Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 011722
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 700-600MB LAYER WAS SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. WEAK BUT AMPLE LIFT WAS OCCURRING IN
THIS LAYER AS VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVED THROUGH THE MID
LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. SO ADDED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER WESTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEADLINE THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO IN THE KVTN
FORECAST INCLUDED A VCTS PREVAILING GROUP...YET THINK THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR A STORM TO PASS OVER THE TERMINAL SO PUT IN
A TEMPO GROUP FROM 21Z THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...STORM
CHANCES ARE LESS LIKELY SO DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE KLBF FORECAST. THERE LOOKS TO BE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL AS WELL...BUT JUST DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WHERE STORMS DO OCCUR THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONE
OTHER THING TO MENTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT ADDED THIS INTO THE FORECASTS AT THIS
POINT AS THE NAM IS THE ONLY INDICATOR AND IT MISSED THIS SAME
THING THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR FOR A NEED TO INCLUDE IN UPCOMING
FORECASTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS







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