Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241459
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
958 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY HOVERING AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG WITH DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON THE FAR
DISTANT WATERS 20 TO 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF KEY LARGO AND OCEAN REEF.
SURFACE WISE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FLORIDA
BAY. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES SCANT
MOISTURE (PWAT 1.41 INCHES) WITH A DEEP...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW REACHING UP TO 400 MB. A COUPLE OF SHALLOW ISOTHERMAL
LAYERS ARE EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE AND NEAR 800 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
DESPITE A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ALIGNED OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
300 AND 305 K SURFACES WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY. WITH THAT SAID...LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE ABOVE 700 MB WILL SUPERSEDE THE SUBTLE UPGLIDE
BELOW...SO ONLY ISOLATED POPS SEEM FINE. UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. HENCE...THE ONLY POSSIBLE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST
WOULD BE TO CUT POPS FROM 20 TO 10 PERCENT.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES SOUTH WINDS OF 11 AND 13 KNOTS AT 1
AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE KBYX VWP.
WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE HOLDING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS...LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST ON
THE FLORIDA STRAITS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE STRAITS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.AVIATION...
REST OF TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................EV
DATA ACQUISITION.....................SC

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