Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231134 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
634 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Models in fair agreement and will use a blend for the forecast.
Main feature is surface high pressure with return southeast flow
into the Nebraska Panhandle. Stationary boundary parked over the
eastern plains of Wyoming again today. Convection forecast
yesterday along the boundary never occurred. With more return flow
today and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to around 90,
cooler air aloft will increase instability through the late
afternoon. Low level jet to increase through the early evening to
around 30 kts, but not confident with convective forecast with no
focus for lift. Highs today in the 80s with warmer temperatures to
the west. Isolated thunderstorms tonight with the focus to the
west. Lows tonight around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

A couple of opportunities for rainfall will start the long term
period. Low level moisture will return to the area Thursday, with
surface dew points rising into the lower to middle 60s and H850mb
dew points around 15C. This increase in moisture will be ahead of
a decent shortwave trough approaching from the west. As large
scale ascent overspreads the area by late afternoon,
thunderstorms should develop along an inverted surface trough
which will extend from roughly Sidney to Valentine. Flow aloft
will carry this activity southeast into central and southwest
Nebraska Thursday evening. Severe threat seems fairly low due to
weak winds aloft, but instability is strong and multicell storms
with strong outflow winds cannot be ruled out. Some hail could
accompany the strongest cores as well as locally heavy

Shortwave will weaken as it slowly moves east across the
area Friday, then another wave will move southeast across the
northern plains Friday night into Saturday. Appears that a cluster
of storms will develop across western South Dakota Friday
afternoon and move southeast into north central Nebraska Friday
night and linger into Saturday morning. Northwest flow aloft then
increases later Saturday into Saturday night, and another weak
wave during this time will keep shower/thunder potential going.

Sunday into the first of the week, upper level ridging will begin
to expand northward across the Rockies. This will turn the upper
flow more northerly across our region, with rain chances ending
and skies clearing as drier air aloft moves south.

Near or slightly below normal temperatures are expected through
the period, with highs around 80 degrees across eastern portions
of north central Nebraska, and mid 80s across the rest of central
into western Nebraska.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Visual flight rules expected today across western Nebraska. Some
low level wind shear at KLBF early this morning. Mostly clear
skies today with some convective clouds develop this afternoon.
Fairly strong gusty southerly winds are expected this afternoon.




LONG TERM...Taylor
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