Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 201831

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
231 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Showers and thunderstorms have remained isolated and widely
separated within the Keys service area this afternoon. The
strongest activity is currently favoring the Gulf waters adjacent
and slightly offshore from the Lower Keys. Under mostly sunny
skies elsewhere, temperatures are around 80 degrees with light and
variable winds in place.

Once again, no surprises were supplied by the GFS and most current
ECMWF graphical solutions. A complex upper pattern will see
several cyclonic gyres pivoting across the northern periphery of
the Keys service area. A narrow, low-amplitude mid-level ridge
will hold sway over the immediate area, while expansive high
surface pressure remains aligned nearby over the next few periods.
The high pressure and ridge aloft will begin lifting northward by
late Friday and remain aligned across the mid portion of the state
through the weekend and into early next week. The chance of
measurable precipitation remains slight tonight through the
weekend with a deep and persistently light flow. Slightly deeper
moisture returns early next week as the flow becomes more deeply
aligned from the southeast. Little change in the steering flow and
available moisture is expected beyond that point through the
balance of the forecast. A low chance of measurable precipitation
will be maintained from Monday through Thursday. Expect daytime
high temperatures at or slightly above 90, and overnight lows at
or slightly above 80 through the entire forecast.


Aside from a few widely separated showers and thunderstorms,
expect relatively pleasant recreational boating conditions across
all coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys over the next few
days. Light and variable winds are expected across most of the
waters for the next several periods, then align more from the
southeast this weekend and into early next week.


A cloud line could bring brief episodes of showers/thunderstorms and
sub-VFR conditions to EYW & MTH until 21/00z. Otherwise, prevailing
VFR is expected until at least 20/18z. Winds will be variable, but
generally out of the south and east near 5 knots through Friday

On this date in keys weather history, in 1956, the temperature hit
94 degrees in Key West. This set the daily high temperature
record for July 20th, a record that still stands 61 years later.
Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.


Key West  82  91  83  91 / 10 10 10 10
Marathon  82  93  83  91 / 10 10 10 10





Data Collection......Chesser

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