Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 020434 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND TROUGHING IN THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...YET UNDER
THE WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM UNDER THE RIDGE. EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO BE MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE
OF WHICH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTH...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KPHP TO KTIF THEN DOWN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY AS AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COINCIDED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SB CAPES UP TO 1500
J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS THE CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. HOWEVER...AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN AND
BECOME SOUTHERLY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE STRONGEST LIFT TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE FOCUS AND CONVERGENCE OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT...LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD HELP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW
AND MID 50S...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS. UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP LOWS A BIT
HIGHER...RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK TO WARM SLIGHTLY
COMPARED TO TODAY...AND WHILE ANTICIPATING DEEP AND EFFICIENT
MIXING...LOOKING FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S...WITH SOME PLACES LIKELY TO SEE LOW 90S. WITH THE DEEP
MIXING...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AND WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS SET TO MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA IN THE
AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASED LIFT. THEREFORE...EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT REAL STRONG...BUT WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND UP TO 1500 J/KG CAPE COULD GET A FEW STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVERNIGHT. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...LOW
LEVEL WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A LONG FETCH
TO NORTHWEST TEXAS WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE CAN BE TAPPED AND
EVENTUALLY PULLED ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A RESULT OF THAT...MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A FRONT COMING INTO NEBRASKA MONDAY. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTH...CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY WITH COOLING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NCNTL NEB SHOULD CONTINUE TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS LAST UNTIL 15Z SATURDAY AS NEW STORMS FORM
FARTHER WEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS NERN MT/NW ND AND WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO NCNTL
NEB 18Z-21Z SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC





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