Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 301131
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AT 08Z...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO WRN NEBR AND ERN CO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR BENEATH THIS RIDGE.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALLIANCE AND CHADRON.
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 32 AT PINE RIDGE TO 46 AT BROKEN BOW AND
ONEILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. AS H85 TEMPS BY LATE AFTN WARM TO 7C AT ONL TO 14C
AT IML...THIS WILL BRING HIGHS TO NEAR 65 AT VTN...ANW AND ONL TO
NEAR 70 AT IML. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TODAY. AT 500MB...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXTENDS FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY INTO THE TX GULF COAST WHILE AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOME FLATTENED
OUT ACROSS WASHINGTON...NRN IDAHO AND MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...A 500MB DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN WRN MONTANA AND IDAHO
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER RIDGE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
NRN WY AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND LOWS NOT AS COLD. LOWS RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 IN THE ERN PANHANDLE TO NEAR 43 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

EARLY EVENING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S MOST AREAS WILL INCREASE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 40S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DECENT MOISTURE WILL RETURN
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH
UPPER 50S SFC DEW PTS AND H85 DEW PTS NEAR 12C OR SO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO CREATE SFC BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE. BULK
SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AND
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. RIGHT NOW THINKING PANHANDLE
STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS...AIDED BY INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...AND TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE MONDAY...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS ANOTHER SOUTHERLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK OF POSSIBLE CLUSTER/MCS.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND TRACKS THE
CLUSTER MORE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
RIDGING...AND HAS THE STORM CLUSTER FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WILL GO WITH JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE INCREASING POPS IN ANY ONE
AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW FREELY NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SFC DEW PTS NEARING 70 DEGREES IN SPOTS.
IN ADDITION...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL HELP PULL DEEP
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SETLED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL BRING
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE WILL BE A GRADUALY INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

CURRENT FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND NORTH
PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS REMAIN IN PLACE. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER SYSTEMS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH INCREASE RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
EXIST AT TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON RIVER
LEVELS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST WARNING INFORMATION FOR CURRENT
CRESTS AND TIMES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG







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