Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261300
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
900 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KEY WEST RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST. A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWS A DEFINED SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE EAST...AND EARLY VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER KEYS AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING NEAR 20
KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG HAWK CHANNEL...WITH PULASKI
SHOAL...SMITH SHOAL...AND LONG KEY INDICATING 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALL OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE ISLAND TERMINALS HAVE NEAR 15 KNOTS AND
ALREADY QUITE WARM AT 82 DEGREES WITH 74 PERCENT HUMIDITY.

.FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AT
LEAST. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED JUST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING THE
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS...AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THERE WILL BE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW THAT WILL DISTURB
THE WIND FIELD AND HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PERTURBATIONS WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
THE REASONING FOR THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND HAWK
CHANNEL...WHILE THE REST OF THE KEYS WATERS TO THE NORTH...SMALL
CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 20 KNOTS SOUTH...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN TODAY...AND AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS ARE UP TO 7 FEET ON THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST
IS TO BLAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN
KEY WEST ON MAY 26TH. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET IN
1991 AND LAST RECORDED IN 2000. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ032>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............VICKERY

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