA...10 TO 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 MPH OVER THE
ISLANDS AND JUST SHY OF 2O KNOTS ALONG THE REEF. SKIES HAVE BEEN
CLEAR WITH THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE SUPPORTING STRATOCUMULUS EAST
OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE OCEAN
REEF. THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED DRY NORTHEAST FLOW UP THROUGH
8000 FEET...WITH RECENT VAD WIND PROFILE SCANS OFF THE 88D SHOWING
EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 3000 FT.

.SHORT TERM...
SUFFICIENT DRY AIR AND LACK OF A WELL-ORGANIZED INVERSION WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE STRATOCUMUS AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH CREEPING INTO
THE UPPER KEYS BY MORNING. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN WINDS MEANS THE
CURRENT PUBLIC FORECASTS ARE IN LINE WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS...AND
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER ALL
WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS FLORIDA BAY TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AT LONG KEY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 18 TO 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE REEF. EXPECTED CONTINUED INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OR A
LITTLE HIGHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIND BECOMING MORE
NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH COOLER WATERS OVER
FLORIDA BAY AND THE NEARSHORE GULF SIDE OF THE KEYS...THERE IS AN
EXPECTION OF WINDS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY REMAINING SO INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS...WITH WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED NEAR FL035-045 BY
0600Z. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 18 WILL
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS BY 0600Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON NOVEMBER 28 OF 1903 IN THE KEYS...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 61F WAS RECORDED...MAKING IT THE COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. ALSO IN THE SAME
DAY...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 51F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044- 052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DAF
DATA COLLECTION.......EV

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